Liu Bowen
Investment consulting license number: Z0014252
Shipping/container capacity
[Important information]
1. Dry bulk freight rate: 7/12 BDI report 2013 points, month-on-month -3.3%, year-on-year -39.0%.
2. Container freight rate: SCFI container freight index for the week of July 9th was 4143.8, -1.4% month-on-month, +5.4% year-on-year, of which the Shanghai-US West container freight rate was 7,116 US dollars/FEU, -3.0% month-on-month, +41.6 year-on-year %; Shanghai-Europe container freight rate is 5,697 US dollars/TEU, -0.6% month-on-month and -15.5% year-on-year.
3. Shanghai Shipping Exchange : After seven consecutive months of rebound, the comprehensive punctuality index of global trunk routes continued to rebound slightly in June, closing at 30.20%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points from May; receiving and shipping services The punctuality index closed at 33.44%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points from May.
4. According to shipping industry news, out of consideration for India’s domestic production and the surge in fuel demand caused by peak electricity consumption in summer, the Indian government has decided to withdraw its previously announced restrictions on coal imports before its domestic coal production reaches 1 billion tons per year. plan of. In May 2022, according to Indian customs data, India's coal imports were approximately 21 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 10%. The increase in import volume is mainly attributed to the increase in non-coking coal imports, especially the significant increase in imports of thermal coal from Indonesia amid strong demand in the power industry.
[Market Outlook]
Containers, on the demand side, affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and global high inflation, demand-side pressure in European and American countries is gradually emerging. The recent economic recession is expected to strengthen, and short-term freight rates are still relatively weak. However, congestion at European ports has intensified recently, and container freight rates are still expected to rebound seasonally. However, due to the impact of rising inventories in Europe and the United States and declining demand, it is not appropriate to be optimistic about the rebound.
In terms of dry bulk cargo, the short-term dry bulk carrier shipping capacity cannot be significantly increased. On the demand side, the short-term demand for imported thermal coal from China remains sluggish, and demand from Indian buyers is sluggish with the arrival of the rainy season, putting short-term shipments under pressure. However, India said that out of consideration of India's domestic production and the surge in fuel demand caused by peak electricity consumption in summer, it will Before its domestic coal production reaches 1 billion tons per year, the Indian government decided to withdraw its earlier announced plan to restrict coal imports, which is expected to increase thermal coal imports. Coupled with the fact that Europe still has a demand for coal after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it will support coal. Shipping volume. In terms of iron ore, short-term shipping demand in Europe is weak due to the profit losses of steel mills and the reduction pressure brought by policy-based production restrictions in China in the second half of the year. However, weak infrastructure in China and Europe in the second half of the year is still expected to increase demand for iron ore. Provide some support. In terms of grain, global grain transportation demand is generally stable, and Ukraine's grain exports are still gradually recovering. In the short term, BDI freight rates are expected to stabilize and fluctuate. With the arrival of the peak dry bulk shipping season in the third quarter, dry bulk freight rates are expected to bottom out and rebound.
Soybean/meal
[External market situation]
Overnight the CBOT soybean index fell 2.04% to close at 1355.77 cents/bu, and the US soybean meal index fell 1.56% to close at 396.3 US dollars/short ton.
[Related information]
1.USDA July monthly supply and demand report: old crop crushing was reduced to 2.205 billion bushels (previous value 2.215 billion), driving the carryover inventory to increase by 01 million to 215 million bushels (previous value 205 million, expected 208 million); due to The planting area report in June significantly adjusted production, with new crop crushing reduced by 0.1 billion, exports reduced by 65 million, and carry-over stocks of 230 million (previous value of 280 million, expected 211 million), and the report was bearish;
2.COPA: May 2022 , Canadian rapeseed crushing volume was 591,780 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 16.27%; rapeseed oil production was 247,535 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15.75%; rapeseed meal production was 355,774 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15.6%;
3.ANEC: Brazil 7 Monthly soybean exports are expected to reach 7.956 million tons, compared with 6.536 million tons last week. Soybean meal exports are expected to reach 2.173 million tons, compared with last week's forecast of 1.926 million tons;
4. My agricultural products: In the 27th week of 2022, soybean inventories at major oil mills across the country increased, while soybean meal inventories and unexecuted contracts both declined.Among them, soybean stocks were 5.4964 million tons, an increase of 37,600 tons from last week, an increase of 0.69%, and a decrease of 1.2889 million tons, or 19%, from last year. Soybean meal stocks are 1.0477 million tons, a decrease of 26,700 tons, or 2.49%, from last week, and a decrease of 120,500 tons, or 10.32%, from last year.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: The monthly supply and demand report is negative and the weather model shows an increase in rainfall, which increases the short sentiment in the soybean market. The short-term real exchange rate depreciation makes South American discounts still mainly weak. , Domestic soybean meal has begun to gradually be destocked, but the spot is still relatively weak. Pay attention to the support of U.S. soybeans at 1,300 cents;
2. Arbitrage: M91 and RM91 are set, M-RM09 spread band is short ;
3. Options: Yesterday The bearish bull market spread has been prompted to close, and it is recommended to wait and see for the recent option positions (views are for reference only, not as a basis for buying and selling)
Oils sector
[Influence from external market]
Cbot The main price of US soybean oil fell 5.9% to 57.71 cents/pound; BMD The main price of crude palm oil fell by 2.8% to 4000 ringgit /ton.
