Tianhong Fund Hu Chao
Latest views:
Domestic troubles + foreign troubles, Vietnam is having a hard time
This week is a relatively bleak week for the Vietnamese market.
Since the Federal Reserve released inflation data that exceeded expectations last Friday, the world has entered risk-off mode. The interest rate hike of by 575 basis points in June basically destroyed the trust built between the Federal Reserve and the market over the past three months. This week, except for A shares and Hong Kong shares , most stock markets have recorded relatively large retracements.
From the interest rate meeting statement, we can only see the Fed's determination to control inflation, but the Fed itself does not seem to have enough confidence to achieve this in the short term. Federal Reserve officials also lowered their U.S. economic growth forecasts, and the market re-examined the possibility of the U.S. economy entering a recession.
As far as Vietnam is concerned, the CPI in May was +2.86% year-on-year and +0.83% month-on-month, which is still at a low level globally. The average inflation in the first five months was about 2.25%, which was also a relatively low level. Although many central banks around the world have followed the Federal Reserve in raising interest rates, we believe that the current overall inflation level in Vietnam is still within control, and the Central Bank of Vietnam has no sufficient reason to follow suit in raising interest rates.
As far as the Vietnamese market is concerned, banks/real estate/brokerages all recorded large declines, and only the crude oil/fertilizer/ports and other sectors in the market recorded relative gains. The latter is the current popular trading model in the world. What can be foreseen is a potential economic recession and real commodity price increases can be seen. In addition to the rapid rise in oil prices caused by geopolitical conflicts, the recovery of China's economic activities has further promoted the rise in potential demand for crude oil. As for the market-weighted sectors such as banks and real estate, affected by the investigation of illegal transactions in the securities market, the suspension of real estate bond issuance, and the tightening of credit flows to the real estate sector, they have experienced both prosperity and loss. We have noticed that the market's concerns about real estate and real estate credit have been excessive. In the entire Vietnamese banking system, credit issued through bonds accounts for about 4% of the total credit, of which about 70% is invested in real estate companies; and all real estate-related loans + bonds account for about 8% of the overall bank credit. . We believe that systemic risks are unlikely. We noticed that real estate companies restarted bond issuance and raised funds in May, which may mean that the regulatory attitude towards real estate bond financing has begun to relax; senior central bank officials stated in their speeches that they will support the financing of the real estate industry with real needs, etc. .
Due to the above factors, market funds are seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages, resulting in stocks and the industry's market conditions are more extreme.
As far as market participants are concerned, the sentiment of domestic investors is still cautious. The rapid market retracement in the early stage caused a large number of investors to record large losses and leave the market. Although the number of new trading accounts opened in May reached a record high of 470,000, it was not reflected in the trading volume. We expect that these newly opened trading accounts did not enter the market quickly. In terms of foreign investment, despite the Federal Reserve's consecutive sharp interest rate hikes in May/June and the strengthening of the US dollar, the Vietnamese market, which fell rapidly and sharply, still attracted net inflows of foreign capital. Since April, foreign investors have maintained net purchases for three consecutive months, and their proportion of market transactions is also increasing.
The global market is very difficult this year. A series of uncertain factors have caused the trend of the Vietnamese stock market to not completely follow the fundamentals. These uncertainties are still there, such as the attitude of regulators towards the real estate sector, the monetary policies of global central banks, geopolitical conflicts, etc. We are still confident in this market. What we can expect in the short term is the issuance of new credit lines by the central bank. In the medium and long term, we still believe that the dividends of economic growth will be reflected in the capital market.
Cinda Australia and Asia Fund is Xingtao
Latest views:
What do you think of the market in the second half of the year?
Before you know it, almost half of 2022 has passed. This week I want to talk to you about the market in the second half of the year. Since the beginning of this year, the market has experienced a wave of substantial adjustments before it has stabilized to a certain extent in the near future. Some of the economic stimulus policies introduced intensively some time ago are gradually showing their effects, and the higher-than-expected growth rate of social financing in May is also strengthening the market's confidence.
