Statement:
This article is for reference only and does not constitute operation advice; if you operate on your own, please pay attention to position control and risk at your own risk.
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The key to whether stock trading can make money is to stop losses in time, not whether it can change from losses. Get rid of the trap.
Many traders will fall into a trading misunderstanding: How can they make money in the stock trading market? That is, there will be floating wins after entering the market. In the end, the winnings must be paid out. If there are floating losses after entering the market, the final result must be that the arbitrage is solved without losing money or it becomes profitable. In short, in a word, it is all All transactions are done without losing money. Is it possible that the accuracy rate can reach 100%
?
This is an impossible task. If you are trading with this idea, the final result will be to leave the market very unconvinced, thinking that you must still have some trading secrets that you have not learned.
Don’t just focus on making money. This is the easiest way to be blinded by your thinking. This is what the market is best at. Try to summarize a trading idea for yourself: open a position with evidence, exit with a reason, and set a reasonable profit-loss ratio every time. . You can't make money every time, but you can make more profit points than loss points. This is easy to do in the trading model. The difficulty lies in the trading practice. The key point here is that it must be done. Strict trading discipline, don't panic when you hold a right position, don't get lucky when you hold a wrong position, lose small money and make big money is a reasonable trading ecology. As long as the profit and loss on the book of
is within a reasonable profit and loss ratio range, there is actually no such thing as unwinding, because if your stop loss level is not reached, even if there is a floating loss on the book, it does not prove that you are wrong. , there is no such thing as unwinding, it is just a normal process of following the market, if it is right, stay, if it is wrong, stop, and then continue to wait for the next opportunity to enter the market, that's it.
How should beginner stock traders build their own trading system?
Financial investment trading is full of charm because of freedom. From financial freedom to life freedom, it attracts every trader just like the Bible is as sacred to believers. All living beings in the financial speculation market are like the prince crossing the river, but it seems that only a small number of people can leap over the dragon gate and truly achieve freedom of action. The vast majority of traders are still practicing hard on the road of losing money.
There is a method for everything in the world, including trading. When we regard trading as a process, we find that each process basically includes four aspects: opening a position, closing a position, investing funds, and executing the mentality. It is also the most important. The composition of the basic trading system.
About opening a position
Opening a position is the beginning of trading. Many traders pursue a sure win when opening a position. This is actually wrong. There are many low points, but there is only one lowest point. Sometimes, the more precise you look for it At low points, it is often easier to ignore the overall market. In fact, the choice of entry point is far less mysterious. A 20-day moving average and a bullish K-line at the bottom can constitute a very suitable entry point. Therefore, just start When entering the trading market, you don’t need to think about finding some very complicated trading techniques. It is enough to summarize some of the most common and classic bottom signals or top signals. This is a process of screening and sublimation in subsequent transactions.
About closing a position
Closing a position includes stop loss and take profit.
Regardless of whether you choose the moving average, K-line, or other technical indicators as the basis for opening a position, after opening the position, the closing point should actually be generated accordingly. For example, taking the simplest moving average system as an example, if After you choose the moving average golden cross to open a position and enter the market, when the bulls do not continue to spread out but start to entangle, prudent traders should consider stopping the loss and exiting, or closing the position when it turns into a dead cross. In addition, when After entering the market, the moving average always shows long divergence. When the book starts to make profits, you can choose a mobile profit-taking point.
is about investing funds
is also about fund management.The use of
fund management is actually to make transactions more cautious, leaving room for no matter what. For novices, if the funds are not large at the beginning, they can choose the simplest pyramid method of adding positions, and then they can try it as their trading experience increases. Choose to increase or decrease positions in combination with key positions.
About mentality execution
If the trading system is compared to a car, mentality execution is the engine of the car. In fact, the transaction itself is not complicated. The difficulty lies in execution. Even a 20-day moving average is used as the opening point and peace. Positions can also make money. The reason why it is difficult to achieve such an effect in trading is that the difficulty lies in execution. Only a good mentality and resolute execution can ensure that the trading system can achieve optimal results.
For novice traders, the most important thing is to adhere to the review summary from the perspective of looking at the market from your own perspective at the beginning. Don't place your hope on others to recommend stocks. In trading, no book can be more important than your trading records. , find out the problems in your trading, for example, what is the reason for the loss? Signal error? Not executing on signal? Emotional trading? If it is the first type, you need to make statistics to see if the trading signal you set is a profit signal with a high probability. If it is, then tell yourself that this is just a normal filtering of the system, and then wait patiently for the next signal to appear.
Master the timing of the dealer's shipments
When the dealer is in the market, the most important thing is to dispatch the goods, and dispatching the goods is also the key to the success of the dealer. Therefore, bookmakers are very cautious about this matter. Usually the dealer will try every means to complete the shipment in time, but when encountering some unexpected situations, the dealer has to look for opportunities to complete the shipment. It can be inferred from this that the dealer's shipments can be roughly divided into two situations: active shipments and passive shipments. Active shipping means taking advantage of the trend when popularity and environmental factors are the best, while passive shipping means being forced to ship when unpredictable factors such as emergencies occur.
