US Army Retired Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis has 21 years of military experience and has had four actual combat times. He recently published an article in "National Interest" in "National Interests", expressing his views on the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
His general view is as follows:
1. The war with China is difficult to support the US economy at present;
2. The United States is too far from the Taiwan Strait to support the war with a great power;
3. In East Asia, the US military has no confidence in facing China;
He finally concluded that: The United States will pay a heavy price to defend Taiwan, and there is no reason to bear the risk of defeat or bankruptcy when the interests of the United States are not directly threatened.
Davis's remarks may be because he really understands the situation in the Taiwan Strait, or maybe it is just a statement that the US military wants to ask Congress for money.
Overall, Davis's views are somewhat similar to those of the author. In an earlier article:
"The reason for 2 points, no matter how you jump in Taiwan, it's useless! 》
"Three factors determine the possibility of "China-US military conflict"! 》
The author has introduced in detail that compared with China and the United States, the United States is stronger than the ocean fleet, while China is stronger on land. If it is a long-distance war, China will not be able to compete with the United States at present. However, if it is near China's coast, the Chinese fleet, with the cooperation of land-based aviation forces and land missiles, the United States will basically have no chance of winning with two aircraft carriers.
There is another very critical point. The American labor force expedition lacks the war fulcrum for fighting against China in East Asia. If Japan and South Korea are allowed to be the base to attack China, then Japan and South Korea will inevitably face China's devastating blow. The fight between gods makes themselves cannon fodder, and Japan and South Korea will definitely not be so stupid. A good proof is that when US-North Korea relations were tense in 2016, there were rumors that North Korea would use artillery to attack Seoul, and then the anti-war voices of South Korean people rose and rose. After Moon Jae-in came to power, he would quickly improve relations with North Korea and then support him to reach a record high.
To this day, if anyone thinks that the United States can scare China and deal with two aircraft carriers at sea, then its IQ is definitely not at the average level of human beings.
From the perspective of interests, Taiwan is China's core interest, but it is not the core interest of the United States , which determines the different prices China and the United States are willing to pay. Taiwan is just a pawn of the United States to the United States. When China does not directly threaten the interests of the United States, who is willing to lose his life for a pawn?
There are roughly three points that we really need to pay attention to:
First, Beware of The United States induces conflicts in the Taiwan Strait
The United States has listed China as a strategic competitor and tried every means to suppress China. This is the top priority of the United States at present.
However, the United States lacks strategic means to suppress China and imagines to dismantle China like a deal with the Soviet Union. As a result, the Chinese become more united; Pompeo tries to start a "new Cold War" against China, and now he goes to China and Europe to form gangs. He goes forward, but his foot is disinfected by the visited country and does not participate.
The Taiwan Strait issue is like a time bomb, always there. does not rule out that the United States itself will not participate, but encourages Tsai Ing-wen to detonate the bomb , which hurts both sides of the Taiwan Strait, but the United States can escape unscathed.
Second, be careful that Tsai Ing-wen is "rushing"
We think from Tsai Ing-wen's perspective, and she actually knows that the further we go, the bigger the gap in strength between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, and the more balanced the power of China and the United States will become, that means that the more we go, the less likely it is to achieve Taiwan independence.
If you were Tsai Ing-wen, what would you do?
Normally, it is definitely to pick favorable opportunities as early as possible to continuously promote Taiwan independence, or even take risks, otherwise the more you go back, the more desperate it will be.
Recently, there was news that Taiwan spent 8 billion US dollars to purchase 66 F-16V fighter jets from the United States, which is something we need to pay attention to.
Third, China pays attention to the Indian Ocean
In the author's opinion, the United States has no advantage in calling China in the Taiwan Strait. What can really cause trouble for China is precisely the Indian Ocean.
At present, China's ocean-going fleet is not strong. If something happens in the Taiwan Strait, the United States and India collude to block the Indian Ocean, it will easily cause some difficulties to our energy and trade channels. See "China Need to Pay attention to the Indian Ocean"
. We need to think about it and crack it.
We need to be careful and fully prepared for the above issues. If others are anxious to help unify the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, we can complete this historical feat with lightning speed.
Overall, to this day, Taiwan independence has no chance. Generally speaking, the two sides basically compete for resources (personnel, minerals, industrial and agricultural productivity, land area, etc.). Whoever has a larger size and more resources will be more likely to win. Regarding the Taiwan Strait, there is an indisputable fact that faces mainland China: Taiwan is too small, the United States is too far away!