From a policy perspective, considering the relatively large impact of the epidemic on the economy in the first half of the year, coupled with the slowdown in overseas economic growth, if we hope to achieve the economic growth target set this year, it is expected that there may be more favorable policies in the future promulgated. Judging from the above analysis, this year's market has obvious macro-driven characteristics, and we can look forward more based on fundamentals. In the process of gradual implementation of stimulus policies, the greater certainty often comes from the investment side, which is also the most obvious starting point for economic boost. Therefore, from a sector perspective, we believe that it has both growth potential and certainty. The fields of new infrastructure, especially energy infrastructure, green electricity, digital infrastructure and other fields deserve special attention. In addition, real estate, traditional infrastructure, building materials and other fields can also be paid attention to.
In addition, in the process of steady growth and continuous efforts, domestic liquidity is expected to remain abundant and the economy will continue to recover. While current policies continue to exert force, the impact of the epidemic is gradually weakening, and the resumption of work and production is steadily advancing. After the market experienced the release of risks in the first half of the year, structural opportunities have gradually increased. With the overall market environment improving marginally, we continue to be optimistic about the investment value of A shares.
Cinda Australia and Asia Fund Zeng Guofu
Latest views:
Focus on the core technology of growth stocks, localization logic
Since the low of April 27, the A-share market has entered a wave of rebound with a relatively obvious valuation recovery. In this wave of rebound, the most outstanding performance is the new energy board. The growth stock sector represented by , science and technology innovation sector, etc., my focus of investment is the whole market, with a broad-based style. At the same time, I also focus on the growth stock sector. Today, I also want to talk to you about the growth sector. The driving logic behind the localization of core technologies of high-quality stocks.
Throughout last year, with the rise of the new energy industry, especially the continuous improvement of our domestic new energy industry chain, and the continuous increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles , the new energy sector performed strongly, which also promoted the GEM Index The rebound of in the growth sector includes, in addition to new energy, industries such as semiconductors and high-end manufacturing. These industries all bear the important task of localizing core technologies. Therefore, the future market performance of growth stocks will be more related to the localization process of core high-tech. With the rise of China's technology industry, high-quality companies with innovative capabilities will enter a long-term positive situation.
Correspondingly, the main driving force for subsequent growth sectors is also the logic of localization of core technologies, rather than the restoration of oversold valuation. As an investor, in the era of knowledge economy, most of the future gains will come from today's R&D investment. We can pay more attention to the progress of localization of core technologies and the corresponding potential market space, which is the core of grasping the investment logic of growth stocks. In terms of sectors, you can focus on equipment manufacturers that master core technologies in the field of semiconductor equipment, chips, innovative drugs, and high-end manufacturing, as well as related companies that purchase these equipment for efficient industrial production.
Cinda Australia and Asia Fund Li Shuyan
Latest views:
Oil prices continue to rise, what impact will it have on the chemical industry?
This week, domestic refined oil products ushered in the 10th price adjustment this year. After this round of adjustment is realized, the price of No. 95 gasoline in most areas of the country will exceed or approach 10 yuan/liter. Internationally, as of June 14, WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil stood at US$122 and US$123 respectively, an increase of nearly 1%. The rise in oil prices has had a direct impact on our daily travel. In fact, it has also had a significant impact on the chemical industry.
As the epidemic gradually eases, the resumption of work and production continues to advance, and the operating rate of refineries increases, which has also led to the recovery of demand for basic chemical raw materials; the recent decline in sea freight has eased the supply chain transportation problem, and it is expected that chemical product exports There will also be stronger performance. Affected by this, the prices of many chemical products such as methyl ethyl ketone, toluene , and pure benzene increased. The basic chemical index rose by 7.28% in the first half of June.
Basic chemicals are a relatively typical cyclical industry, and Q3 is also the traditional peak season for the industry. With the further recovery of domestic and foreign demand, it is expected that the industry's profitability will still have room for growth. We will also combine the current cyclical environment and strive to explore better investment opportunities for our investors.
Cinda Australia Asia Fund Li Bo
Latest opinions:
Will new energy vehicles be the next "long slope and thick snow" track?