1. Timing of active shipments
Generally speaking, the opportunities for market makers to actively ship goods are as follows:
(1) There is major good news related to market makers, a large number of follow-up orders swarm in, and the funds settled in the market increase;
(2) The stock price has risen to the market maker's target price;
(3) The listed companies related to individual stocks have reached the best state in recent years;
(4) The popularity of the market has exploded, buying orders are very strong, and there is a bull market scene.
Buneng Shares (stock code: 000601) has attracted the attention of many retail investors after a period of sharp rise in its stock price. The trading volume has increased significantly. All parties are relatively optimistic about its future market. The stock price has shown a There is a prosperous scene, but in fact, the dealer has already quietly started to ship goods when it attracts the attention of all parties. The sudden increase in trading volume is the ironclad evidence of the dealer's shipment. Since then, the stock has begun a long path of decline, making retail investors who were chasing the rise complain endlessly. It can also be seen from Figure 5-2 that although the stock price still often closes the positive line after it reaches the top, its center of gravity has been moving downward.
2. Passive shipping opportunities
In addition to active shipments, the occurrence of some situations will also force market makers to choose passive shipments. Generally, the opportunities for passive shipments are as follows:
(1) Industry negative policies related to market makers When it is suddenly introduced, the banker can only abandon the original plan and adopt emergency shipments to avoid the risks brought by the policy;
(2) When the market changes, the banker is not sure that individual stocks can go against the trend, so they can only choose Cash out temporarily and wait for a better opportunity before getting involved;
(3) There is a problem with the banker's capital chain, so he can only sell the chips for cash regardless of the cost to meet the urgent need;
(4) The fundamentals of listed companies related to market makers have deteriorated , a major problem occurs. At this time, holding on will only increase the risk and pressure of the banker, so the banker must ship and cash out;
(5) The banker team has internal evidence. Someone did not act according to the plan and fled in advance, and others will also They can only be forced to sell;
(6) funds, loans, etc. have reached the repayment period and can only be returned through shipments and cash out;
(7) major negative news appears, investors rush to sell their holdings, and the stock price collapses. The banker insisted that it could only result in more losses and had no choice but to sell;
On March 2, 2013, Wanfu Biotech (stock code: 300268) issued a self-examination announcement, admitting that the cumulative inflated income from 2008 to 2011 was about 740 million yuan. , the operating profit was artificially increased by about 180 million yuan, and the net profit was artificially increased by about 160 million yuan. On May 10, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued a fine of 76.65 million yuan to Ping An Securities, the intermediary company involved in Wanfu Biotech’s fraudulent listing case, and suspended its sponsorship qualifications for three months. Sponsor representatives Wu Wenhao and He Tao were banned from entering the market for life. This major bad news not only caused the stock price to fall sharply continuously, but also forced the banker of the stock to change bankers (as shown in Figure 5-3).
(8) Due to irreversible policy suppression, bankers can only distribute and cash out obediently.
When stock investors understand the dealer's shipping timing, they can better grasp the dealer's rhythm. When stock investors seize the dealer's opportunity to ship, they must flee decisively. Don't give away the benefits you have already received because of temporary greed and illusions about the banker. Regardless of whether it is a banker or an ordinary investor, as long as the chips in hand are not exchanged for real money, this stock market war will not be over.
Signs of dealer shipment
No matter how cautious the dealer is, it is impossible to be completely "invisible" when shipping. As long as the dealer ships, there will be clues left. If stock investors can use their own wisdom and experience to ride on the strong bankers' coattails in a timely manner, half the battle will be won. However, following the banker only means that investors have bought stocks with potential for appreciation in the future, but it does not mean that they have made a profit. Although there are gratifying profits on the books, if the profits on the books cannot be converted into actual profits, it is just talk on paper. Once the dealer changes his face or there are other emergencies, the bubble profits on the books of investors will disappear. Therefore, timely cashing out is an important step for investors and bankers to operate, and it is also the key point that determines whether investors can truly make profits.
If investors want to ensure real profits, the most important thing is to be able to keenly detect the signs of dealer shipments and "escape from the scene" before the dealer ships goods. This is not an easy thing, but investors can decide whether to ship based on the following situations:
1. Increase in positive news
Increase in positive news means an increase in good news on TV, newspapers, and the Internet. If there is not a lot of good news spread through various media during the rise, but suddenly one day the positive publicity begins to increase and good news continues to be released, then it means that the market makers have begun to retreat and are about to ship.
