U.S. "small non-agricultural" ADP private sector employment slowed significantly in August, with wages rising 7.6% year-on-year to rekindling inflation concerns. The U.S. property market continued to cool down, with mortgage loan demand falling again last week, down 63% year-on-year. The market is waiting for August non-farm employment data released on Friday, using this to speculate on the extent of the Fed's September rate hike and the prospects of the US recession.
This year's vote committee and Cleveland Fed Chairman Mester said that interest rates should be raised to more than 4% by the beginning of next year and will remain for some time. Rate cuts should not be cut in 2023. She also warned that financial markets will remain turbulent and that economic growth slowdown may exceed expectations. "Even if the economy falls into recession, we must lower inflation."
Driven by a sharp surge in energy costs and rising prices of food, alcohol and tobacco, the euro zone's CPI inflation rate rose by 9.1% year-on-year in August, exceeding expectations, setting a record high for the ninth consecutive time, and the core inflation rate jumped from the previous value of 5.1% to 5.5% is more eye-catching. Goldman Sachs raises its ECB rate hike expectations to 75 basis points next week, and the money market has almost absorbed the pricing of violent rate hikes.
US stock fell to a one-month low for four consecutive times, 8html fell more than 4% in May, and chip stocks 8html fell nearly 10% in May, and popular Chinese outperformed market
Wednesday, August 31, the last trading day in August. US stocks originally opened high collectively, S&P 500 index rose 0.7% at the beginning of the session and once broke through the 4,000 point mark. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by more than 175 points or 0.5%, reaching the 32,000 point mark. Nasdaq once rose more than 1% and briefly broke through 12,000 points.
Unfortunately, the good times did not last long. In the market expectations of hawkish interest rates hikes in September by the European and American central banks and the panic that major economies around the world were in recession, opened 90 minutes, and the US stock market collectively fell. The decline was significantly widening near the end of the trading session and closed near the daily lows.
As of the close, US stocks fell for four days and hit a one-month low again, with an average drop of more than 4% in August. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P both fell in the second month of three months, while the Nasdaq fell in the fourth month of five months:
S&P 500 index closed down 31.16 points, a drop of 0.78%, at the lowest since July 26, with a cumulative decline of 4.2% in August. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 280.44 points, or 0.88%, to its lowest since July 18, with a cumulative decline of 4.1% in August. The Nasdaq closed down 66.93 points, down 0.56%, at the lowest since July 26, with a cumulative decline of 4.6% in August. The Nasdaq 100 index closed down 0.57%, down 5.2% in August. The Russell 2000 small-cap index closed down 0.62%, down 2.2% in August.
The major U.S. stock indexes both fell below the 50-day moving average Key technical level 8 Among the S&P 11 sectors in August, only energy and utilities rose, while technology stock performed the worst.
Most celebrity technology stocks fell, "Meta" Meta rose nearly 4%, Netflix rose more than 1%, but Amazon and Apple fell more than 1%, and Microsoft and Google's parent company Alphabet fell 0.6%, both falling for four consecutive days, hitting a five-week low with Tesla, which fell 0.8%.
chip stocks generally fell. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by more than 1%, the lowest since four consecutive days until July 14, with a cumulative decline of nearly 10% in August. Intel fell by more than 1% and hit another six-year low, while AMD and Nvidia fell by more than 2%, both falling by four consecutive days to mid-July.
Popular Chinese generals have significantly outperformed the US stock market since the beginning of the market. Chinese ETF KWEB rose nearly 4%, CQQQ rose nearly 2%, Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) rose nearly 3% and rose more than 6% in August. The constituent stock Ranshi Medical led the way on Wednesday, Douyu rose more than 10%, and among the four Nasdaq 100 stocks, JD.com rose more than 3%, NetEase rose more than 2%, Baidu rose more than 4%, and Pinduoduo rose more than 7% to its highest in 9 months. Among other stocks, Alibaba rose 1.7%, Bilibili rose nearly 8%, Tencent ADR and iQiyi rose more than 3%, and Ideal Auto fell slightly by "three fools in making cars", but BYD ADR fell nearly 4%, and Yixian E-commerce fell about 12%.
Other key stocks with greater changes include:
PayPal rose nearly 2% to a week's high, Bank of America raised its rating, and the company said that activist investor Elliott Management may promote more reforms to improve profitability.
