Uncle Mu’s international commentary analyzes the topic in India.
html July 11th is the World Population Day established by the United Nations .On the occasion of this day, the United Nations Economic and Social Council released a report called "World Population Prospects 2022", which not only predicted that the global population will reach 8 billion on November 15, 2022, but also predicted that in 2023 India's total population will surpass China and become the largest in the world.
According to the report, India's population in 2022 will be 1.412 billion, while China's will be 1.426 billion. Therefore, India will surpass China in population by mid-2023. The report also predicts that India's population will reach 1.668 billion by 2050.
Uncle Mu noticed that this report mentioned that Asia and Africa are the main areas for global population growth. By 2050, more than half of global population growth is expected to be concentrated in eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania. They are all Asian and African countries, including India, but not China.
What does it mean for India to have such a large population?
In fact, the United Nations may not have expected that India's population will grow so rapidly that it will surpass China in 2023. If you look at the United Nations' forecasts over the past few years, you will find this problem.
For example, the United Nations mentioned in a population report in June 2019 that India's total population will exceed China's by 2027.
This data seems to be too conservative now, because as Uncle Mu mentioned above, the latest report predicts that India will be the world's most populous country in 2023, which is four years ahead of the 2019 prediction!
This example shows that India's population growth rate is beyond the control of the United Nations.
Generally speaking, moderate population growth is beneficial to the economy maintaining a certain speed. Because population growth means a corresponding increase in the labor force, this will continue to accumulate a country’s demographic dividend.
Young people in India
India's demographic dividend is very good, because the country is basically a young country, and the population under the age of 35 accounts for more than 60% of the country's total population. Therefore, India has never been short of labor, and even in the foreseeable future In the coming decades, the demographic dividend will not fade.
However, Uncle Mu also noticed that some Indians are also reflecting on the fact that excessive population expansion has increased India’s risks.
For example, according to the United Nations report, India has surpassed China to become the world's most populous country. No matter how many years earlier it comes, it will still be a trend, but India's land has not increased.
Indians like to compare with the United States. They think that India's land is only one-third of the United States, but in a few years India's population may be five times that of the United States!
Can India allow so many people to live a stable life? This is a test.
Some Indian analysts have noticed that since the early 1970s, the slogan "population is destiny" has become popular, which means that the size of a country's population distribution determines its future direction to a large extent. This future is largely unaffected by economic policy, natural disasters, business cycles, and even election cycles. Indirect demography affects politics, which in turn affects the progress of a country.
For example, India's neighbor Sri Lanka - its people voted for a majority government, but the government's policies made mistakes, and then the economy suffered a double blow due to the new crown epidemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, leading to today's chaos and turmoil. The country's population has failed to benefit from development and has instead become a driving force for social unrest.
Therefore, the long-term future direction of a country does depend on its demographic structure, distribution and trends.
Therefore, if India wants to develop better, it must not only pay attention to population growth, but also pay attention to the improvement of population structure and quality, which will enable the country to progress in the future.
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