In recent years, as the product of new energy vehicles has entered the homes of ordinary people, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has also gradually increased. In the capital market, the market's expectations for the new energy vehicle sector are also very high, so that last year the entire sector experienced a large increase, and the valuation given to the industry was also very high. At that time, the fundamentals of the entire industry required various aspects Only by continuously exceeding expectations can we maintain higher valuations. Therefore, the entire sector has had internal motivation to reduce valuations since the end of last year. This year, the new energy vehicle sector has indeed experienced a significant correction.
It is precisely through this year's major correction in the sector and the high performance growth of outstanding companies in the new energy vehicle industry chain. Under the dual influence, the current valuation of the new energy vehicle sector has once again returned to a lower digit, with a higher cost performance. At the same time, global carbon reduction has become a consensus, and the rapid development of the new energy industry is also imperative. In the long term, vigorously developing renewable energy, reducing the proportion of fossil energy, and restructuring the energy pattern are of great significance in terms of environmental protection and energy security. Whether it is the future growth space and growth rate of new energy vehicles, wind power, or other clean energy, I personally feel that the prospects are still very broad. It is a "long slope and thick snow" track that deserves everyone's attention.
In the field of new energy vehicles, my country's new energy vehicles have established a large competitive advantage in the world. A number of rapidly rising new car-making forces are increasingly supported by consumers. Compared with Europe and the United States and other regions, my country is expected to grow faster Realizing corner overtaking in the automotive field has broken the pattern of traditional energy vehicles. In the lithium battery sector, my country has also given birth to a number of the world's first-tier companies, which continue to receive large-scale orders from global customers. In the material sector, the current leading companies in this sector are basically Chinese companies, and have established an absolute competitive advantage in this aspect. It can be said that in the new energy vehicle industry chain, my country's outstanding enterprises have occupied good competitive advantages in the upstream, middle and downstream sectors, and the overall competitive landscape is relatively favorable.
From a policy perspective, we have also seen the country’s current firm support for new energy vehicles and its determination to achieve the goal of “carbon neutrality peaking”. We remain optimistic about the development trend of the new energy vehicle industry chain and are confident in its future performance that will continue to exceed expectations. I personally understand that this is a "long slope and thick snow" track that deserves our attention.
Cinda Australia and Asia Fund Yang Ke
Latest views:
With emphasis on the cost performance of individual stocks, how do we choose targets?
This year, the pharmaceutical sector is still in a "cognitive bias" situation. The pharmaceutical sector has experienced a long period of correction. The market has a certain pessimism about it, but there are also many determined users who continue to hold it in the form of fixed investments. Then the entire market rebounded after hitting bottom in April, and the pharmaceutical sector also performed well. Taking into account the impact of the epidemic on the entire industry and the comparative advantages of performance certainty brought by pharmaceutical rigidity in the next 2-3 quarters, the comparative advantages of the pharmaceutical sector are expected to gradually be reflected as the interim report period gradually enters. Here, let me tell you how I choose pharmaceutical targets in this context:
First, the business model. From the perspective of business model, listed companies related to the pharmaceutical sector can be divided into three categories: companies with high profit margins and companies with high turnover companies and highly leveraged companies. Highly leveraged companies need continuous financing to expand their scale, and I may choose to avoid this category;
The second is the competitive landscape of enterprises. According to Porter's five forces model analysis, Yang Ke will focus on the concentration of the upstream and downstream links in the industry chain where the enterprise is located. The concentration of the company's own industry chain links, as well as factors such as whether there are substitutes and new entrants;
The third is the industry space, judging whether the future development of the company is sustainable;
The fourth is the corporate management, focusing on the ability and credibility of the corporate management, stocks with serious management flaws will be blacklisted;
The fifth is Financial statements focus on eliminating companies with financial flaws by focusing on balance sheets and cash flow statements.
The pharmaceutical sector has, after all, experienced a nerve-wracking correction. The overall valuation levels of many outstanding companies are already at historically low levels. We should now pay more attention to the price-performance ratio of individual stocks after valuations have been digested.