Social media company Snap confirmed layoffs of 20% and canceled several restructuring plans for money-burning projects, but two advertising executives jumped to Netflix, and their stock price rose nearly 16% and closed in half.
Retail investors' group stocks fell generally, with 3B Home Furnishing's deepest drop of more than 27% to the lowest since August 23. It will lay off employees and close stores to save costs, plan to issue new shares to raise funds, and issue sales decline warnings.
Many companies have released weak full-year performance guidance . Pet products retail e-commerce Chewy fell more than 8% to a two-month low, clothing retailer Express fell more than 21% to its lowest since January last year, PC maker HP fell more than 7% to its lowest in 10 months, and data storage company Seagate Technology fell more than 3% to its lowest in 19 months, both warning customers to cut non-essential spending. But German auto supplier Bosch's European stock rose nearly 3%, and will spend $200 million to expand its factories in the United States to build fuel cells for electric heavy trucks starting from 2026. Gazprom, a Gazprom, made a record profit in the first half of the year, paying interim dividends for the first time, once rising more than 30%, setting the largest intraday gain since 2008 and boosting Russian stock indexes.
European stocks also turned down during the session and closed down about 1%. The Pan-European Stoxx 600 index fell 1.12%, falling a new low for four consecutive days to six and a half weeks since July 15. The oil and gas sector fell nearly 3% to lead the decline. The entire stock index fell more than 5% in August and fell nearly 15% throughout the year. German stocks fell 4.8% in August, French stocks fell 5% in cumulatively, Italian stocks fell nearly 4% in cumulatively, British stocks fell nearly 2% in cumulatively, and Russian RTS index rose more than 11%.
Many analysts believe that as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, stock market volatility will continue in the short term, and September is usually the worst month for US stocks to perform in a year since World War II. Goldman Sachs said that U.S. stocks fluctuated sharply in August, boosted by expectations of inflation peaking and the Fed's dovish turn in the first half of the month, and were subsequently deeply suppressed by hawkish remarks from senior Federal Reserve officials such as Powell to fight inflation.
Two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose above 3.50% hit another fifteen-year high, and European bond yields both hit the largest single-month increase in decades
Euro-US central banks expect hawkish interest rate hikes, causing the yields of government bonds in major European and American countries to rise together.
10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by nearly 8 basis points and rose by 3.19%, setting a record high of two months. The 30-year long-term bond yield also rose by 8 basis points to 3.3%. The two-year yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, rose by 3.5 basis points, rising above 3.50%, hitting another fifteen-year high. Short-term bond yields are still significantly higher than long-term bond yields, highlighting market concerns about the decline.
Financial Blog Zerohedge said that the 5-year/30-year U.S. Treasury yield has turned inverted again, with the 5-year yield closing at its highest since May 2008, with an August increase of the second largest monthly surge since November 2009.
The yields of government bonds in major European countries have all hit the largest single-month increase in decades, mainly due to the natural gas crisis that has exacerbated inflation concerns and pushed up expectations of hawkish interest rates. Some analysts say that European bonds are closely following the development of the energy market:
The 10-year German bond yield on the euro zone benchmark hit a new high of more than two months, with a cumulative increase of more than 72 basis points in August, the largest increase since 1990. The biennial yield corresponding to monetary policy rose to its highest since mid-June, up 92 basis points in August, the highest since 1981.
10-year French bond yield rose to its highest since 2013 and its two-year yield hit its highest since 2011. The yield on 10-year Italian bonds rose by nearly 90 basis points in August, while the yield on French and Dutch bonds rose the largest in a single month in decades. The yields of 2, 5 and 10-year British bonds both hit the largest single-month increase in history, with the 10-year yield rising by 94 basis points in cumulatively and the two-year yield rising by 131 basis points.
Oil prices fell nearly 4% during the session , U.S. oil fell below 90 US dollars, European natural gas and electricity prices fell sharply for three consecutive days, but rose by double digits within the month
worry about the global economic outlook and demand outlook, international oil prices fell for two consecutive days and for three consecutive months. WTI October crude oil futures closed down $2.09, or 2.28%, at $89.55 per barrel, down about 6.90% in August, the worst single-month performance of the year. Brent October crude oil futures closed down $2.82, or 2.84%, at $96.49 per barrel, down 7.19% in August. U.S. Natural Gas rose nearly 20% in August.
