Factors affecting the current steel price
1. International oil prices restarted the sharp drop mode, OPEC said that the tight oil supply has not been alleviated
International oil prices started a sharp drop mode again on Tuesday, with both U.S. oil and Berry Oil falling by more than 7%. With the increase in the number of new crown cases in Asia, the United States will soon release inflation data for June, and market concerns about the outlook for demand increased. In addition, the strengthening of the US dollar has put pressure on oil prices, and while increasing risk aversion sentiment has made oil less attractive to investors.
analysts' views: As central banks in various countries have launched a large-scale hike in to curb inflation, a prevalent argument has been taking place in the market that interest rate hikes will cause the economy of the United States and even the global economy to slow down or even recession, bearish sentiment permeates the commodity market, and crude oil prices have fallen sharply. Since steel and crude oil are both commodity , the market's bearishness on steel is also continuing to ferment, which is in a negative way for medium and short-term steel prices.
2, General Administration of Customs : Imports and exports in June increased by 14.9% year-on-year
According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, in the first half of this year, the total import and export of three provinces and one city in the Yangtze River Delta region was 7.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.3% year-on-year. Among them, imports and exports in June were 1.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.9% year-on-year, 0.6 percentage points higher than the overall national growth rate during the same period, and the contribution rate of to the national foreign trade growth was nearly 40%. From the perspective of specific provinces and cities, in June, imports and exports of Anhui, Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 19.7%, 17.5% and 16% year-on-year, respectively, 5.4, 3.2 and 1.7 percentage points higher than the overall national growth rate during the same period. Especially in Shanghai, which was most affected by the epidemic, imports and exports have resumed positive growth in June, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6% and a month-on-month increase of 35.6%.
Analysts' opinion: Year-on-year growth in exports indicates that overseas demand has recovered, and there are also reasons for the concentrated release of backlog of demand after the epidemic. The growth in demand is good news for the manufacturing industry, and the increase in orders also indicates an increase in the purchase of raw materials in the future, which will be beneficial to the medium-term steel prices.
3. In early July, key steel enterprises produced 2.0748 million tons of crude steel per day
Latest data released by the China Steel Association, In early July 2022, key statistics on steel enterprises produced a total of 20.7476 million tons of crude steel, 19.1549 million tons of pig iron, and 19.7305 million tons of steel (the statistical samples this month increased , Shiheng Special Steel and Jilin Jingang units). Among them, the daily output of crude steel was 2.0748 million tons, a decrease of 1.98% compared with the same diameter compared with the previous ten-day decrease; the daily output of pig iron was 1.9155 million tons, a decrease of 2.09% compared with the previous ten-day decrease; the daily output of steel was 1.9731 million tons, a decrease of 9.36% compared with the previous ten-day decrease. At the end of the ten-day period, the steel inventory was 18.0479 million tons, an increase of 1.0993 million tons over the previous ten-day period, an increase of 6.49%. It decreased by 499,600 tons compared with the same period last month, a decrease of 2.69%; it increased by 6.751 million tons from the beginning of the year, an increase of 59.76%; it increased by 3.990,600 tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 28.39%.
Analysts' opinion: Steel production has declined, but inventory has increased instead of falling, indicating that market demand is still sluggish. After several rounds of rise and fall, traders generally suffer large losses and are more cautious in getting goods. If steel prices continue to decline, merchants will continue to choose to wait and see, and steel demand is expected to continue to weaken.
market price
Steel price fell across the board
Zhonggang.com APP data shows:
rebar 24 markets, 23 fell 20-8 0. The average price of 20mm HRB400E is 4,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 59 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; among the 424 markets of
hot coil html, 21 markets fell 10-100, and the average price of 4.75 hot-rolled plate coil is 4,030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 76 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; among the 22 markets of
medium and thick plate, a decrease of 10-170, and the average price of 14-20mm ordinary medium and medium plate is 4,410 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
(It can be seen from the picture that since the beginning of July, steel prices have been in a downward state)
Steel mills have comprehensively lowered prices
According to data from China Steel Network Information Research Institute, a total of 20 steel mills have adjusted prices today, of which:
has been reduced by 20, accounting for 100%, with a price adjustment of 30-80 yuan/ton; the largest decline is Yangtze Steel Building Materials.
is up-regulated without;
is stable without.
Futures price decline slowed down
htmlOn July 13, the main thread fell 87 and closed at 3910, and the main hot coil fell 92 closed at 3917. Futures Steel continued to continue its downward trend, falling below 3900 for a time. Tangshan , ordinary square billet steadily closed at 3700.
Steel price forecast:
13th morning session began to fluctuate at low levels, and domestic construction steel prices continued to fall in the morning. From the perspective of trading, the decline in the afternoon spiral slowed down, and rose slightly in the late trading of . Both production and sales of steel mills have declined, their enthusiasm for terminal procurement is poor, their wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and their transactions are obviously weak throughout the day. In the short term, on the one hand, the market is still in the off-season for consumption, and demand recovery is difficult to continue; on the other hand, the recurrence of the epidemic has added a hint of worry to the market. Moreover, the external environment is complicated, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike is imminent, which has further exacerbated the bearish mentality. Therefore, it is expected that steel prices will run weakly tomorrow.
