It has been nearly a month since the "531" new policy for photovoltaics was released. The market cooling phenomenon caused by the policy has gradually emerged. Many photovoltaic manufacturing companies have begun to suspend some production lines, take short vacations and sell off inventory. The industry has once again entered a dark period.
Since the launch of the "Golden Sun Demonstration Project" in 2009, the photovoltaic industry has experienced ups and downs over the past ten years, alternating between hot and cold periods. Among them, there are many companies that were once brilliant but have now fallen from the altar, but there are even more outstanding companies that have experienced hardships and burst out with tenacious vitality to lead the industry forward. According to industry insiders, not all companies will be able to survive the impact of this new policy.
market shrinkage intensifies, new round of industry reshuffle
In the past two years, the topic of industry reshuffle has never stopped, but thanks to the rapid development of the industry, real naked swimmers have not appeared. After the New Photovoltaic Deal, people in the industry generally reported that “a new round of reshuffle is really coming”!
With subsidies reduced and scale restricted, the photovoltaic market instantly entered a freezing period, leaving many companies with nothing to do. It is understood that a week after the new policy was released, some companies successively released internal news, either taking temporary vacations, suspending production, or selling off inventory, and some even found themselves in a situation where it was difficult to pay employees' wages. According to Zhiyu analysis by industry insiders, due to the overly optimistic domestic forecast of the 630 market and the wave of order returns after May 31, the inventory management of component companies has completely failed.
The market is weak, and the price pressure on the industrial chain has also increased sharply, especially in the upstream link. Recently, monocrystalline giant Longi and Zhonghuan's silicon wafers have successively cut prices, further opening up another game of mono-crystalline price war. Affected by the policy, polycrystalline silicon wafer manufacturers have lowered their operating rates and prices to maintain their cost-effectiveness advantage in the market. In order to shorten the price gap with polycrystalline, monocrystalline has also quickly followed suit. “2018 will be a more difficult year, but to a certain extent, it will also force polysilicon wafer manufacturers to try every means to reduce costs, such as working on cutting technology to improve the yield rate, while also transforming the size of battery wafers to improve Power." said Liu Dejie, general manager of Dahai Group.
In Liu Dejie’s view, the introduction of this new policy will directly accelerate the elimination of weakly competitive manufacturing companies with single product structures, low technical content, poor stability, and uneven domestic and foreign market layouts.
Compared with manufacturing companies, the situation of photovoltaic dealers is not optimistic. Even though the National Energy Administration recently issued a document to correct local power grid companies' suspension of distributed photovoltaic power generation, such as grid connection, registration and subsidy advance payment, many photovoltaic dealers believe that it will not alleviate the impact of the new policy on the household photovoltaic market. negative impact.
"This policy has hurt many people's hearts!" A household agent of a first-tier brand from Zhejiang said that due to the sluggish market, he has been busy clearing inventory recently, and the store may face the possibility of closing, but has made changes. Get ready.
Diversified response paths under the crisis
The policy has changed dramatically, and the entire industry has been plunged into a quagmire. In the short term, most companies will have to swallow the bad consequences of the New Deal; but in the long term, advantaged companies will become stronger and stronger after this baptism, and the "Matthew Effect" will also become more obvious, not only capital and technology will be more concentrated , and the market share will further increase.
Zhiyu predicts that the photovoltaic manufacturing industry will usher in an era of specialization, especially in many upstream links, which will usher in an era of oligopoly. Under the New Deal, different companies will also have different roundabout strategies, either to develop technology, to move overseas, or to develop photovoltaic-related businesses.
In 2018, the threshold for the third batch of photovoltaic leaders was raised, accelerating the iteration of industry technology and the exit of backward production capacity. Judging from the current market demand for high-efficiency components, the trend of technology application such as PERC, half-cut, and double-sided has become unstoppable. "This year's industry reshuffle is unavoidable, but it is a challenge and an opportunity for companies that have technological reserves and have always maintained their advanced nature. Liu Dejie said that currently, Dahai Group's silicon wafer and component products are advancing as planned, among which Half-cut modules and film-coated modules have received very good orders. Next, multi-gate and double-sided double-glass modules will gradually enter mass production.
In late April, six ministries and commissions jointly released the "Smart Photovoltaic Industry Development Action Plan", which provides important development opportunities to improve the technical level of the photovoltaic industry and promote the transformation and upgrading of photovoltaic manufacturing and applications to intelligence. It is worth mentioning that as one of China's top 500 companies and the country's first blockchain technology industry adopter, Dahai Group will comprehensively create a new model of intelligent development in the photovoltaic industry. Under the New Deal, through the combination of entities and the Internet, it will be an important layout direction of Dahai Group to create a comprehensive energy solution service provider including electricity sales, distribution network, energy storage, operation and maintenance, Internet of Things, finance, etc.
In addition, "going global" has become an important choice for many photovoltaic companies to open up new ways out. Zhu Gongshan, chairman of GCL Group, recently stated that 70% to 90% of global silicon wafers, solar cells, and components come from China, and more than 50% of inverters come from China. The global market is increasingly dependent on China's photovoltaic industry. promote. Therefore, in addition to the domestic mainland market, other regional markets will still be potential markets that photovoltaic companies focus on developing. Take Dahai Group as an example. Its products have been supplied to the Taiwan market and overseas markets such as Europe, the United States, Japan, Mexico , etc., aiming to resist the risks brought by the single market. Of course, considering that many emerging photovoltaic markets in India, Europe and various continents will see strong growth in 2018, some first-line component and inverter companies have opened factories in these markets and formulated a series of development plans.
2018 is almost halfway over, and the photovoltaic industry still has a long way to go.
Source: Polaris Solar Photovoltaic Network