[Important information]
1. Data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) on Tuesday showed: Malaysia's exports of palm oil in June were 1,193,861 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.26%. Malaysia's June palm oil inventory was 1,655,073 tons, a month-on-month increase. 8.76%. Malaysia’s palm oil output in June was 1,545,129 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.76%. Malaysia’s palm oil imports in June were 59,195 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.48%.
2. Data released by independent inspection company Amspec Agri show that Malaysia’s palm oil exports from July 1 to 10 were 308,290 tons, a decrease of 15.24% from the 363,732 tons exported in the same period in June.
3. Oil World: Severe labor shortages at plantations and processing delays led to lower-than-expected Malay palm oil production in June. Relative to early promises, the lack of immigration policy has made the labor shortage problem increasingly serious. At present, the serious labor shortage is difficult to solve quickly, and the production forecast for July-September has been lowered.
4. Oil World: Indonesian palm oil production is experiencing seasonal growth. The processing and crushing of oil palm fruit has slowed down. It is said that some plantations have slowed down their crushing due to excessive palm oil stocks.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: Indonesia may further significantly reduce export taxes . As crude oil prices weaken significantly, oil prices continue to return to decline. It is recommended to continue to hold short orders, with a p09 target of 7000-7500. In the medium term, the arrival of domestic palm oil in Hong Kong is less than expected, consumption has begun to pick up marginally, inventory accumulation is slow, and there is still the possibility of a rebound after August. Overall, the trend of short-term and medium-term shocks continues to be maintained.
2. Arbitrage: continue to hold the y91 positive set (structure transfer is not supported).
3. Options: Pay attention to the secondary point price strategy of oil. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for market entry)
Corn/Corn Starch
[Important Information]
1. In July, the corn planting area in the United States for 2022/2023 is expected to be 89.9 million acres. In June, it is expected to be 89.5 million acres, an increase of 40 from the previous month. Ten thousand acres; the U.S. corn harvest area for 2022/2023 in July is expected to be 81.9 million acres, compared with 81.7 million acres in June, an increase of 200,000 acres from the previous month; the U.S. corn yield for 2022/2023 in July is expected to be 177 bushels per acre, compared with the June estimate It is 177 bushels /acre, unchanged from the previous month; the U.S. corn production for 2022/2023 in July is expected to be 14.505 billion bushels, and the June forecast is 14.46 billion bushels, an increase of 45 million bushels from the previous month; the total U.S. corn supply for 2022/2023 in July is expected 16.04 billion bushels, compared with 15.97 billion bushels expected in June, an increase of 70 million bushels month-on-month; the total corn consumption in the United States in July 2022/2023 is expected to be 14.57 billion bushels, compared with 14.57 billion bushels expected in June, unchanged month-on-month; in July, the U.S. 2022/2023 corn consumption is expected to be 14.57 billion bushels, compared with 14.57 billion bushels expected in June, an increase of 70 million bushels month-on-month. The ending corn inventory in 2023 is expected to be 1.47 billion bushels, compared with 1.4 billion bushels in June, an increase of 70 million bushels month-on-month.
