(Original title: Global new energy passenger car sales increased by 54% year-on-year in September)
(Original title: Global new energy passenger car sales increased by 54% year-on-year in September)
9 Global new energy passenger car sales increased by 54% year-on-year in September
September, global new energy passenger car sales (pure electric, plug-in hybrid) hit the second-highest sales in a single month in history.
On November 7, information from the First Electric Vehicle Network showed that the global sales of new energy passenger cars in September were about 77,000, second only to the highest record of 86,900 in December 2015, an increase of 54% over the same period last year. In the first nine months of this year, the cumulative sales of new energy passenger cars worldwide exceeded 500,000, reaching 515,000. At this rate, it is expected that the annual sales of this year will reach 800,000.
In the top ten sales rankings of a single model, Tesla won the top two. Model S won the championship for the fourth consecutive month, with a total of 7,910 vehicles delivered in the global market; Model X rose from the previous seventh place to the second place, with delivery volume reaching a new high in September, reaching 5,484 vehicles.
BYD : The growth rate in the first three quarters is stable, and the future of new businesses is promising
BYD 002594
Research organization: Ping An Securities Analyst: Wang De'an, Yu Bing Writing date: 2016-11-02
The company released its third quarter report, and achieved operating income of 27.85 billion yuan in 3Q 2016, an increase of 64.7%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.404 billion yuan, a decrease of 6% year-on-year, and net profit deducted by 1.396 billion yuan, an increase of 361.3% year-on-year; in the first three quarters of 2016, operating income increased by 50.1% year-on-year to 72.8 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.8% year-on-year to 3.66 billion yuan, and net profit deducted by non-network increased by 609.8% year-on-year to 3.46 billion yuan, and EPS was 1.38 yuan, an increase of 75.7% year-on-year.
product structure optimization drives the increase in gross profit margin: the company's gross profit margin in 3Q2016 was 21.5%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points from the gross profit margin in 3Q2015 (18.3%). The increase in gross profit margin is mainly due to the increase in the proportion of new energy vehicles and the improvement in the structure of traditional fuel vehicles. The sales expense ratio increased by 0.6 percentage points compared with the same period last year to 3.8%, mainly due to the increase in advertising fees and after-sales service fees; the management expense ratio was 8.7%, basically the same as last year.
New energy vehicles maintain a good momentum and are expected to continue to grow in the fourth quarter: 3Q sold a total of 35,006 new energy vehicles, including 14,534 pure electric passenger cars, 16,641 plug-in hybrid passenger cars and 3,831 pure electric buses. The company sold 82,000 new energy vehicles in the first three quarters, an increase of 114.2% year-on-year, including 30,133 pure electric passenger cars (+361.8%), 45,179 plug-in passenger cars (+53.8%), and 7,098 pure electric buses (+174.5%). It is expected that 15,000 pure electric bus orders will be obtained in 2016, and it is expected to achieve more than 12,000 pure electric buses throughout the year and achieve more than 100,000 new energy passenger cars sales. Overall, the company's new energy vehicle sales have shown a quarter-by-quarter increase throughout the year, and are expected to continue to grow in the fourth quarter.
" cloud rail " was launched and entered the trillion-dollar market: In October, the cross-seater monorail developed by BYD held a global launch ceremony in Shenzhen, officially announcing its entry into the trillion-level rail transit field. "Cloud Rail" is another strategic expansion of BYD's core technologies such as batteries, motors, and electronic control. Compared with subways, the cloud rail has low cost, short construction cycle and flexible marshalling. It is not only a powerful supplement to transportation in big cities, but also meets the needs of third- and fourth-tier cities. At present, BYD has signed a strategic cooperation agreement for the monorail rail transit industry with the China Development Bank, and has reached a preliminary agreement with multiple cities. The trillion-level market is waiting for development, and the future is worth looking forward to.
Profit forecast and investment advice: It is expected that the demand in the new energy vehicle market will be stronger in the fourth quarter, and the company's new energy vehicle business is expected to continue to grow; the hot sales of SUV models will drive the growth of traditional automobile business. The mobile phone business is expected to maintain growth, and the solar business may be under pressure. Although the extent of subsidies for new energy vehicles decreased in 2017, BYD is expected to continue to maintain its leading position in the industry with its scale and its vertical industrial chain. The company's new energy passenger car products are constantly enriching, and the sales of new energy buses continue to increase. The company's performance is expected to maintain a rapid growth trend. The net profit attributable to shareholders in 2016 is expected to be between RMB 5 and RMB 5.2 billion, and the company's performance forecast is given to the EPS of RMB 1.88/2.57/3.15 in 2016/2017/2018, maintaining a "strongly recommended" rating.
