The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has reached its 188th day, and there is less and less movement on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield. On Monday, Russian military and diplomatic sources revealed that the remnants of the Ukrainian Air Force have been basically wiped out. Ukraine It is now difficult to execute meters. 29, Su-27 and Su-25 missions. The credibility of this news from Russia is very high. Recently, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has requested assistance from the West for F22 and F16 fighter jets . With wishful thinking, Ukraine really thinks that the United States will provide fifth-generation stealth fighter jets to Ukraine?
Judging from the current situation, it is not only difficult for Ukraine to obtain the supplement of fighter , but also faces increasingly tightened support policies of EU . The EU is not going well right now. The EU economy is facing recession, and some countries within the EU themselves need coordinated assistance. If the EU spends huge sums of money to help Ukraine, the problems within the EU will become more and more prominent. Just imagine, the EU is willing to do this for Are you tearing yourself apart by aiding Ukraine?
However, Ukraine does not care about the internal problems of Europe and the United States at all. You started the war, so you must support me unconditionally. This is Ukraine's idea. If nothing else happens, Ukraine's future will most likely end with Europe and the United States abandoning it. Because Europe and the United States have now discovered a problem. They were originally going to consume Russia, but now they are also consuming themselves, and the cost is huge, exceeding expectations.
At the same time, there are constant frictions in some popular areas in the world, which are likely to overtake the protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict.
▲ Greece The S-300 air defense missile system deployed by the Greek army on the island of Crete
Let’s first look at Mediterranean Old Enemies Turkey and Greece. On Sunday, anonymous sources from the Turkish Ministry of Defense broke the news that a few days ago, the Turkish Air Force's F-16 fighter jets were locked by the Greek Air Force's S-300 air defense missile system radar while performing missions in the Aegean Sea and the eastern Mediterranean. However, Turkey The Air Force F-16 fighter jet finally completed its planned flight mission and returned to the base safely.
According to some European media reports, the Greek Air Force S-300 anti-aircraft missile system once aimed at the Turkish Air Force F-16 to launch an anti-aircraft missile. However, this statement has not been confirmed by sources in the Turkish Ministry of Defense.
▲ On August 23, Turkish Navy anti-submarine aircraft patrolled the airspace where the incident occurred.
According to historical data from the flight flight data website, on August 23, the Turkish Navy and Air Force dispatched multiple military aircraft to perform flight missions in the Aegean Sea and the eastern Mediterranean. One of them was an ATR. -72 Anti-submarine aircraft flew close to the Greek island of Kassos. It can be inferred that there was indeed a confrontation between the Greek Air Force and Turkish military aircraft that day. It is more likely that the Turkish military aircraft was too close to Greek territorial waters and triggered the Greek Air Force S-300. The radar illumination warning of the air defense missile system is not uncommon in the sea and air frictions between countries.
Turkey and Greece are both members of NATO . The navies and air forces of the two countries often break out in sea and air frictions in the eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean Sea. However, as NATO has not yet disintegrated, it is extremely likely that such sea and air frictions will escalate into a full-scale war. Nearly a week after the incident, the Turkish Defense Ministry The fact that this news was just revealed can also prove this point. If it really comes to the point where Greek S-300s launch missiles to chase Turkish F-16s, Turkey will probably kill them back on the spot and put Crete on Those two sets of S-300 were sold out.
▲Street scene in Tripoli on August 28.
Türkiye and Greece in the eastern Mediterranean are gearing up, and Libya on the Mediterranean coast is not peaceful either. A serious conflict broke out in Tripoli, the capital of Libya, last Saturday. The two sides in the exchange of fire were the armed forces supporting the Government of National Accord and the armed forces supporting the National Congress. Both sides used armored vehicles in the conflict. As of August 29, the conflict had killed 32 people and injured more than 150 people. The last time a conflict of this scale broke out in Tripoli dates back to the second Libyan Civil War.
The main reason for this round of internal conflict in Libya is the power struggle between the transitional government of national unity and the National Congress. The two factions do not support each other's political ideas. The main reason is that neither faction is willing to hand over the power in their hands. As the Libyan election approaches, armed conflict between the two sides seems inevitable.
▲Situation map during the second Libyan civil war in 2019. Red is the LNA-controlled area and light green is the GNA-controlled area
In 2011, Gaddafi was captured After the overthrow, Libya experienced two civil wars, the second of which ended in peace talks in October 2020 with a permanent ceasefire agreement between the United Nations and the Western-backed GNA and the LNA led by General Haftar. After the ceasefire agreement was signed, the United Nations-backed Government of National Accord established its headquarters in the northwest region controlled by the GNA, while the National Congress set up camp in the eastern region of Libya controlled by the LNA.
Since May this year, Bashagha, the new Prime Minister of the National Congress, has tried several times to take over Tripoli, the capital where the Government of National Unity is located, but has been unsuccessful. The conflict on August 27 should be regarded as another attempt to take over power.
The main reason why the new Prime Minister of the National Congress, Bashagha, is eager to take over Tripoli is that the Prime Minister of the United Nations-supported Government of National Unity, Dbeibah, has repeatedly stated that he will hand over power to a "democratically elected government." According to the plan of the National Accord Government led by Dbeibah, Libyan presidential elections will be held at the end of this year.
Obviously, if the power transfer plan of the Libyan Government of National Accord is followed, Basaga will obviously not be able to become the new president of Libya. Therefore, the latter will undoubtedly continue to cause trouble before this year's presidential election and even during the presidential election. In other words, before the Libyan presidential election, the risk of a new round of Libyan civil war is increasing sharply.
Let us turn our attention back to Ukraine. There were no major developments on the Ukrainian battlefield in the past 24 hours that deserved special attention. However, a reminder from the Ukrainian energy department caused a lot of concern. On August 29, Ukraine’s state-owned energy company began to sell badly in advance. The person in charge of the company said that due to energy shortages, Ukraine’s heating time will be significantly shortened this winter, and the heating temperature will be 4°C lower than in previous years, that is, the heating temperature this winter will be between 17-18 between ℃. Taking this situation into account, the Ukrainian state-owned energy company advises Ukrainians to prepare some warm thick clothes and blankets in advance to keep out the cold.
Due to the dual impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and energy tensions in Europe this year, it is certain that Ukraine will experience natural gas and electricity shortages this winter. Ukraine’s previous suspension of coal and natural gas exports is almost a drop in the bucket for a smooth winter. According to Ukraine, at least the West A transfusion of 10 billion US dollars is needed to help Ukraine purchase natural gas to ensure that Ukrainians will have a warm winter. Now it seems that some Ukrainians are bound to shiver in this cold winter.