2. The banker's goal of setting up the banker has reached
. The banker will formulate a detailed "battle plan" before setting up the banker, and the profit target is a very important part of this "battle plan". Although the specific profit target of the banker cannot be verified, stock investors can still infer a rough profit target of the banker based on changes in stock price and trading volume.When using different methods to estimate, the conclusions drawn are all close to one value, then this value is the approximate profit target of the banker, and then the timing of the banker's shipment can be inferred.
3. Large volume but no increase
Generally, as long as there is a situation of large volume but no increase, it can basically be concluded that the dealer is ready to ship.
4. Should the stock price rise?
When the general trend and minor sentiment indicate that the stock price should rise, but the stock price does not rise, this is a sign before the dealer ships.
It can be seen from the K-line chart of Tongguang Cable (stock code: 300265) that the stock hit the highest point of the year on March 10, 2014, and the trading volume also released a huge amount. It stands to reason that the stock's rise will continue, but since the market makers have intervened, they will not let investors sit back and enjoy the gains. Once the banker formulates a plan, it will strictly implement it. Therefore, when the stock price reaches the profit target, the banker will decisively ship out and leave the market. Judging from the subsequent K-line chart, the stock price began a downward path (as shown in Figure 5-4).
If the above phenomena occur in the stock market, once the stock price falls below the key price, even if the trading volume does not increase, stock investors should immediately cash out and flee. Because for the dealer, the cooperation of trading volume is not required in the early stage of shipment.
is shipped at the end of the rising segment of the main control market.
is shipped at the end of the rising segment (Figure 6-12). After the stock price has entered the main rising segment, when it enters the mid-term consolidation market, a "triangular shape" in morphology appears. The triangle pattern includes all triangle and wedge patterns. When the consolidation trend comes to an end, the stock price is in the final rising segment, and the main force often takes advantage of the rising trend of this final rising segment to carry out shipments.
Because in the process of mid-stage consolidation, trading volume usually ebbs, so at the end of the uptrend, in order to ship goods smoothly, the main force will usually cooperate with the release of bullish news and carry out actions of pulling in and selling out at the same time. Retail investors will benefit from this, and the market often starts bidding. The future looks bright, and trading volume will also show rising signals.
When the stock price rises to P1, it should cross the important golden spiral multiple, then stop the increase violently and destroy the short-term bull support. After the end of the shipment in the last rising period, the stock price will generally show a small five-wave downward trend, and some will Carry out in a falling mode of shipment. As far as actual operating discipline is concerned, if the band rises to the golden spiral multiple and a sell signal appears, the exit of long positions should be executed immediately, because the stock price will either enter consolidation or reverse in the market, assuming that the stock price will continue to rise after consolidation. If the price rises, a buying signal will naturally be generated. It is not too late to step in and go long at this time. If there is a reversal, you will not suffer losses because you wait and see empty-handed.
practical application example
Please see Figure 6-13. The Datong stock price is calculated using the golden spiral, and the target of 2.618 times of a certain rising period = (8.2 - 4.88) × 2.618 + 4.88 = 13.57 yuan. When the stock price rises and crosses this target, , the bar line marked H stops rising, and the stock price immediately enters the mid-stage consolidation trend. The consolidation pattern is a falling wedge. The stock price rises after the falling wedge, which is usually positioned as the final rising trend.
When the stock price breaks through the downward trend line, the volume will start to rise, indicating that A continues to roll out large amounts. It is advisable to beware of the main force's pump-and-dump shipments at the end of the rise, and then take another section to calculate the golden spiral target = (9.3 - 4.88) × 2.618+4.88=16.45 yuan. Mark C first appeared in large amounts, and then marked B crossed the target to meet the target, and presented a three-column fragrance K-line pattern that was unfavorable to the bulls. Finally, mark D fell below the last positive reversal low in the rise. point, and the price decreases and the volume increases, that is, the shipment is completed at the end of the rising period first, and then the reversal type of shipment is completed here.
Please see Figure 6-14. The stock price of Mingden is calculated using the golden spiral. The target of 4.236 times = (37.9 - 24.5) × 4.236 + 24.5 = 81.26 yuan. When the stock price rises and crosses this target, it is found that the previous consolidation trend is It is presented in the triangular finishing form , that is, the rise to 86 yuan is a rise at the end of the rise.
first showed a signal that the volume can ebb in mark A, and then the band marked B rose after the triangle consolidation, and finally reached a 4.236 times increase. Therefore, it is quite reasonable to position this period of rise as a pump-and-dump shipment, especially with the mark After C crosses the target in large numbers, it is the most obvious behavior of lightning rod to stop the rise. Then the stock price reverses, and the shipment is suppressed in a falling shipping mode. You can see that the marks D, E, F, and G all have a large number of stops. This kind of The shipping model will be detailed in a later article.
Please see Figure 6-15. Acer’s stock price is calculated using the golden spiral. The target of 2.618 times = (117-45) × 2.618 + 45 = 233.50 yuan. When approaching this target, it can be seen from the figure that it is a diffusion wedge. finishing form.