Risk warning: 1) The sales of new energy passenger cars did not meet expectations; 2) The unit price/gross profit margin of electric buses has decreased.
JAC Automobile: Performance meets expectations and join forces with Volkswagen to accelerate the new energy strategy and promote
JAC Automobile 600418
Research institution: Everbright Securities Analyst: Liu Yang Written Date: 2016-11-03
Event: The company announced its third-quarter report. In the first three quarters of 2016, the company achieved revenue of 33.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.4%, and achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 650 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%, a gross profit margin of 9.75%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, and EPS of 0.47 yuan.
sales have grown steadily and profitability is stable.
In the first three quarters of 2016, the company achieved sales of 477,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%, basically the same as the growth rate of domestic automobile sales. Among them, SUV sales reached about 200,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%; trucks benefited from improved demand, with a cumulative sales of 196,000 units in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%; new energy vehicles achieved sales of 13,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 125%, maintaining rapid growth. The net profit margin in the first three quarters was 2.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. The period expense rate was 12.4%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, the sales expense rate, management expense rate and financial expense rate changed by +0.2, 0 and +0.1 percentage points respectively, which remained basically stable.
joins forces with Volkswagen, and the new energy strategy is steadily advancing.
The company's private placement of 4.5 billion yuan is mainly invested in new energy passenger vehicles, commercial vehicle projects and related core components projects. It is planned that by 2025, the total production and sales of new energy vehicles will account for more than 30%, and the new energy strategy will enter the fast lane. Recently, the company signed a memorandum of understanding with Volkswagen, and initially reached a cooperation intention in the field of new energy vehicles. It plans to establish a joint venture company integrating research, production and sales based on new energy vehicle products, accounting for 50% of each of the two parties. We believe that the cooperation between JAC Motors and Volkswagen is expected to improve JAC Motors' technical level and brand premium capabilities, and we are optimistic about the improvement of JAC Motors' performance and valuation.
maintains the buy rating, with a target price of 16 yuan for 6 months.
The company's truck business has gradually stabilized and rebounded, SUV sales have grown explosively, new energy vehicles have developed rapidly, and performance valuations are expected to increase both. Without considering this additional issuance, we expect the company's EPS from 2016 to 2018 to be 0.68 yuan, 0.89 yuan, and 1.08 yuan. Maintain the buy rating, with a target price of 16 yuan for 6 months.
Risk warning: Automobile production and sales decline; new energy strategy is progressing less than expected.
Yutong Bus: Q3 net profit YOY+13% control cost adjustment and structure enhance company profitability
Yutong Bus 600066
Research institution: Qunyi Securities (Hong Kong) Analyst: Qunyi Securities (Hong Kong) Research Institute Writing date: 2016-10-28
Conclusions and suggestions:
The company's revenue in the first three quarters was 21.659 billion yuan, YOY+14.42%; net profit was 2.276 billion yuan, YOY+22.04%; among them, Q3 revenue was 8.391 billion yuan, YOY-1.77%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.041 billion yuan, YOY+13.26%. The company's total bus sales in Q3 was 17,700, YOY-12%, and the new energy bus sales were about 5,800, YOY-3%. The company continued to maintain a good trend of better revenue growth than sales growth and better profit growth than revenue growth. In the sales structure, the company's Q3 new energy bus accounted for about 33%, an increase of about 4pct compared with the same period last year. The sales growth rate of large, medium and light passenger was -15%, 25%, and -53%, respectively. New energy and large and medium-sized chemicals continued to improve the company's profitability. The decline in battery costs and the adjustment of product structure have led to the company's Q3 gross profit margin of 27.04%, an increase of 2.54pct year-on-year and 1.75pct month-on-month. This year, the country continues to rectify the new energy vehicle industry. As the industry leader, the company will benefit from the increase in industry concentration
. We expect the company's revenue in 2016 and 2017 to be 34.2 billion yuan and 36.6 billion yuan, YOY+10% and +7% respectively; net profits are 4 billion yuan and 4.3 billion yuan, YOY+14% and 8%, and EPS is 1.82 yuan and 1.96 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E of 12 times and 11 times. Maintain buying advice. The target price is 26 yuan, and the dynamic PE in 2017 is 13×.
