According to Taiwanese media reports, Taiwan’s “nine-in-one” election is approaching, but Taiwan’s median voters and first-time investors are still waiting to see. The fierce battle on the Internet is the key! In an interview, Qu Zhaoxiang, a professor at the Institute of Political Science at Taiwan Normal University, said that both median voters and first-time voters are deeply affected by online public opinion, and the Kuomintang is chasing the DPP in terms of air combat strength; Professor Liu Zhaolong at Changhua Normal University said He said that judging from the two turmoils of Hsinchu Mayor Lin Zhijian, political stars are falling faster and faster, which shows that voters are more rational and no longer stick to political parties or candidates.
Both median voters and first-time investors are deeply affected by the trend of online public opinion.
Liu Zhaolong said that when analyzing voters, we should focus on "policy", "party" and "candidate". Central voters are mainly biased towards policy orientation and are still waiting to see political opinions or specific issues. , but the overall definition in academic circles is still quite vague, and it is difficult to estimate the proportion of median voters. But he also pointed out that judging from the past few elections, "the number of voters who only start to think about who they want to vote for before the election is indeed increasing."
Qu Zhaoxiang believes that although there are currently more voters who have not expressed their opinions than in previous years , but there are still four months to go before the polling day, and the election still has time to ferment; in addition, in this election campaign, each political party nominated them relatively late, emphasizing that “the time for independent voters to really make a decision mostly falls In the last two weeks of the election."
He also pointed out that the main source of information for voters in the middle is electronic media, and they are highly mobilized by online public opinion. However, most of the political issues on the island now focus on Lin Zhijian's "paper gate" and "baseball gate". In terms of events, there is not much news in counties and cities other than Taoyuan and Hsinchu. Candidates in these counties and cities have also returned to the traditional land battle style, resulting in the actions of middle voters still not obvious.
In every election, there will be new "first-time investors", adding uncertainties to the election. In this regard, Qu Zhaoxiang analyzed that since 2014, first-time investors have participated in elections to a very high degree, and most of these groups are from the 3C generation (referring to computers, communications and consumer electronics Consumer Electrics). Deeply affected by online public opinion. But now there is no "dried mango" sentiment like in 2020. Whether the voting enthusiasm can be recreated at that time remains to be seen.
He pointed out that the recent "baseball scandal" and "essay scandal" have had relatively little impact on young students. The baseball stadium incident will also have an impact on young fans, but the essay incident will have an impact on young students in their early 20s who have never written a thesis. Said, the distance is quite far. Qu Zhaoxiang emphasized that both median voters and first-time voters tend to rely on online public opinion, but so far there has been no incident that can "burn the vote will of these groups."
Liu Zhaolong analyzed the "first-time investors" and pointed out that the current first-time investors were all born after Taiwan's "democratization" and failed to delve into the authoritarianism and historical origins of the past. They believed that democracy and freedom were quite natural and opposed the opposition. There is a clear sense of being conservative and anti-authoritarian, and there is even a saying of "natural independence". These ethnic groups have less preference for the Kuomintang, which has been associated with authoritative ruling authorities in the past, so they are more favorable to the DPP's electoral prospects.
Both median voters and first-time voters are deeply affected by the Internet, and the DPP has the advantage of being good at cyber warfare. Qu Zhaoxiang analyzed that in the past, the Kuomintang had a strong local organization and long-term cooperation experience with local factions. It had long focused on land warfare. Non-Kuomintang parties were relatively skilled in air warfare. However, in 2014 and 16, the Kuomintang After suffering heavy losses due to air combat for 20 years, they have gradually improved their air combat capabilities and gradually narrowed the gap with the DPP.
Liu Zhaolong also pointed out that the Kuomintang has learned the advantages of its opponents in recent years and learned campaign techniques such as big data and public opinion. The most concrete demonstration is the former Kaohsiung mayor Han Guoyu sweeping the entire Taiwan.
"So-called political stars will fall off the altar within one to two years." Liu Zhaolong pointed out that this shows that voters have become more rational and will not be easily kidnapped.He further gave an example: all previous leaders in Taiwan have experienced the situation of standing up for public attention, but later the polls fell to less than 50%; while Lin Zhijian maintains a young and handsome image, and has significant local political achievements, but his reputation is Also because of the tragic fall in the Double Door incident, the most severe warning has been given to the past election campaign method that mainly focused on political stars. (Editor: Fang Yanyan)
