A new week is coming, and the China Business Network client reminds you to pay attention to the following financial events:
data release
Next week, China will release economic data such as December official manufacturing PMI, December non-manufacturing PMI, December comprehensive manufacturing PMI, etc.; internationally, the United States will release economic data such as December Markit manufacturing PMI final value, December unemployment rate, December seasonally adjusted non-agricultural employment population and other economic data.
market hotspots
1. Special additional deductions on January 1, 2019 are officially implemented
"Interim Measures for Special Additional Deductions for Personal Income Tax" (hereinafter referred to as the "Measures") will be implemented from January 1 next year. The "Measures" show that children's education, continuing education, housing rent, and expenditures for elderly people are deducted in a fixed amount, with deduction amounts of 1,000 yuan/month, 4,800 yuan/year or 3,600 yuan/year, 1,500 yuan/month or 1,100 yuan/month or 800 yuan/month and 2,000 yuan/month respectively; serious illness medical treatment is a deduction based on actual deduction. During each tax year, the part incurred by the taxpayer whose own medical expenses exceed 15,000 yuan can be deducted within the limit of 80,000 yuan/year.
With the introduction of special additional deductions, the personal income tax deduction standard will be significantly improved. According to the standards of the interim measures, for young and middle-aged people who have elderly people, young people, mortgage or rent expenses, the personal income tax deduction standard is expected to be increased to 9,000 yuan/month or even higher.
2. It is expected that the pressure of RMB depreciation will be reduced in 2019, and the decline in foreign exchange deposits will be narrowed
Research report of the Financial Research Center of the Bank of Communications said that in January 2019, the most important event affecting the foreign exchange market is the upcoming face-to-face Sino-US trade negotiations, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate due to the progress of the negotiations. Looking ahead to the whole year of 2019, considering the impact of factors such as steady growth in the US economy but downward pressure, slowing downward interest rate hikes in the Federal Reserve, prudent and loose domestic monetary policy, and uncertainty in the trade situation, it is expected that the RMB will still have depreciation pressure, but it has been reduced compared with this year's depreciation pressure. Overall, the RMB is likely to depreciate slightly against the US dollar. It is expected that foreign exchange deposits may continue to decline in December. Looking ahead to 2019, it is expected that the cross-border capital flow situation will remain generally stable throughout the year, but the fluctuations are still not small. Foreign exchange deposits are expected to continue to decline slightly overall.
3. After New Year's Day, the reserve requirement ratio may be reduced
. CITIC Securities Mingming research team believes that before the Spring Festival in 2019, the liquidity environment faces the influence of major factors such as high pressure on fund maturity, strong uncertainty in fiscal deposits, significant increase in cash demand, and interbank certificates of deposit mature in the middle and late quarters. Liquidity is facing fluctuations and requires the central bank to hedge operations. It is expected that the central bank will adopt the method of lowering the reserve requirement ratio and TMLF in January to conduct medium- and long-term liquidity injections, and combine it with short-term cross-region liquidity injections to create a relatively stable capital interest rate.
Central Bank China News Service Wang Chao photo
plus the fourth regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee in 2018 also proposed to "increase the countercyclical cycle of monetary policy" to require monetary policy orientation to at least maintain the current looseness. It is a natural thing to make large amounts of liquidity supply maintain a reasonable level of liquidity. Back to the operation tools, "locking short and releasing long" will continue, and the probability of lowering the reserve requirement ratio will replace CRA last year is relatively high. For the specific time point, the reference CRA was announced on December 29, 2017 and launched on January 16, 2018; this reserve requirement ratio cut is likely to be launched after New Year's Day and will be implemented before and after the expiration of interbank certificates of deposit and tax payment factors.
Football Frontier
1, New Stock Opportunities
There will be 3 new stocks issued next week, namely Blue Bio, Qingdao Bank, and Suzhou Longjie.
Public information shows that Qingdao Weilan Biotechnology Co., Ltd. was registered and established in 2004. It mainly has four main businesses: enzyme preparations, microecology, vaccines, and animal welfare, 26 operating units and 12 subsidiaries.
Qingdao Bank is a joint-stock commercial bank, registered and established in 1996, providing users with services in personal banking, wealth management, corporate banking, trade finance, etc. The bank has set up multiple branches in Qingdao, Jinan, Weihai and other places.