Q3 revenue YOY-1.77%, net profit YOY+13.26%: The company's revenue in the first three quarters was 21.659 billion yuan, YOY+14.42%; net profit was 2.276 billion yuan, YOY+22.04%; EPS was 1.03 yuan. Among them, Q3 revenue was 8.391 billion yuan, YOY-1.77%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.041 billion yuan, YOY+13.26%; EPS was 0.47 yuan. The company's total sales in the first three quarters were 47,500 vehicles, YOY+7.5%; new energy bus sales were 13,000 vehicles, YOY+32%; among which the total sales of Q3 buses were 17,700 vehicles, YOY-12%, and new energy bus sales were about 5,800 vehicles, YOY-3%.In Q3, the company continued to maintain a good trend that revenue growth was better than sales growth and profit growth was better than revenue growth.
controls costs and adjusts structure to improve the company's profitability: the company's Q3 gross profit margin is 27.04%, an increase of 2.54pct year-on-year and 1.75pct month-on-month, mainly due to the company's cost reduction and structural optimization. Battery costs account for 30% to 50% of the vehicle cost. The decline in battery prices since the middle of the year has improved the company's profitability; the company's sales structure of Q3 accounts for about 33%, an increase of about 4pct compared with the same period last year, and the proportion of pure electric buses among new energy buses has also increased. Due to changes in subsidy policies, the company's Q3 sales growth rate was -15%, 25% and -53% respectively, and the proportion of mid-sized cars increased. New energy and large-scale chemical industry continue to improve the company's profitability.
Industry leaders are expected to benefit from the rectification of the new energy vehicle market: this year the country continues to rectify the new energy vehicle industry, and seize fraud and fill loopholes, and measures are frequent. In 2015 and the first half of 2016, the sales of new energy buses in the top five, Suzhou , Jinlong, was recovered for subsidies and fined 50%, and the central government's financial subsidy qualification was cancelled from 2016. Under the heavy rectification, the concentration of the new energy bus industry is expected to continue to increase, and the company, as the industry leader, will benefit from it. We maintain the company's forecast of 25,000 new energy bus sales; it is expected that the company's annual sales will reach 71,000 vehicles, YOY+7%.
Profit Forecast: We expect the company's revenue in 2016 and 2017 to be 34.2 billion and 36.6 billion yuan, YOY+10% and +7% respectively; net profits are 4 billion and 4.3 billion yuan, YOY+14% and 8%, and EPS is 1.82 yuan and 1.96 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to P/E of 12 times and 11 times. Maintain buying advice. The target price is 26 yuan, and the dynamic PE in 2017 is 13×.
Zhongtong Bus: The current situation of hesitation, a bright future,
Zhongtong Bus 000957
Research institution: Zhejiang Securities Analyst: Li Feng Writing date: 2016-08-19
It is estimated that the sales volume of new energy buses will be 12,000 (YoY+14%) throughout the year.
The company's 16-year interim report achieved a profit of approximately 290 million (YoY+505%), which is basically the same as the performance forecast; the company's revenue in the first half of the year was about 4 billion (YoY+95%), corresponding to the sales of 7,908 passenger buses, ASP was approximately 500,000, up 50% (330,000) year-on-year (330,000), an increase of 25% (400,000) over the whole year of 2015. Benefiting from the first half of 2016, the company's sales structure was mainly caused by the higher-priced 8-meter pure electric bus. We can see the company's outstanding growth in recent years of deepening its new energy bus market.
Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we expressed concerns about the sales of Q3 new energy buses, mainly because the policy is in the window period: 1) The previous market rumors that the adjustment of bus subsidies released in July has been controversial in the time window, which makes it difficult for manufacturers to make judgments on the structure and pricing of the product; 2) In the process of manufacturers in advance to sell cars, many financial indicators are already under great pressure. If income cannot flow in in the form of cash, it will be difficult for companies to be motivated to conduct large-scale production. We have slightly lowered the company's sales forecast for new energy buses in 2016 from the previous 13,000 to 12,000. If we look at it in a single quarter, Q3 will be the lowest for the whole year, with an estimated 1,800 vehicles (YoY-47%). For Q4, due to stricter supervision, it is difficult to replicate the 15 young customers' market in 2016. The company's sales in Q4 are expected to be 4,200 vehicles (YoY-18%).
In the short term, there is certain pressure on the balance sheet.
We observe that the company's balance sheet is under pressure in the short term: 1) Assets: The company's accounts receivable is 5.9 billion yuan, of which the national subsidy receivable increased to 4.03 billion yuan, with an increase of about 2 billion yuan in the first half of 2016, which can be attributed to the national subsidy of 6,000 new energy buses. This directly led to the company's current operating cash flow of -1 billion yuan; 2) Liabilities: Q2 new short-term loans were 720 million yuan, with a book of 931 million yuan, and the debt-to-asset ratio reached 77%, both of which were historical highs. This means that if manufacturers continue to use advance payment methods to sell new energy buses, they will face greater financial pressure. But from a positive perspective: 1) The company recently plans to issue 1 billion yuan of short-term bonds and 500 million yuan of medium-term notes to alleviate the liquidity of the company's funds; 2) We understand that the market demand for new energy buses is still good, and the sluggish Q3 is more due to the manufacturers' shrinking supply based on policy uncertainty, which also makes us continue to be optimistic about the market after the subsidies are clear.
company is expected to become a leading enterprise in the new energy revolution and is firmly optimistic about it for a long time.