During the consolidation process, the 21-day moving average showed a downward trend, and sudden large amounts appeared on markers A and B, accompanied by the price stopping. At that time, it could be suspected that these large amounts were part of the increase in shipments. Mark D showed a rising signal in the band, and the stock price subsequently pulled up for a period of time to cross the multiple target of 2.618. Before crossing the target, the mark C appeared in large quantities again, and then left a long upper shadow line to stop the rise, and the stock price reversed pressure. Returning, it is obvious that the shipment pattern in the last rising period has been completed, and finally a signal that the volume can ebb appears at mark E, implying that the stock price will appear in a 5-wave downward pattern in the future.
Please see Figure 6-16. Canon’s stock price is calculated using the golden spiral. The target of 4.236 times = (20.3-16.7) × 4.236 + 16.7 = 31.95 yuan, and the target of 6.854 times = (20.3 - 16.7) × 6.854 + 16.7 =41.37 yuan. After the stock price first crossed the multiple of 4.236, it formed a triangle consolidation pattern.
When the stock price breaks through the downward trend line of the triangle, it is first positioned as the market in the final rising segment. It can be speculated that the stock price has the opportunity to advance to a multiple of 6.854, and pay attention to whether there are major shipments during this final rising segment. sign. A large number of long black stops appear on mark A, and then the price increases by the amount marked B, crossing 6.854 times, and completes the island-shaped reversal K-line pattern marked D. Therefore, the long order meets the limit multiple, and there is a long position. In case of doubts, it is advisable to exit the wait-and-see situation first, and finally mark C. The volume can subside, which is evidence that the main shipment has ended.
Average cost shipment
Average cost shipment means that the stock price rises after the bottom of the market. Since it has met the minimum increase, certain people who enter the market at the bottom will first exit with short-term long orders and wait for the market to be washed. After it's over, come in and take over. There are usually two purposes for this: one is because the main force lacks funds or the chips are not fully grasped, so in order to reduce the cost of holding shares, it will first make a short-term exit; the other is to test the market water temperature in order to take advantage of The short-term exit method is to test the selling pressure and buying strength, and based on this, observe whether others are coveting this stock. Its trend model is shown in Figure 3-27.
To calculate the average cost, you must first take out the correct bottom form neckline. As long as the K-line entity is below the neckline, it should be included in the calculation. That is to say, take these qualifying closing prices and calculate their average value as the average cost. The first short-term shipping position H1 = average cost × 1.3; the second short-term shipping position H2 = H1 × 1.2.
The relationship between volume and price during shipment is the same as the focus of research and judgment on other shipping methods. When the main force is at the bottom of the market, the indicators will show a technical signal of idling. The trading volume will not necessarily show obvious signs of purchase, and the volume will not be enlarged. There will only be signals of trial order volume, push volume or attack volume. Investors may be wondering: With so little trading volume, how can we position ourselves as the main average cost? Since when this form occurs, it is often not the lowest point of the long-term correction trend, but the end point of the correction after the completion of the initial rise or the main rise. Therefore, the main purpose of the bottom is to complete the signal that the chips have settled. If the rising wave before the bottom is an initial rising wave, then the real purchase area should be located in the initial rising wave.
The bottom trend can be divided into the bottom under the moving average and the bottom when testing the moving average. The former is about to launch the main rising wave, and the latter may be at the starting point of the extended wave of the main rising wave, or near the starting point of the final rising wave.Since the trend is using the bottom pattern to move upward, investors may ask: Is the golden spiral or the average cost shipment calculation better? There is no standard answer to this question, just as we can never accurately predict the rising value. Therefore, a more appropriate approach is to list possible target values, and after the stock price crosses the target, based on its volume and price structure, make the decision that investors think is most appropriate at the time.
Please see Figure 3-28. Jiayu's stock price started bottoming at 3.55 yuan. When the short-term bottom is completed, the entire range marked A must be included in the calculation of the bottom average cost. Generally, paid software will provide this special function, so there is no need to calculate it one by one. Of course, this calculation method is only a rough estimate and does not completely represent the real average cost of holding shares of the main force.
After calculation, the average cost of mark A is 3.74 yuan, and the first short-term shipping position = 3.74×1.3= 4.86 yuan. The highest price marked B is 4.85 yuan, which is 0.01 yuan different from the target price. The trading volume and sales volume on that day both showed a sharp increase. According to the three-day volume and price structure, as long as the volume shrinks the next day, the stock price will form. The short-term rise stopped, and the actual trend reached a new high in this band at mark C, which also formed a short-term turning point. Therefore, the first short-term average cost shipment should be positioned at the position marked B. After marking C, the stock price of
did not go back to the correction. Instead, it increased with a firm trend. Therefore, it can be estimated that there is a second short-term shipment. At this time, the stop-high point after the first shipment should be used. 5.13 yuan is calculated, that is, the second short-term shipping position = 5.13 × 1.2 = 6.16 yuan. The stock price crosses mark D, but the shipping phenomenon is not clear enough. It is not until mark E shows a sharp increase in volume and a surge in sales on the same day that it can be positioned as a short-term shipping concern. Mark F stops rising and follows a long negative sunset. It is a technical confirmation.