2. In July, the wheat planting area in the United States in 2022/2023 is expected to be 47.1 million acres, and in June it is expected to be 47.4 million acres, a decrease of 300,000 acres month-on-month; in July, the U.S. wheat harvest area in 2022/2023 is expected to be 37.6 million acres, in June It is expected to be 37.1 million acres, an increase of 500,000 acres from the previous month; the U.S. wheat yield for 2022/2023 in July is expected to be 47.3 bushels/acre, and in June it is expected to be 46.9 bushels/acre, an increase of 0.4 bushels/acre from the previous month; the U.S. 2022/2023 wheat yield in July is expected to be 46.9 bushels/acre, an increase of 0.4 bushels/acre from the previous month Wheat production is expected to be 1.781 billion bushels, compared with 1.737 billion bushels in June, an increase of 44 million bushels from the previous month; the total supply of wheat in the United States for 2022/2023 in July is expected to be 2.551 billion bushels, and is expected to be 2.512 billion bushels in June, an increase of 39 million bushels from the previous month. ; The total U.S. wheat consumption for 2022/2023 in July is expected to be 1.912 billion bushels, and the June forecast is 1.885 billion bushels, an increase of 27 million bushels from the previous month; The U.S. 2022/2023 wheat ending stocks in July are expected to be 639 million bushels, and the June forecast is 627 million bushels, an increase of 12 million bushels from the previous month. .
3. The Brazilian Grain Exporters Association (Anec) estimated on Tuesday that Brazil's corn exports in July will reach 6.25 million tons, higher than the 5.38 million tons estimated the previous week. If the forecast materializes, the forecast, which is based on port ship plans, would more than double the 3.04 million tons seen in the same period last year, when second-crop corn production was damaged by drought and frost. In the current season, accelerated corn planting is expected to allow the country's output to reach its second highest level on record, thereby increasing export supplies.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: USDA reported an increase in production expectations, mainly due to an increase in planting area, coupled with market concerns about the global economic recession, commodities generally fell, and US corn futures prices fell significantly. As the domestic surplus grain is gradually consumed, the spot price will gradually tighten. In addition, the current futures price has been relatively underestimated, but the weak external market has a greater drag. In the short term, we will pay attention to whether it can stabilize, and it is better to wait and see for the time being.
2. Arbitrage: Pay attention to the widening price difference of starch corn in 09.
3. Options: Sell c2209-P-2640 and sell c2209-C-2840. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
pigs
[Market information]
1. Spot quotation: The purchase price of pigs continued to rise yesterday evening. Among them, Northeast China is 22.8-23.2 yuan/kg, up 0.2-0.4 yuan/kg from yesterday; North China is 23.2-23.8 yuan/kg, up 0.8-1 yuan/kg from yesterday; East China is 23.2-24 yuan/kg, up from yesterday. 1.2 yuan/kg; South China 22.4-25.4 yuan/kg, the same as yesterday; Southwest 21.6-22.6 yuan/kg, up 0.4-0.8 yuan/kg from yesterday;
2. Piglet and sow prices: As of the week of July 7, The price of 15 kilogram piglets is 743 yuan per head, an increase of 99 yuan from last week, and the price of 50 kilogram sows is 1,829 yuan, an increase of 25 yuan from last week;
3.USDA: As of June 1, there are 72.5 million pigs on U.S. farms, a year-on-year increase of 743 yuan. It fell by 1%, a slight decrease from the previous month. Among the 72.5 million pigs, there are 66.4 million fattening pigs and 6.17 million pigs. Between March and May 2022, there were 32.9 million weaned piglets on U.S. farms, down 1% from the same period last year;
4. Pig Network : Wang Zuli, an expert on pig industry monitoring and early warning from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that recent pig prices The rapid rise is mainly due to the decline in pig prices in the two months before the Spring Festival, and the lack of price rebound near the Spring Festival. This abnormal phenomenon has caused farmers to be reluctant to sell during the Spring Festival. According to the practice in previous years, a large number of pigs will be slaughtered before the Spring Festival and less after the New Year. Therefore, the slaughter volume after the New Year this year is higher than in previous years.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: The domestic pig spot market price has maintained a high fluctuation trend recently, and free-range farmers and breeding companies are more willing to hold up the price and are reluctant to sell. Slaughtering companies have difficulty in continuing to lower prices. In addition, the slaughter weight of their own pigs is not high, which supports supply. Maintaining the tightening trend, spot prices are expected to remain strong in the near future. The short-term futures market still recommends buying at low prices;
2. Arbitrage: wait and see (the above views are for reference only and not used as a basis for market entry)
chicken
[Important information]
1. White-feathered broiler chickens: Shandong white-feathered broiler sheds last night The current mainstream quotation is about 4.70 yuan/jin, with an increase of 2-5 cents.It is expected that the price in front of the shed in Shandong will be stable tonight, with the mainstream quotation in front of the shed in Shandong being 4.70 yuan/jin. (My Agricultural Products Network)
2. White-feathered broiler chicks: On July 13th and July 14th, the quotation of white-feathered broiler chicks from Shandong Dachang was 2.80 yuan/bird, the transaction price of Shandong Zhongda Factory’s chicken chicks was 2.40-2.60 yuan/bird, and the small factory’s transaction price was 2.40-2.60 yuan/bird. The transaction price of chicks is 1.70-2.40 yuan/bird. (My Agricultural Products Network)
3. Segmented products: On July 12, the price of white feather segmented products was generally stable. The price of frozen large breasts in East China and North China was 10.7-11.0 yuan/kg, which was +0.2 yuan/kg month-on-month.