We estimate that the total profit of the new energy bus industry during the maturity period is 10 billion yuan. The industry is subject to stricter supervision after fraud, and will give birth to new leading companies with medium and large market value in the future. From the perspective of subsidies, the recently promulgated "Regulations on the Management of Carbon Quota of New Energy Vehicles (Draft for Comments)" will: 1) Promote industry subsidies to the direction of marketization and achieve sustainability; 2) Improve the long-term profitability of enterprises with a high proportion of new energy vehicle sales. We believe that companies like the company that account for a high proportion of new energy vehicles and have core technical strength will benefit significantly. In addition, the company's product reserves on electric vehicle will help it achieve performance increase. Currently, 4.5 and 5-meter Qingzhou pure electric vehicle is ready to go, waiting for the promulgation of the promotion catalog. We estimate that logistics vehicles account for 10% of the company's performance this year and will provide better growth in the future.
will still maintain the company's 30 billion market value in the long run.
: In the judgment of the industry maturity period in 5 years, we expect the company to have a profit ceiling of 2 billion yuan in bus business and a logistics vehicle of 300 million yuan. The market value of the mature period is expected to achieve 30 billion yuan, corresponding to 13x PE. But in the short term, based on our concerns about the capital chain, the performance in 2016 was slightly lowered to 640 million yuan (-7.2%) to reflect a cautious view.
Dongfeng Motor: 2016H1 performance is stable, electric traffic vehicles are increasing in volume
Dongfeng Motor 600006
Research institution: Changjiang Securities Analyst: Huang Xili Writing date: 2016-08-31
Report Key points
Event Description
August 29, Dongfeng Motor released its 2016 semi-annual report: The company achieved operating income of 6.886 billion in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decline of 11.73%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 222 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 5.68%; net profit excluding non-network was 209 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.85%; EPS was 0.11 yuan. Among them, Q2 achieved operating income of 3.575 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.87%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 101 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.21%; EPS was 0.05 yuan.
Event Comments
Industry sluggishness dragged down the company's sales, and H1 revenue in 2016 fell by 11.73%. In the first half of the year, the company sold 83,900 cars (-10.77%), a decline narrowed compared with the same period last year. By business, the sales of 36,900 light trucks in the headquarters (-6.99%) were mainly due to the slowdown in economic growth and the company's active cleaning of inventory vehicles; the sales of 15,800 buses and chassis in the headquarters (-2.77%) were mainly due to the impact of new energy light trucks due to policy adjustments; the sales of Zhengzhou Nissan were 31,300 (-18.09%) were mainly due to the decline in demand for pickup trucks and the slow release of new products between Zhengji MPV and SUV. In the second quarter, the company's sales volume was 43,500 vehicles (-14.8%), mainly due to the sharp decline in Zhengji's sales (-43.5%), further dragging down the decline in Q2 revenue (-16.87%).
Zhengzhou Nissan's losses intensified + Cummins' profits declined. The net profit excluding non-operating items in the first half of the year still increased by 1.85%, which was generally stable. 1) In the first half of the year, Zhengzhou's daily sales fell sharply by 18.09%, causing losses to intensify from less than 60 million in the same period last year to more than 160 million this year. 2) Affected by the decline in the truck market and motor market, Dongfeng Cummins sold 69,200 engines in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 11.19%, resulting in a year-on-year decline of 10%. Among them, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.21% year-on-year. The reason for the positive growth rate is that the effective tax rate of income tax in this period fell by 2.6 percentage points year-on-year.
is a leading electric vehicle company. After the policy is implemented, it will accelerate the increase in volume and maintain recommendations. As the undertaker of Dongfeng Group's light commercial vehicle business, the core highlight is that the traditional main business has recovered, and the electric vehicle is expected to increase rapidly after the policy is implemented: 1) The truck industry is showing a recovery trend, and the performance of the light truck business and Cummins engines are expected to improve in the second half of the year; 2) Splitting off Zhengzhou Nissan will effectively improve the company's operating quality; 3) The company's current orders for electric vehicle are full. In the first half of the year, due to the policy, the production of special vehicles is only 2,000 (energy-saving network data). The third quarter is a period of intensive implementation of policies in the new energy vehicle industry. New national subsidy plans and the fourth batch of promotion catalogs are expected to be released one after another. In the fourth quarter, the company's electric vehicle is expected to restart and increase rapidly. It is estimated that the EPS will be 0.23 yuan, 0.29 yuan and 0.35 yuan from 2016 to 2018, and the corresponding PEs will be 36X, 28X, and 23X. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: policy implementation is lower than expected, order delivery does not meet expectations.