Please see Figure 3-29. After the mid- to long-term correction, Nanran's stock price rose in a tidal wave-making pattern, and set a short-term bottom in the range marked A, prompting the stock price to rise. The average cost of the bottom was calculated to be 14.62 yuan, which is the first short-term exit. Cargo location=14.62×1.3=19 yuan.
Because the stock price rises with tidal waves as the main axis, it stops rising and corrects when it reaches the H mark, which does not meet the estimated shipping position. After correcting to the L mark, the P mark once again attacks the bottom of the market. Whether it is calculated based on shipments or tidal wave evaluation, the stock price has the opportunity to rise to a new high. Therefore, you can consider entering the market with short-term long orders at that time.
When the stock price crosses the first short-term shipping position marked B and uses the average cost to evaluate the first short-term shipment position, the K line closes negative and the volume increases, which often forms a short-term turning point. Since the fundamentals of the stock do not perform well, short-term long orders can be started first. Exit with the trend, and then enter the market when support is found and a bull attack signal appears. If the stock price of
can cross the first short-term shipping point, investors should check whether it is a true breakthrough at that time, formulate appropriate operating strategies, and evaluate the next possible short-term stop point. Here, we take the average cost of the second shipment as an example, and take the high point of the first shipment to stop rising at 19.3 yuan to calculate, then the second short-term shipment position = 19.3 × 1.2 = 23.16 yuan. The trend crosses this price at mark C and stops rising at mark D, ending the upward trend of this wave.
Please see Figure 3-30. Rongcheng's stock price started bottoming at 7.26 yuan, and completed the short-term bottom with 7.97 yuan as the neckline. At this time, the entire range marked A can be used to calculate the bottom average cost of 7.71 yuan, so the first short-term shipping position = 7.71×1.3 =10.02 yuan, the highest price marked B is 10 yuan, which is 0.02 yuan different from the target price. Based on the day's trading volume and the day's sales volume structure, it should be suspected of short-term shipment. Mark C is once again close to the target price, and the volume and price structure still has concerns about short-term shipments. Finally, a short-term turning point was formed at 10.45 yuan.
When the stock price rises after a short-term correction and breaks through the stop-rising high of 10.45 yuan after the first shipment, if the stock price continues to rise, the target calculation for the second short-term shipment can be calculated = 10.45 × 1.2 = 12.54 yuan . When the stock price crosses mark D, the day's trading volume and the same day's sales volume all raise concerns about short-term shipments. The stop of the rise mark E and the subsequent correction of the stock price confirm the completion of short-term shipments.
Common traps in the fourth wave
After the sharp rise in the third wave, the stock price is already at a high level, and those who are prophetic have made huge profits and left the market. At this time, there is a big difference between the long and short parties. The long parties enter the market to attract goods and the short parties leave the market, thus forming a long-short balance. The fourth wave usually appears in the form of a single wave downward trend, a platform trend and a complex triangle shape. The 4th wave and the 2nd wave adjustment are highly interchangeable. If the 2nd wave appears in a simple form, the 4th wave adjustment will appear in a complex form, and vice versa. The same is true for time. If the adjustment time of the second wave is too long, the time of the fourth wave will be relatively short. The decline in wave 4 is usually 0.382 times the increase in wave 3, and the bottom of wave 4 must be higher than the top of wave 1. Due to the temptation or stimulation of the sharp rise in the third wave, most market makers induced the market to go long when adjusting in the fourth wave, but some also induced the market to go short.
(1) False adjustment trap. In real trading operations, it often happens that the stock price falls back down after two rounds of rising prices, forming a 4th wave trend in form. The characteristics of the wave shape are very clear, indicating the emergence of a 5th wave of rising prices. However, just as investors bought the stock one after another, the stock price adjusted downward, forming a fourth wave adjustment trap.
Figure 183, Qianfeng Shares (600733): Judging from the stock trend chart, the stock price rose after the first wave, pulled back in the second wave, rose again in the third wave, and then fell back into the fourth wave of adjustment. After the stock price falls back for a certain distance, it forms a small platform consolidation pattern (the circled part in the picture). At this time, it conforms to the characteristics of a wave shape from a graphic point of view. There is a possibility of a fifth wave in the future, which can be used as a buying signal. However, after a short period of consolidation, the stock price broke through downward, resulting in the failure of the fourth wave adjustment, and buyers at this price were trapped.