Cinda Australia and Asia Fund Zou Yun
Latest views:
618 big promotion has started, optional consumer demand has improved marginally
Recently, the 618 big promotion activities of major e-commerce platforms have started.
This year has been affected by repeated epidemics. Since March, prevention and control policies have been upgraded in many places across the country, supply-side production has been restricted, and logistics chains have been unsmooth. Various reasons have had a greater impact on online consumption and optional consumption. . Therefore, this year’s 618 promotion is particularly critical to the performance of related companies in the second quarter. It is expected to stimulate a new round of consumption boom and lead the consumer industry to start a recovery market.
In the latest social zero data released in May, we can clearly see that the recovery of online consumption is relatively better. Online retail sales of physical goods in May were 0.98 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, which was better than the recovery of offline consumption in the same period. Among them, the growth rate of optional consumer goods such as clothing, cosmetics, and home appliances has also rebounded relative to April. During the 618 period, the demand for optional consumption is expected to show significant marginal improvement.
Historically, in the process of economic recovery, the consumer industry plays an important engine role in the national economy. As an important means to speed up the domestic cycle and promote stable economic development, it is expected that the demand in the consumer industry will be released and rebound, and new investment highlights will be born.
CITIC Prudential Fund Sun Haozhong
Latest views:
Why The Fed raises interest rates has little impact on A-shares
In terms of new energy this week, on June 16, National Energy Administration released national power industry statistics from January to May. The data shows that the number of installed power generation capacity nationwide has shown a year-on-year growth trend. From late April to the present , photovoltaic also maintains a volatile upward trend, and wind power photovoltaics is undoubtedly an area with strong certainty in the new energy industry in the future.
Another thing that has attracted a lot of attention is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike this month. The 75bp interest rate hike will undoubtedly further expand the intensity. However, based on the response to various previous economic data, it is basically in line with market predictions. There is a high probability that the pace of interest rate hikes will not stop, and the external market is likely to face relatively large fluctuations. As for the impact on A-shares, there may be a short-term emotional impact, but it is still expected to emerge from the independent market again. The market performance in the past two days has also verified that the impact of A-shares on overseas risk events has gradually been blunted. First, thanks to the multi-party protection of domestic policies, and the initial market consensus on economic recovery after the epidemic has been effectively controlled, northbound funds have continued to flow in, and bullish sentiment has resurfaced. The second is the support of monetary liquidity and financing needs that have been maintained in a loose state.
Sun Sheng of CCB Fund
Latest views:
Sun Sheng: Fixed investment draws an arc, I have completed this week’s fixed investment!
arc plan train, set off!
Hello everyone, I am Sun Sheng of CCBIT Fund, and I am very happy to implement the "Arc Plan" with all partners: Yesterday was Thursday, and I have fulfilled my promise and decided to invest in my Jianxin Made in China 2025 (001825 ) 2,000 yuan. I hope everyone will follow me, exchange comments, and participate in the "Arc Project" together. In the next few months, I will make a fixed investment of 2,000 yuan every Thursday, and review the situation of last week's fixed investment with all partners in the live broadcast on the next Monday. As the saying goes, "the market is bottoming out and the industry is in a roundabout way." arc". During this difficult time, I will accompany you through it. ARC Bottom ,
Regarding the market outlook, we still maintain an attitude of stable growth in the short term and growth in the medium term. At present, excessive pessimism may not be advisable. It may be a good strategy to invest in industries where the market logic is smooth, the prosperity is high, and the market style rotation is in line. We are currently in a bottom market in the bottom area of historical valuations. We cannot predict the bottoming out of the market, but we can make long-term investments and average investment costs through fixed investment. Therefore, I chose to invest in my Made in China 2025 products at the current time. I believe that as the impact of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes weakens, U.S. bond yields stabilize, and domestic stabilizing growth policies are gradually implemented, domestic social financial data will slowly improve. , corporate fundamentals also have strong support.
arc plan, welcome to join! Stay tuned for our live broadcast every Thursday and our live review every Monday! Draw an arc with a fixed projection, and it is fixed with one word, and it is difficult to catch up!