US oil WTI fell by $3.34 or 3.6%, falling below the $90 mark and pressing $88. International Brent October futures fell by $3.87 or nearly 4%, daily lows pressing $95, November futures fell by $3.42 or 3.6%, daily lows pressing $94, neither futures could return to the top of the $100 mark.
Last week, U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased by nearly 1.2 million barrels beyond expectations, gasoline inventories decreased by more than 3.3 million barrels, and refined oil inventories only increased slightly. The improvement in demand once pushed U.S. oil back to $90. G7 Finance Ministers will discuss setting a price cap on Russian oil exports on Friday. Before OPEC+ production decision meeting next Monday, the alliance cut its expectations of oversupply this year in half, instead worrying about supply shortages next year, but endorsed Saudi Arabia's proposed production cuts to counter the "disconnection" of international oil prices from fundamentals.
Russia has suspended the delivery of natural gas to Europe through the Nord Stream 1 from today to September 3, but European natural gas has fallen sharply for three consecutive days. The TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures rose 7% and then turned to a decline, falling by more than 13% at one point and hit 230 euros/megawatt-hour. It rose 17.6% in August and rose to a record high of 340 euros last Friday. ICE UK natural gas fell more than 11% in the late trading session, and rose more than 16% in August. Germany, which is also a European benchmark, fell nearly 11% in the next year, rose nearly 59% in August and rose to a new high of 1,050 euros on Monday.
USD is hovering at a 20-year high, the euro stood firm against the USD, the pound fell more than 4% against the USD in May, , the worst in 2016
, a basket of USD index, DXY, which measures against six major currencies, fell for two consecutive days, but hovered at the 20-year high set on Monday, trying to break the 109 mark, rose about 2.6% in August and rose for three consecutive months. The euro stood above parity against the dollar and returned to its weekly high.
UK inflation rate has broken through double digits and is expected to rise again. The pound fell against the US dollar for four consecutive days, reaching a two-and-a-half lowest in two and a half years. The drop in August exceeded 4% as its worst performance since 2016, and the pound fell by more than 2% against the euro in a single month, the worst since April 2021.
USD rose above 139 against the Japanese yen and turned to a decline, still close to the 20-year high since 1998. The onshore RMB closed at 6.8918 against the US dollar, up 183 points from Tuesday's night closing. The offshore RMB once rose above the 6.90 mark against the US dollar, rebounding from a low of more than two years.
Most mainstream cryptocurrencies rose, Bitcoin, the leader with the largest market value, rose by more than 1%, barely reached the $20,000 mark, and remained hovering at a six-week low. Ethereum, the second largest market value, rose by more than 2%, and stood at $1,500 for two consecutive days.
gold futures fell four consecutive days to a new low, 8 cumulatively fell 3% in May and fell for five consecutive months, London copper forced 7800 to hit another four-week low
suppressed by the expectations of European and American hawks' interest rate hikes and rising treasury yields, COMEX December gold futures closed down 0.6% to $1,726.20/ounce, a new month's lowest for four consecutive days, and a cumulative decline of 3% in August, and five consecutive months of decline was the longest cycle since September 2018. Spot gold once fell below $1,710 to its lowest level in the past six-week period, with its deepest drop of more than $14 or 0.8%.
demand outlook is worrying, with London base metals generally falling for two consecutive days. Analysts said that the development of hawkish officials in the European and American central bank has intensified the risk of a "hard landing", which has caused the basic metal to be hit recently:
, the "Dr. Copper", known as the global economic vane, closed down 3.6% yesterday, fell 0.8% on Wednesday and fell down the $7,800 mark, setting a new four-week low since August 4, and has fallen 6% since hitting a two-month high of $8,300 last Friday. Lunar aluminum fell more than 1% to a six-week low, with Lunar zinc, which fell more than 2% yesterday, down 0.6% again, but the European power crisis may support prices for energy-intensive aluminum and zinc production cuts. Lunnier, which fell more than 1% yesterday, rose slightly, while Lunnier, which fell nearly $1,100 yesterday, may fall 4.4% yesterday, fell 3.6% again, losing to $23,000, also hitting a monthly low.
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