4. Zhuochuang Information : From July 1st to July 7th, Zhuochuang Information monitored a total of 50.228 million white-feather broiler sample enterprises emerging, with a month-on-month increase of 5.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.34%.
5. Zhuochuang Information: The average operating rate of key domestic white-feather broiler slaughtering enterprises in the week from July 1st to July 7th was 55.76%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.88 percentage points; the average frozen product storage capacity rate was 66.00%, a month-on-month decrease of 3.06 percentage points.
6. Zhuochuang Information: In June, 404 million feathered chickens were slaughtered, -5.2% year-on-year. From January to June 2022, the total slaughter volume of white-feathered broilers was 2.261 billion birds, -3.5% year-on-year.
[Market Outlook]
Farmers have recently become more enthusiastic about restocking. Last week, 50.22 million white-feathered broiler chicks emerged, a month-on-month increase of 5%. Since chicks can be restocked next week to avoid the dog days of summer, the willingness to restock is expected to continue to increase. , the chicks continue to rebound. On the consumer side, the epidemic situation has recently rebounded in many regions such as Anhui, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Lanzhou and other regions. With the superimposed school holidays, group meals and dining out channels are expected to be suppressed. In terms of raw chickens, although the sales of raw chickens increased in June, the overall level was still lower than the same period last year. In June, the slaughter volume of raw chickens was 404 million, -5.2% year-on-year. Subsequent sales are expected to gradually recover, but the overall level is still lower than last year. The short-term price of raw chickens is expected to fluctuate mainly, depending on the spread of the epidemic. In the second half of the year, supported by high feed costs and rising pig prices, raw chicken prices are expected to remain high.
eggs
[Important information]
1. Spot: The national egg price rose steadily yesterday, with the average price in the main production areas being 4.49 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas being 4.64 Yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous trading day. Today, the national egg price is mainly stable, and the Beijing market price remains stable. The mainstream wholesale price of Shimen, Xinfadi, , Huilongguan and other mainstream prices is 197 yuan/44 pounds, which is the same as yesterday's price. As of 7 o'clock in the morning, a total of 6 trucks have arrived on the Great Ocean Road. , the arrival is normal, the shipment is normal, the mainstream wholesale price is 195-200 yuan/44 pounds, which is basically the same as yesterday’s price. Today, the price of eggs in Northeast Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang is stable; the mainstream price in Shandong is stable, the price in Henan is stable, the price in Shanxi, Hebei is stable, the price in Hubei is stable, the price in Jiangsu and Anhui is stable, the local egg price is high and low, and the egg price continues The concussion and consolidation are strong, and the movement of goods is normal.
2. Zhuochuang data: The number of laying hens in the country in June 2022 was 1.181 billion, an increase of 0.25% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 0.25%, in line with expectations. In June, the monthly emergence of layer hen seedlings from sample companies monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for 50% of the country) was 35.98 million birds, a decrease of 10.7% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%.
3. According to Zhuochuang data: the number of laying hens eliminated in the country's main production areas in the week of July 8 was 14.42 million, a decrease of 5.5% from last week. According to Zhuochuang Information's monitoring statistics on the age of culled chickens in key production areas across the country, the average age of culled chickens in the week of July 7 was 503 days, 1 day more than the previous week.
4. According to Zhuochuang data: Egg sales in representative sales areas nationwide in the week of July 7 were 7504.6 tons, an increase of 3.2% from last week.
5. According to Zhuochuang data: In the week of July 7, both production link inventory and circulation relief inventory decreased. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.39 days, a decrease of 0.07 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 0.88 days. A decrease of 0.06 days compared with the previous week.
6. Yesterday, the price of culled chickens in the main production areas across the country was mainly stable. The average price in the main production areas of Tao chicken was 6.25 yuan/jin, which was 0.01 yuan/jin higher than the price on the previous trading day.