The performance of Sun Sheng's managed funds is as follows. Similar funds are classified as stock funds . The data comes from the fund's regular reports, the fund manager, and has been reviewed by the fund custodian as of 2022.5.27.
Jianxin Made in China 2025 Class A was established on March 8, 2017, and Class C was established on November 26, 2021. Since its establishment, it has been managed by Sun Sheng alone. The performance comparison benchmark is CSI 300 Index return rate * 80% + CSI Composite Bond Index return rate * 20%. The net value growth rates of Class A from 2018 to 2021 were -25.50%, 47.66%, 85.52%, and 27.83%; the benchmark returns for performance comparison during the same period were -19.28%, 29.52%, 22.46%, and -2.94%. Since the establishment of Class C, the net value growth rate has been -13.05%, and the benchmark return rate for the same period has been -14.31%.
Jianxin High-end Equipment was established on April 27, 2021. Since its establishment, it has been jointly managed by Sun Sheng and Huang Ziling. The performance comparison benchmark is CSI High-end Equipment Manufacturing Index return rate * 75% + CSI All Bond Index return rate * 15% + CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Composite Index return rate * 10%. Since the establishment of Class A and Class C, the net value growth rates have been 5.33% and 4.88% respectively, and the benchmark return rate for performance comparison during the same period was -7.64%.
CCB Fund Shao Zhuo
Latest views:
Shao Zhuo: Fixed investment draws an arc, I have completed this week’s fixed investment!
arc plan train, set off!
Hello everyone, I am Shao Zhuo from CCBIT Fund. I am very happy to launch the "Arc Plan" with you: Yesterday was Thursday. I have fulfilled my promise and invested 2,000 yuan in my CCBInnovation China Mixed (000308). I hope everyone Follow me and exchange comments to participate in the "Arc Project" together. In the next few months, I will make a fixed investment of 2,000 yuan every Thursday, and review the last week's fixed investment with all partners during the live broadcast every Monday. As the saying goes, "fixed investment smooths the market bottom, and spring planting and autumn harvest draw an arc." During these difficult days, I will accompany you through the arc bottom.
Since the beginning of the year, the market has fallen sharply. Looking forward to the market outlook, although the short-term market is still under pressure from the progress of epidemic prevention and control and the drag on the real estate industry, from a longer-term perspective, the stock market already has a relatively high valuation performance-price ratio and is at the bottom of the historical valuation area. We It is impossible to predict that the market will bottom out and rebound, but you can make long-term investments through fixed investment and average investment costs. "Sow a grain of millet in spring and harvest ten thousand grains in autumn." Use a good mentality and technology to welcome the market's recovery and improvement stage.
arc plan, welcome to join! Stay tuned for our live broadcast every Thursday and our live review every Monday! Draw an arc with a fixed projection, and it is fixed with one word, and it is difficult to catch up!
The performance of similar fund products managed by Shao Zhuo is as follows. The similar funds are hybrid funds. The data comes from the fund's regular reports and fund managers, and has been reviewed by the custodian as of May 27, 2022.
CCB Innovation China was established on September 24, 2013. It has been independently managed by Qiao Linjian from its establishment to May 21, 2015, and by Shao Zhuo from May 22, 2015 to the present. The benchmark for performance comparison is the return rate of the CSI 300 Index * 75% + the return rate of the China Bond Index * 25%. From 2017 to 2021, the net value growth rate of funds and were 13.60%, -20.98%, 49.44%, 64.07%, 38.55%, and -18.97%; the performance comparison benchmark returns during the same period were 14.77%, -18.10%, 26.82%, 20.35%, -3.08%.
