8 ended with US stocks falling by more than 4%, and September, which made investors frightened. Sure enough, Nasdaq and Russell small-cap stocks fell by more than 2% at the beginning of the first trading day in September. Some analysts also said that given that the rest of the year has been falling so far, the US stock market has not had a good time.
9html May is the worst performance of the year for US stocks. The S&P 500 index fell by an average of 0.56%
CFRA Chief Investment Strategy Sam Stovall studied the "calendar effect" and found that in the 77 years since the end of World War II in 1945, February and September were the only two months when the S&P 500 index recorded an average loss, and the decline in September was particularly serious. Among them, the market for S&P fell by an average of 0.56% in September, and fell by an average of 0.19% in February. Jeff Hirsch, editor-in-chief of
Stock Trader's Almanac, also said last week that starting from 1950, September has been the worst month for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the Russell 1000 Index in one year, and it is also the worst month for the Nasdaq since 1971 and the worst month for the year in the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index since 1979. When
enters 9html May, if US stocks fall cumulatively this year, historical experience says that the rest of the year is not as good as
Yahoo Finance said that historical experience also shows that if US stocks show a cumulative decline from the middle of the year to August, it often indicates that there will be more weakness and fluctuations at the end of the year.
For example, from 1921 to 2021, there were 36 cases where the Dow Jones Industrial Average still fell during the year when it entered September of the year. The average return rate in the first eight months of the period was -7.64%, so the average return rate for the remaining time in the year was -1.7%. If you select the 13 years in which the return rate is negative 8% or even lower as of the end of August, the Dow Jones Industrial Average will return for the last four months of the year to -5.1%.
Bespoke Investment Group's report yesterday also confirmed the existence of this seasonal trend, that is, since 1928, during the years when the S&P 500 cumulative declines from January to August, September and 1.2% in the month's average decline in the month. If the stock market rises during the year as September enters the year, the average increase of 3.3% will be increased by 3.3% for the rest of the year.
This year happened to be such an "unfortunate" year : As of the end of August, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen by 13.3% so far this year, the S&P 500 had fallen by 17%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen by 24.5%. What’s even more terrifying is that some spectacular stock market crashes in history often occur in October, such as the US stock market crash in 1929 and the "Black Monday" in 1987. Meanwhile, the stock market crash in 1929, 1987 and 2008 all began in September, and reached its tragic climax in October, and in September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered the global financial crisis.
Institutional investors are preparing to welcome the "Dark 9html May". This year, the Federal Reserve violent expectation of hike rate
The market has different explanations on why September has always been the worst performance of the year. Several main reasons are: investors ended their summer vacation and decided to adjust their hitml1 holdings to lock in profits or losses; the fiscal year of mutual fund ended on October 31 in accordance with the law, and they will sell loss positions before the end of the year for tax reasons and other reasons; families need money to pay tuition fees or purchase fall student return supplies; seller analysts are often too optimistic at the beginning of the year, and the forecast will be lowered after the end of the second quarter financial report period at the end of August, and various reasons will accelerate the stock market selling from September.
At present, Wall Street 's consensus on the market in September this year is: due to the expectation that the Fed will keep interest rates high for a longer period of time, the stock market will continue to fall and fall into range fluctuations before the Fed announced the decision to raise interest rates on September 21, and there may be significant turbulence afterwards.
The situation of US stocks this year is extremely dangerous, facing the high inflation fever, the European and American central banks vowed to raise interest rates, the economy was stalled and full of contradictions, and frequent geopolitical conflicts, which seems to increase the seasonal risk of US stocks falling in high volatility in September.
Many investors seem to be preparing to face such a bleak prospect.Bank of America said its clients became net sellers of U.S. stocks for the second consecutive week last week, tracking the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ open put contracts soared to the highest level since the 2000s internet bubble bursting, and has since been hovering not far from this historical high.
As Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group Holdings, said, amid complex signals such as the Federal Reserve, inflation and potential recession, U.S. stocks entered September in an unstable state. Given that the market showed "significant consistency" in September:
You don't want to invest blindly based on seasonality, but you shouldn't ignore it, September is usually bad, especially for tech stock . "
This year coincides with the US midterm election year, adding complexity to predict the May trend of US stocks 9html, but the outlook seems to be bad
However, the performance of US stocks in September and the rest of the year is controversial whether it can conform to the historical laws of decline.
Ryan mentioned above Detrick said that the United States often consolidates sideways in the fall of the midterm election year and rebounds before the end of the year. The stock market in the fourth quarter of the midterm election year in history was very strong. The current financial report of technology stocks is generally stable, which may also be conducive to the good "Santa rebound" "after everything is settled."
But this year's only concern seems to be inflation data and the Fed's rate hike response, not the midterm election, which means that the trend from September to the end of the year is still unknown. Moreover, the performance of the midterm election year often ends with a decline, but the decline is slightly improved. This shows that no matter what, the outlook for US stocks in May this year seems to be particularly bleak.
For example, according to Stock Trader's Almanac statistics show that since 1950, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 11 times in September of 17 midterm election years. The average decline of the S&P 500 in September narrowed slightly from -0.5% to -0.4%, while the average decline of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 index in September has slightly increased to -1%, -0.8%, -1.1% and -0.6%, respectively.
Wall Street pays attention to 9html May non-agricultural and CPI inflation released in May, many people are hoping for "Santa rebound"
In addition to hoping for "Santa rebound" at the end of the year, Bernstein Private Alex Chaloff, co-investment strategy director at Wealth Management, and Andrew Graham, founder and managing partner at Jackson Square Capital, both believe that U.S. stocks may go against the trend in the fall, “there are many potential catalysts for the fall rebound in September and October. "
Their reason is that, on the one hand, most of the investors' de-risk de-evaluation was completed earlier this year; at the same time, some stocks that suffered heavy losses at the beginning of the year, valuation of stocks has become attractive again. Many analysts lowered their performance expectations for stocks and completed the expectations of further interest rate hikes, which may make the overall performance of US stocks in September this year better than usual.
Some analysts said that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates is no longer news for "smart money". They may pay more attention to other factors such as terminal interest rates, and it is generally expected that the Fed will stop tightening its policies in December this year. If so, institutional investors will focus on the layout next year. Although it will push up market volatility in the next few quarters, it will undoubtedly lay the foundation for the rebound.
After all, most of the past has been In the history of the century, U.S. stocks have not fallen every September. According to CFRA statistics, since World War II, the S&P 500 has fallen by 56% in September, and it has risen by 0.9% in October, and is also optimistic in November and December. In the past three years before the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the U.S. stock market has risen every time.
The next focus is on several heavy economic data and the technology of the expiration date of options. Skill incident. Before the Federal Reserve announced its decision to raise interest rates on September 21, the US non-farm employment report in August will be released this Friday, and the August CPI consumer inflation data will be released on September 13. At the same time, Friday, September 19 is the "three witch days" for the expiration of monthly and quarterly options in the US stock market. The performance of the US stock market has been generally bullish since 1990.
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