The container shipping market is not prosperous in the peak season, and China has not seen a retaliatory shipment wave as expected after the lifting of the lockdown. The Shanghai export container freight index has fallen for four consecutive weeks and the decline has expanded, wi

The container shipping market is not prosperous during the peak season, and there has been no retaliatory shipment wave as expected after China lifted its lockdown. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has fallen for four consecutive weeks and the decline has expanded, with freight rates hitting a new low in the past year.

According to data released by the Shanghai Aviation Exchange on July 8, the latest SCFI index fell 59.4 points to 4143.87 points, a decrease of 1.41%, a new low since late July last year. Among them, the freight rates of the main routes including Far East to Europe, Mediterranean , US West and US East all declined. The US East and US West lines dropped significantly, only the Far East to South America continued to rise, and the Asia range lines remained flat.

Last week, the freight rate per FEU on the US East Line continued to fall by US$82 to US$9,602, a decrease of 0.84%, setting a new low since early July last year; the freight rate per FEU on the US West Line fell by US$218 to US$71,116, and the decline expanded to 2.97%. , and hit a new low since early December last year. The freight rate per TEU on the European line fell by US$34 to US$5,697, a decrease of 0.59%, reaching a new low since late May last year; the freight rate per TEU on the Mediterranean line fell by US$63 to US$6,355, a decrease of 0.98%.

At the same time, the freight rate per TEU from the Far East to South America increased by US$570 to US$8,954, an increase of 6.79%. In terms of the near ocean line, the freight rate from the Far East to Japan's Kansai and Japan's Kanto remained the same as the previous week; the Far East to Southeast Asia dropped by US$19 per TEU, and the Far East to South Korea increased by US$3.

Industry insiders pointed out that China did not have a retaliatory shipment wave as expected after the lifting of the blockade, causing freight rates to continue to fall. Coupled with weakening end demand in the United States and rising inventory levels, the peak season shipments may not be as strong as expected.

However, the industry still expects that if year-end procurement and seasonal demand emerge next, shipments are still expected to pick up and grow, thereby supporting freight rates in the traditional peak season in the third quarter; China's domestic sales market has recovered after the epidemic, and with the addition of China The U.S. trade war has caused the reorganization of the supply chain, forming China's "dual circulation economy" model of both production and consumption. Demand for domestic trade warehousing and transportation will continue to grow. In terms of profit for

, since the freight rates in the shipping industry have a delayed effect on revenue, it is expected that the price drop after the Spring Festival at the beginning of the year will gradually be reflected in the operating performance in the second to third quarters.

Looking forward to the market outlook, industry experts said that concerns about inflation and the pressure on the delivery of new ship orders are still the two major variables that freight rates need to face; as the gap between supply and demand in the market is expected to shrink, spot freight rates may face challenges after the fourth quarter. Greater risk.

experts said that the SCFI index has been falling since the beginning of 2022. Even though it has recently entered the peak season of traditional shipping demand and China has gradually lifted its lockdown, freight rates have not yet rebounded. Observing the waiting ships in the outer ports of the western United States, there were about 50 to 60 ships at the beginning of this year, and about 20 to 30 ships waiting at the end of the year. Recently, the number of waiting ships has remained at about 10 to 15. It is obvious that the port congestion situation continues to ease, and Shipping companies are also gradually reducing the capacity to prevent the decline in spot freight rates.

In addition, the labor contract at the US West Port Terminal has expired on July 1. The current negotiations between the two parties have not reached any agreement. However, both labor and management have previously promised to reach a labor agreement without causing any disruption to freight. Therefore, The market's concerns about the strike of dockworkers at West American ports, which will lead to renewed port congestion, can also be alleviated.