So, why did the stock fail to adjust at this price?
First, when the stock price rose again, it did not receive active cooperation from trading volume. During the period of platform consolidation, it tried to rise many times and lured retail investors with the price limit, but failed to get the active follow-up of retail investors, and finally changed the trend. plan.
Second, the stock price was significantly suppressed by the 30-day moving average, which helped the stock price fall.
Thirdly, after the third wave completes the extended wave trend, when the stock price surges upward again (the boxed part in the picture), a technical trap is created, which gives retail investors the feeling that the stock price has risen sharply, and the market makers quietly ship out of it.
Fourthly, at the top of the third wave, we encounter an area of intensive trading in the early stage, which is double suppressed by early hold-up orders and profit-making orders at the bottom. The dealer also chooses to sell high here, causing the stock price to fall rapidly, and after a short period of decline, it changes hands. Then it broke down again.
When investors encounter this trend, they do not need to intervene prematurely to avoid variables in the market outlook. They can wait for the stock price to successfully break through the 30-day moving average and follow up on dips.
Figure 184, China Coal Energy (601898): The stock price moved upward after bottoming out, completing the first wave, second wave, and third wave trend, and then fell back and entered the fourth wave adjustment. During the adjustment process, a small platform consolidation pattern (circled part in the picture) is formed, which is consistent with wave characteristics from a graphic point of view, indicating that there will be a fifth wave of rising market in the future, which is a buying signal. However, there was no motivation for the stock price to rise. After a short period of consolidation, the stock price fell downwards, which led to the failure of the fourth wave adjustment and became a trap for market makers to ship. The trend of
stock is similar to Figure 183. It can be seen from the figure:
is first, the trading volume continues to shrink, and there is no active cooperation when the stock price rises again.
Second, the 30-day moving average continues to fall, suppressing the rise in stock prices.
Third, in the late stage of the third wave of rising prices, which is the high level, the stock price shows a deviation phenomenon of heavy volume but not rising. Such a large "pile of volume" is suspected of being increased by market makers to save themselves. It will be very difficult to break through this area in the future market.
Fourth, after a period of platform consolidation, it tried to go up, but failed to get the active follow-up of retail investors, causing the upswing plan to fail.
When investors encounter this kind of trend, they do not need to intervene prematurely to avoid variables in the market outlook. They can wait for the stock price to successfully break through the 30-day moving average with heavy volume, and follow up on dips when there is an obvious trend.
(2) False overlap trap. One of the unbreakable principles of Elliott Wave Theory: “The bottom of wave 4 cannot overlap with the top of wave 1."In this regard, the American wave master Plunk emphasized that so far, no reason has been found to doubt the reliability of these rules. However, in the actual operation of my country's stock market, bookmakers often use this principle to create technical traps on the market. Sometimes the market makers Deliberately suppressing the low point of wave 4 to near the top of wave 1, so that the two form an overlapping pattern, and even the low point of wave 4 is lower than the high point of wave 1, causing investors to judge that the wave is destroyed. After investors sold the stocks one after another, the stock price entered the main rising trend of the fifth wave, causing retail investors to fall into a shortfall trap.
Figure 185, Zhongchang Shipping (600242): The stock price went through the first wave, the second wave, and the third wave. After the 3rd wave runs, the 4th wave adjustment trend begins. During the stock price fall, the low point of the 4th wave is deliberately suppressed to near the top of the 1st wave, so that the low point of the 4th wave is equal to the high point of the 1st wave. Forming an overlap, according to the principle of "number of waves cannot be violated", the wave pattern of the stock is no longer established, and it is difficult to see the rising trend of the fifth wave in the market outlook, so it is a sell signal. However, after a short period of consolidation, the stock price moved upward and appeared. The 5th wave accelerates the rise, causing those who are out of the market to go short.
So, how to analyze the technical trend of the stock?
It can be seen from the stock trend chart that although the stock price has risen after the 1st wave and 3rd wave, However, the overall increase is not large, and the profits of the market makers are not huge. It is not realistic to ship here. The stock price fell below the top of the first wave, but it smelled like a washout. Moreover, after falling to the top of the first wave, the stock price was at 30. It did not stay below the daily moving average for long, and soon returned to above the 30-day moving average, and the 30-day moving average always kept moving upwards. This not only did not affect the rise of the stock price, but continued to support the stock price to rise further, so the low of the fourth wave If the point overlaps with the top of the first wave, there is no need to panic. When investors encounter this kind of pattern, they can wait for the stock price to return to the 30-day moving average and buy long.
Figure 186, Nanning Department Store (600712): Stock price. After rising in the third wave, it begins to adjust to the trend of the fourth wave. During the stock price's fall, the low of the fourth wave is near the high of the first wave, making the low of the fourth wave equal to the high of the first wave. Forming an overlap, according to the principle of "number of waves cannot be violated", the wave pattern of the stock is no longer established, and it is difficult to see the rising trend of the fifth wave in the market outlook, so it is a sell signal. However, the stock price continued to rise after a short period of consolidation. The 5th wave of rising prices has become a short trap.