[Operation Suggestions]
1. Unilateral: On the egg supply side, the number of eggs in production was still relatively low in June. The number of eggs continued to recover but at a slow pace. However, the egg production rate dropped due to hot weather. Overall, the egg supply was average. On the demand side, the peak season consumption of and Mid-Autumn Festival will begin in July, and catering and tourism consumption will increase after the epidemic prevention and control is relaxed. Recently, the spot price of eggs has increased significantly. The price of pork has risen sharply recently, and the price of Taobao chicken has also increased. It is expected that the substitute role of eggs will increase, and stocking for the peak consumption season will begin, and the spot price of eggs will continue to rise. In terms of futures, commodities have generally fallen recently, and the cost of feed in market transactions has been reduced. The September contract has dropped to a minimum of around 4300. This price has a strong support for the lower stock expected to be in the future. However, the spot price of eggs has recently begun to rise, coupled with the sharp rise in pork prices. To drive egg consumption, it is recommended to consider opening long positions on dips.
2. Arbitrage: From a statistical perspective, we can consider long September and short November. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for market entry)
white sugar
[Important information]
1. Data released by the Brazilian Sugar Cane Industry Association (Unica) on Tuesday showed that in the second half of June, the sugarcane crushing volume in central and southern Brazil was lower than market expectations. Sugar production fell sharply from the same period last year as sugar mills bet on ethanol. Unica data shows that in the second half of June, Brazil's sugarcane crushing volume totaled 41.87 million tons, a decrease of 7.9% from the same period last year; Analysts surveyed by S&P Global Commodity Insights had previously expected the crushing volume to hit 4,263 million tons. Thousands of tons. The report shows that in the second half of June, sugar production in the central and southern production areas was 2.48 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.98%, including a 3.9% decrease in ethanol production produced from corn to 2.02 billion liters. According to a survey by S&P Global Commodities, analysts predict that sugar production will be 2.53 million tons, and ethanol production produced from sugar cane will be 1.98 billion liters.
2. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Tuesday raised its forecast for U.S. sugar imports in 2022/23 by nearly 500,000 short tons, but did not specify where the sugar will come from. In its monthly supply and demand report, the USDA estimated that the United States will import 3.5 million short tons of sugar in the new year starting in October, up from the 3 million short tons estimated in June. This adjustment makes the market supply situation less difficult. In last month's report, the inventory/use ratio was just 7.6%, while a level of 13.5 was considered adequate supply. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on July 12, the July supply and demand report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Tuesday showed that the U.S. sugar inventory/use ratio in 2022/23 is estimated to be 12.4%, lower than the 14.0% in 2021/22.
3.12 The spot quotation continued to be strong, with only Fujian Sugar slightly lowering it by 10 yuan/ton. The market trading atmosphere was tepid, and the overall spot transaction was average.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: The market is worried about the global economic recession and commodities have generally fallen. However, Brazil's sugar production is lower than expected and provides positive support. raw sugar has fallen slightly. Domestic futures prices have continued to adjust, and the late price has been significantly discounted to the spot price. As the domestic temperature rises, consumption will gradually increase, and the later spot price is expected to gradually strengthen. Pay attention to whether Zhengtang can stabilize and rebound in the near future.
2. Arbitrage: Pay attention to Baitang 91 regular set.
3. Options: Sell SR209-P-5900. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for market entry)
cotton - cotton yarn
[External disk impact]
Overnight ICE US cotton main contract fell to the limit , and the December contract fell 4.09 cents/pound (-4.31%) to 90.84 cents /pound.
[Important information]
1. According to the "Announcement on the arrival of the first batch of central reserve cotton in 2022", the maximum price of the incoming bidding (delivery price) is dynamically determined based on the domestic cotton spot price on the previous working day, and is set to start /Stop price, the rotation will be started when the domestic cotton spot price on the current working day is lower than 18,600 yuan/ton (inclusive), and the rotation will be stopped when it is higher than 18,600 yuan/ton. According to the rotation price calculation formula: on July 13, the maximum price for the rotation bidding is 17,550 yuan/ton, which meets the conditions for the start of the rotation.