Jianxin Technology Innovation Mix was established on February 17, 2020. From its establishment to 2020.4.13, it was jointly managed by Yao Jin and Huang Feiyu. From 2020.4.14 to 2021.3.3, it was jointly managed by Yao Jin, Huang Feiyu, and Shao Zhuo. It has been managed by Shao Zhuo alone since March 4, 2021. The performance comparison benchmark is China's Strategic Emerging Industries Component Index return rate * 50% + CSI Composite Bond Index return rate * 30% + Hang Seng Index return rate (using the valuation exchange rate conversion) * 20%. The net value growth rates of Class A and Class C funds in 2021 are 29.59% and 28.94% respectively, and the benchmark return rate for performance comparison during the same period is 0.16%.
CCB Innovation Driven Hybrid was established on August 10, 2021. It has been managed by Shao Zhuo alone since its establishment. The performance comparison benchmark is China Strategic Emerging Industries Component Index return rate * 55% + ChinaBond Comprehensive Full Price (Total Value) Index return rate * 25% + Hang Seng Index return rate * 20%. Since its establishment, the net value growth rate has been -18.89%, and the benchmark return rate for the same period has been -22.28%.
CCB Excellent Growth One-year Holding Period Mixed was established on March 17, 2022. Since its establishment, it has been managed by Shao Zhuo alone. The performance comparison benchmark is China Strategic Emerging Industry Component Index yield * 55% + ChinaBond Comprehensive Full Price ( Total value) index return rate * 25% + Hang Seng Index return rate * 20%. Since it was established less than half a year ago, its performance will not be disclosed.
Wells Fargo Fund Zhang Shengxian
Latest views:
[Sages Talk about Military Industry] The military industry has become more volatile, can it continue to attack?
Hello everyone, I am Zhang Shengxian, an index fund manager. I will share with you some of my views on various industries and investment methodologies. You are also welcome to pay attention to the related Wells Fargo index fund. We look forward to more friends joining us, leaving lots of messages in the comment area, and communicating and learning from each other.
Yesterday and the day before yesterday we talked about the market for two consecutive days. Today we talk about the military industry sector. Friends often ask me to talk about the military industry in the discussion forum. In fact, I have said before that the military industry is also the vanguard of the growth sector. If the growth style continues, the military industry will naturally not be absent.
Previously, due to the impact of two companies under the group announcing plans for major asset restructuring, many investors had high expectations for the sector. However, after resumed trading in , the sector did not perform beyond expectations. Instead, it still fluctuated at its current position. So, can the subsequent sector make further gains? Let’s still go back to the fundamentals.
Recently, relevant departments of the military industry group have continued to increase their holdings, and matters related to asset restructuring are still proceeding steadily. Although there is not much performance in the short term, I think this is mainly related to the overall macroeconomic fundamentals. On the one hand, the short-term rebound height of the stock prices of related companies has been relatively high, and the entire sector has also performed strongly under the recovery logic of growth. On the other hand, the recovery of the entire macro economy is still slow, and the growth sector is not just the military industry, including new energy vehicles and other wind vanes, which are also being suppressed to a certain extent in the short term. The logic of
's further upward trend in the future still depends on changes in fundamentals. We believe that after the shareholding increase and restructuring incident, national reforms and equity incentives may continue to be expected, and the semi-annual report results are gradually approaching, and the short-term military industry sector still has the possibility of further upside.
In the medium and long term, the supply and demand of in military industry enterprises are currently booming. The performance brought by orders in the next three years is expected to increase rapidly and steadily, and the performance in 2021 will not meet expectations or provide strong certainty and flexibility for the performance in the next two years. Future focus Model procurement is also expected to continue to exceed expectations.
Therefore, overall, I am still optimistic about the medium and long-term investment logic of the military industry. Although the current industry valuation has recovered to a certain extent, it is still at a relatively low historical level. The current dynamic valuation of the Shenwan Military Industry Index is about 55 times, which is lower than the 80 times of the industry center since 2014 or 65 times since 2017. (Data from wind)
returns to the investment side. There may still be some volatility in the short-term sector, but investors who are already on board do not need to worry too much and can consider waiting patiently. If there are adjustments, you can still consider adopting the method of gradually entering at the right time to deal with it.
For fixed investment, there is no need to care about market fluctuations. You may want to consider setting a profit-taking target for your fixed investment. After reaching it, you can consider taking profit appropriately.