The trend of this stock is similar to that of Zhongchang Shipping (600242). Investors can analyze it by themselves. The difference is that when the stock adjusts in the 4th wave, the trading volume is large. Shrinking, indicating that there is very little active selling, the chips in the market have been completely controlled by the market makers, and the market outlook should continue to rise.
Theoretical knowledge is very important, and the purpose of learning is to master theoretical knowledge. However, whether theory can guide practice. The key lies in whether the implementation of theory when guiding practical action is effective and successful. In the investment market, practical experience is particularly important.
There are many books on how to trade on the market. Investors work hard to learn every day, and also attend many investment lectures. They feel deeply when listening to investment lectures and reading books, and feel that they have gained a lot. Subjectively, I feel that trading will be greatly improved from now on. However, once we reach the real trading state, we find that the trading level is still the same and the situation has not fundamentally changed. It is difficult to implement the experience while reading and studying, and the feeling of self-confidence is finally defeated by losses! What is the reason for this?
The author believes that due to the difference in actual trading experience between the investor himself and the person who writes the book or lectures, the habitual behaviors formed by the concepts and systems will have large deviations when implemented into specific real transactions, and when faced and dealt with Sudden changes in the market largely depend on actual trading experience. And this is something that is difficult to learn by reading books or listening to lectures. At critical moments in the
market, experience can often be used to better handle and solve , rather than theoretical knowledge! practical experience is the key link between trading knowledge and specific transactions . Practical experience is irreplaceable, so it is difficult to skip the process of trading experience through learning.The vast majority of investors in the market have a profound foundation in trading theory and are familiar with various trading theories and technical analysis tools. They are familiar with various trading concepts and principles, but they lack rich practical trading experience.
's rich practical trading experience is the irreplaceable and irreplaceable basis for good trading. The knowledge in the market is relatively limited. As long as they are willing to learn, ordinary investors can quickly read the books on the market and master and understand it, but they will never be able to accumulate rich practical experience in a short period of time. Trading experience, this is the most essential difference between ordinary investors and trading veterans, and it is also the fundamental reason why ordinary investors are "well-read in the scriptures" but still suffer heavy losses (at least unable to achieve effective and stable profits).
Different investors have different trading styles due to different trading experiences. Generally speaking, successful traders have very distinct personalities. They form their own personalized trading theories by summarizing their own transactions. trading is a personalized behavior, so actual operations can only be supported by actual trading experience. Investors cannot gain actual trading experience through diligent study. requires time to accumulate practical trading experience, and it also requires the accumulation of practical experience.
Practical trading experience includes: judgment of buying and selling points, stop-loss attitude, trading mentality, objective judgment of the market, and whether to make different or the same decisions in the face of similar (or the same) trading signals, etc., especially Intraday shocks can almost only be handled with experience. Similar trading signals appear, and on different stocks, do you execute or not execute? On which stock does it execute? To what extent is it implemented (fund allocation ratio)?
Sometimes, because you choose different stocks in the same sector or give up a certain stock and trade another stock, although they are all done based on theoretical knowledge, the final trading results are very different. This is because different transactions This is caused by differences in the trading experience of the investors themselves. Investors with rich practical trading experience are like well-trained hunting dogs, highly sensitive to the stocks with the most trading value. They can capture the objects with the most trading value with their almost instinctive reactions. The ability to give up relatively minor stocks cannot be acquired by learning theoretical knowledge.
Another situation is that a new trading opportunity appears in the market, but the original position is still running in the trading system. At this time, should you end the original transaction and start a new transaction, or should you give up the new opportunity and continue to hold it? Original position? hard to decide! In this case, a lot depends on actual trading experience to make the right decision.
In addition, at certain critical or life-or-death moments, only with rich practical trading experience can we get through the difficulties. In fact, it is not that the market is too fast and there is no time to sell, but that investors do not make the right choice because their thinking and reaction cannot keep up with the changing speed of the market. At such a critical moment, it is impossible for investors to decide whether to sell or stay through normal thinking, but by first reaction. The first reaction comes from rich practical trading experience. Investors without practical trading experience are unlikely to have such a quick and instinctive reaction. Investors can never learn such a reaction from books! Just like on-the-spot performances and flashes of inspiration on the field, such reactions often have decisive significance and characteristics that cannot be imitated or learned. And this requires rich practical experience to achieve.
In short, we need to first understand the importance of actual trading experience. Secondly, we should know that actual trading experience is irreplaceable and leaping. It can only be accumulated through time and experience, so we cannot and must not blindly use other people’s experience. method to conduct transactions. The importance of actual trading experience runs through every aspect of trading, but due to the differences in everyone's trading experience, there will be ever-changing combinations of transactions. Among the various possible combinations, we should look for our own one , use your own experience to form your own style.So as to be truly effective and stable in fighting in the investment market.