2. According to the latest USDA global cotton supply and demand report, in July USDA lowered the 2022/23 US cotton production by 217,000 tons to 3.375 million tons. In the end, global cotton production was lowered by 262,000 tons to 26.141 million tons; in terms of consumption, China lowered its forecast by 109,000 tons. to 8.165 million tons, India lowered it by 109,000 tons to 5.443 million tons, and global cotton consumption dropped by 351,000 tons to 26.111 million tons; in terms of ending stocks, China increased it by 153,000 tons to 8.127 million tons, and India increased it by 196,000 tons to 1.837 million tons. , the United States decreased by 108,000 tons to 523,000 tons, and global cotton inventories were increased by 324,000 tons to 18.346 million tons.
html In July, the USDA lowered the Brazilian cotton production in 2021/22 by 87,000 tons to 2.678 million tons. In the end, global cotton production was lowered by 157,000 tons to 25.304 million tons. In terms of consumption, China lowered the price by 218,000 tons to 8.056 million tons, and global cotton consumption was lowered by 41.3%. 10,000 tons to 26.082 million tons; in terms of ending stocks, China increased 153,000 tons to 8.138 million tons, and global cotton stocks increased 238,000 tons to 18.297 million tons.
3. As of the week of July 9, the overall harvest progress of Brazilian (98.5%) cotton was 16.3%, the harvest progress of the previous week was 10.9%, and the harvest progress of the same period last year was 17.8%, 1.5 percentage points slower than the same period last year.
[Operation suggestions]
1. Unilateral: The current cotton spot price has fallen to a low price. Domestic cotton prices are significantly lower than abroad, but orders from downstream textile mills are still few. The startup rate of textile companies is low, and the profits of textile companies are hard to see and touch. Without quantitative support, it is difficult for the downstream to form purchasing power. Consumption is weaker than expected, and the Fed's interest rate hike expectations are strong. The general trend of commodities is weakening. It is expected that Zheng Zheng The general trend of cotton will also maintain a volatile and weak trend, and it is recommended to open short positions on rallies. Today is the first day of reserve cotton rotation. Pay attention to the transaction situation of reserve cotton. The general trend of cotton yarn is the same as that of cotton.
2. Arbitrage: The internal arbitrage considers short US market and long Zheng cotton.
3. Options: In the short term, it is recommended to consider buying put options on and . (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for market entry)
peanuts
[Important information]
The domestic peanut market was relatively strong yesterday. Market shipments have improved slightly compared with the previous period. The demand for replenishment has increased in the near future. The quotation of finished rice is relatively strong, and traders are obviously willing to raise prices. Looking at different production areas, the price of 308 rice in Northeast production areas is 4.75-4.80 yuan/jin, and some good products are quoted at 4.90 yuan/jin. The price of currency rice in the Baisha production area in Henan is 4.50-4.70 yuan/catty, and the price of large peanuts is 4.45-4.60 yuan/catty. The transaction price depends on the quality; the price of currency rice in the Shandong production area is 4.30-4.50 yuan/catty. The arrival volume of oil plants remains at a low level. The transaction price of Luhua currency rice is 8,600-9,000 yuan/ton. At Luhua factory, only Laiyang and Fuyu factories are started. The rest of the factories have been shut down and will remain shut down for the time being. Continuously collecting status. Yihai Kerry has been completely stopped.
peanut oil: The domestic peanut oil market is running weakly, and the bean rice dumplings have rebounded slightly, but the negative impact still exists. At present, peanut oil
inquiries are rare, and the downstream market is still mainly wait-and-see, with very few new transactions. Most oil plants are executing early orders, but delivery of early orders is slow. In terms of price, the current domestic average price of first-grade ordinary peanut oil is 17,000 yuan/ton; the market quotations of small-pressed strong-flavor peanut oil vary, with the mainstream quotation being 19,000 yuan/ton.
[Operational Suggestions]
Unilateral: Oil and crude oil fell sharply last night. Although the fundamentals of peanuts are relatively independent, due to the influence of emotions and quantitative funds, peanut may follow the oil price after opening . The recent spot price is strong, and it is safe to rise. margin. It is recommended to gradually build a position and go long 01 contract in the 9600-9800 range after the oil stabilizes.
month difference: The 10 contract is the delivery of old peanuts, causing futures to return to the spot. In view of the price difference between old and new peanuts, the 10-1 price difference may go lower. It is currently believed that the monthly difference is in a volatile range, and the -300 point does not have the motivation to continue falling, and will be reset when the correction is between -100-200.
period current strategy: The basis difference is -400, there is no profit margin after removing the delivery cost, but there is still room for growth in the peanut market, and you can choose a higher point to operate. Stay on the sidelines for now.
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