The path of trading seems simple, but it hides many risks and uncontrollable factors, and growth requires time to pave the way ~
is not stable and not ruthless enough. It is not an exaggeration to use this sentence to describe the gold bulls yesterday. There is really a feeling of hating iron but not steel - .- Following the explosive market price of gold in early trading yesterday, the ensuing adjustments were relatively lacking, three shocks in one day Neither broke the $1,740 stranglehold.
This state is not a wide range adjustment of the market. Otherwise, like last year's operation path, a reversal should have been achieved long ago! Even if is not a cycle reversal, it can still repair dozens of dollars of space. It is still the fundamentals of the market that limit the inflow of emotions, but I think the embarrassing situation will turn around. After all, the market will release U.S. CPI data for June tonight.
1. What is CPI
CPI, also known as Consumer Price Index , is a price change indicator based on the prices of products and services related to residents' lives. The Consumer Price Index determines how much consumers spend to purchase goods and services, which affects the cost of business operations. and will affect the fiscal policies and financial policies formulated by the government. Therefore, CPI is usually used as an important indicator to observe inflation .
2.What is inflation?
When the total amount of social commodities remains unchanged and the amount of money is over-issued, commodity prices will increase, resulting in inflation. does not mean that inflation will definitely harm the social economy. In , we divide inflation into mild inflation and hyperinflation.
The reason why the U.S. economy can escape the siege of the epidemic is that the Federal Reserve uses inflation to achieve the purpose of stimulating the economy. Therefore, we can draw a conclusion that the moderate inflation of has a promoting effect on the social economy.
3. Why does the Fed want to control inflation?
Moderate inflation The other extreme is hyperinflation. Hyperinflation will first cause currency depreciation and capital outflow, and then increase the unemployment rate. It can even cause sudden panic buying of goods, bank runs, and other phenomena, making it difficult to continue normal production and operations.
As the U.S. economy shakes off the impact of the epidemic, the current level of inflation makes the Federal Reserve worry about the coming of hyperinflation. Therefore, the Federal Reserve needs to tighten sharply in the short term, quickly suppress inflation, and then gradually moderate the policy to ensure economic realization. Soft landing.
4.CPI data expectations
The current market expectation is that the U.S. CPI data in June will record 8.8%, higher than the previous value of 8.6%. From the perspective of market expectations, this is a data that appears to be negative and is actually bullish for gold. appears to be negative, which means that the expected value of the data is higher than the previous value, and which is actually bullish, which means that higher inflation has boosted the market's risk aversion.
However, I think inflation should not go too high. After all, the Federal Reserve continues to tighten loose monetary policy , and the data expectations are too high. The market expected 8.7% yesterday, and it was raised to 8.8% today. , which gives the data extremely limited room to play, so I think the data tonight may have less impact.
Even though the direct impact of the data may not be large, it will have an impact on the next steps of the Federal Reserve, so we need to be cautious in actual transactions. After gold failed to break through yesterday, it continued to fluctuate and fall in the short term. This makes me feel very uncomfortable. Well, seems like the market has not bottomed out, because the market bottoms out and tops out, which is not what it looks like.
Therefore, in terms of subsequent transactions, it is necessary to take good protection before intervening in and holding positions, whether it is long or short. The key prices below focus on 1680, 1700 and 1722. The key prices above focus on 1744, 1767 and 1775.
There will be a price reaction when the market tests the key price, but for subsequent positions, flexible methods need to be adapted. The actual trading of is mainly based on real orders, so just participate and do your own protection and planning!