To maintain profitability in trading, you need to cultivate a deliberate practice method of probabilistic thinking...
Time Period
The first thing to ensure is that in your trading system, all entry and exit signals must be unified in one time period. carried out within the framework. For example, if you confirm support and resistance levels based on the 30-minute moving average chart, then your risk and return targets should also be calculated based on the 30-minute moving average chart. But trading within the same timeframe doesn't mean you can't use other timeframes to filter signals. For example, when doing trend trading, the longer the time period, the more obvious the trend, so the trend on the daily chart will be more obvious than the trend on the 30-minute chart. To determine the direction of the trend, you can refer to the trend direction on the daily chart. If the daily chart shows an upward trend, you can wait for a pullback to support on the 30-minute chart.
entry point
You must accurately define the entry criteria that are beneficial to you and try to eliminate subjective decisions or judgments. If the market matches your system, then you execute the trade. If the market doesn't fit your system, then don't trade. This process cannot be interrupted by external events or random factors.
Stop loss point
You must determine the maximum acceptable risk, and you must close your position immediately once you hit the bottom line. Similarly, no matter what the situation is, no matter what kind of trading system you choose, no unnecessary subjective judgment is allowed. That is to say, external fluctuations and random variables that have nothing to do with the trading system variables cannot interfere with the currently executing trading system. trading decisions.
Timely take profit
If you don't know how to deal with it objectively at first, then the best way is to divide your position into multiple parts (such as 3 or 4 parts), and then allocate the position according to the market fluctuations. For example, if you make 4 basis points on a trade, you will close one-third of your position as planned. The number of positions you close depends on the market you are trading and your current advantageous position. In addition, you have to consider another factor: a reasonable risk-reward ratio.
Formal practice: Accept risks and strictly implement transactions
After selecting the trading system, start formal training. Assume that we have to make at least 20 trades. This exercise requires you to know in advance what your risk is before 20 trades. You have to learn to accept the risks of practice calmly. The rules of
training are simple: trade exactly according to your system. Before you complete 20 transactions, you cannot be interfered by the outside world, nor can you change the system parameters. When you are familiar enough with your trading system and slowly overcome the emotions caused by the ups and downs of profits and losses in trading, then you already have the most basic and important psychological qualities for doing a good job in trading.
Once you believe that trading is a game of probability and develop such trading and thinking habits, concepts such as right and wrong, profit and loss will no longer seem so important.
The first stage: self-control of losses
Good stop loss ability determines whether you survive or not. For those who are new to the stock market, they basically do not have a strict stop-loss strategy. They even disdain the stop-loss system and are dubious. In his initial trading process, he made most of his profits by carrying it out. He could still make some money occasionally by doing random things. When he strictly stopped the loss, he made mistakes no matter what he did, so he did not believe in the stop loss. Strategy. Only when faced with countless big losses and the bloody facts did he know that he must have a strict stop-loss strategy, so he began to establish his own stop-loss system. However, my friend, building a stop-loss system and executing it are two different things. thing, so he will linger in pain next. . . . . Every time after the market closes, I regret why I didn’t strictly stop the loss. . . . . . He will think that he can succeed as long as he strictly stops the loss. Developing stop-loss execution ability is an anti-human process. When you have strict stop-loss execution ability, you will understand that stop loss is not as simple as setting a price and then cutting it off. This problem More discussion later. This process takes about half a year to a year.
The second stage: Construction of a consistent trading strategy
When you have a strict stop loss strategy and can execute it 100%, this is when you start to truly learn and explore trading technology.
At this time, you will fully understand one sentence: Trading is the art of probability. We cannot predict the trend of the market. Even if a top expert's ability to predict future market trends is not much better than that of a novice, all you have to do is to set a high probability of a rising market under X situation based on past experience. High, in case X, the probability of a downtrend is high. Remember, this is just a matter of probability. Probability is based on the principle of large numbers. It is only effective when you have enough transactions. The right and wrong of a single transaction account for 50%. Build your own order process based on the principle of large number probability. This process takes about half a year.
The third stage: the ability to handle profitable orders
Now you should understand that the decision of the trading result is not based on the judgment of the market, but "how much you lose when you make a mistake, and how much you make when you make a mistake." If you make a mistake, you can rely on your own stop loss system to solve the problem. What if you make a mistake? That is to rely on the ability to process profit orders. It takes a long time to develop this ability. This process takes approximately one to two years.
If you want to learn more trading mentality and trading system, you can follow the author’s WeChat public account: Guhaishengjing (ID: mk80085), for more financial information, experience skills and operating strategies, strong bull stock ideas, and get more The profit model of the banker’s main tactics!
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