Suzhou Longjie Special Fiber Co., Ltd. is a large private high-tech enterprise specializing in the production of differentiated polyester filaments. The company's main business is the research, development, production and sales of differentiated polyester fiber .At present, five major series of products have been formed, including differentiated FDY, differentiated POY, differentiated DTY, differentiated polyester industrial wire, new polyester fiber (PTT fiber, PBT fiber), and more than 100 varieties.
Quick view of new stocks Screenshot source: Wind
2. Institutions look at the future market
Huatai-Brazil Fund: A shares performance bottom may appear in the second half of 2019
Outlook for the A-share market in 2019. Fang Lunyu, director of the investment department of Huatai-Brazil Fund and proposed fund manager of Huatai-Brazil Core Advantage, said that the economy may show a U-shaped trend next year, and the performance growth rate of listed companies is expected to stabilize in the second half of the year. Considering that the market bottom will appear before the performance bottom, it is judged that A-shares are currently in the bottom area. It is worth noting that leading varieties with good fundamentals may bottom out and rebound in advance.
Based on this analysis, he said that Huatai-Prudential Core Advantage Fund will use high dividend assets as the bottom position. In the bottom area of valuation, high-dividend and low-valuation asset allocation value recognition is high. At the same time, high-quality growth companies, especially technology companies supported by national industrial policies and with core competitive advantages, are facing excellent development opportunities and are also worthy of attention.
Fang Lunyu said that the 5G license + national strategic plan will be implemented in 2019, and the scale construction will be around 2020, and the peak of market sentiment is expected to appear in 2019. With the military reform in place, the winning bid orders of military-industrial enterprises are beginning to rebound. The pharmaceutical industry is mainly affected by the 4+7 volume-based procurement policy, generic drugs are mainly affected. On the contrary, the golden age of innovative drugs will gradually begin, and the medical service sector will also benefit from the general trend of population aging.
New Era Securities : Improved financing channels for science and technology innovation enterprises are the key construction in 2019
Reference CDR and Shanghai-London Stock Connect. New Era Securities expects that the construction of the corresponding system of Science and Technology Innovation Board will take about 2 months; the first batch of science and technology innovation board listed companies will be mainly high-tech enterprises, referring to the number of the first batch of 28 enterprises on the GEM, and the number of the first batch of science and technology innovation board listed companies is 20-30, with a total fundraising scale of about 50 billion yuan. Referring to the US stock and Hong Kong stock IPO, New Era Securities believes that after the first issuance application for the Science and Technology Innovation Board meets the strict information disclosure requirements, the Shanghai Stock Exchange will review the company based on the pre-set market value, income and other standards, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission will conduct final approval after the review is approved.
Referring to the IPO of US stocks and Hong Kong stocks, the pricing and allocation of first-time companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board will focus on independent allocation. The proportion and pricing autonomy of institutional investors will be improved. The pricing standards of enterprises will be more flexible, and the starting point of the initial public offering valuation will be more reasonable. Referring to Industrial FULL, New Era Securities believes that the issuance of Science and Technology Innovation Board companies will introduce strategic allocation, and Zhanlei investors will have a lock-in period of more than one year, and offline investors may be partially locked.
Yang Delong : The marginal negative factors in 2019 improve. A-shares will welcome more investment opportunities.
Looking forward to 2019, these negative factors affecting the A-share market are actually improving marginally. Of course, they have not been completely eliminated, but marginal improvements will bring opportunities for recovery to the market. The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to re-establish 3,000 points. Whether there is a better performance depends on whether these uncertain factors can be eliminated and to what extent.
In 2019, we can focus on exploring investment opportunities from two directions: one is to find undervalued opportunities from some high-quality white horse stocks that were wrongly killed. High-quality blue-chip stocks are some leading companies in my country's economy, or companies with core competitiveness. Due to the sharp decline in the market this year, their valuations have fallen to the historical bottom and have the value of buying at the bottom. As market confidence improves and recovers, these sectors and individual stocks will have relatively good chances of recovery.
The second is to pay attention to the investment opportunities in emerging industries brought about by economic transformation, especially in the technology industry. Leading technology stocks represent the direction of economic transformation, such as 5G, artificial intelligence, new energy, big data, etc. These are the directions of future economic transformation and will perform relatively well in 2019. (Zhao Jingfan)
