As the military conflict in Ukraine evolved into a war of attrition, Ukraine's demand for conventional weapons and artillery shells increased day by day, which began to make the West's arsenal scarce. Because the reduction in investment in military industry in the previous decades has left NATO and EU countries without the production capacity to replenish key weapons in a timely manner.
As early as May, when Washington ordered 1,300 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles from the military industry to make up for the shortfall caused by previous weapons aid to Ukraine, the CEO of Raytheon , which manufactured these missiles , responded: "This "It will take us a while."
Meanwhile, Paris reduced its total inventory of high-tech artillery by a quarter after aiding Kiev with 18 Caesar self-propelled howitzers. It will take the French company Nexter about 18 months to build new guns to replenish the inventory.
The war in Ukraine has exposed the paucity of Western defense reserves—especially supplies that have little economic value but are vital, such as artillery shells that have been the mainstay of the battle. A lack of production capacity, labor shortages and supply chain disruptions - especially for computer chips - mean it will take a long time for Western countries to fill the gap.
According to defense officials and analysts, the shortage of military used supplies exposes the West's complacency about potential threats since the end of the Cold War and is now evidenced by a desire to support Ukraine with military support. They added that the fascination with high-tech weaponry and precision manufacturing overshadowed the importance of maintaining stocks of basic equipment. In recent decades, the West has devoted too much energy to high-tech technologies such as , artificial intelligence, , and combat robots. But they did not expect that in a real war, when dealing with powerful opponents, high-tech weapons are not the most important, but sustained firepower advantage is the most fundamental.
Jamie Shea, former director of policy planning at NATO, said: "Ukraine tells us that wars are still won by classic elements such as artillery, ground forces and occupation."
The scarcity of sustained firepower may now be affecting the West The ability to control the war in Kiev. U.S. procurement expert Alex Vershinin said that the number of 155mm artillery shells produced by the United States every year can only be used in Ukraine in less than two weeks before being exhausted. He said the conflict marked "the return of industrial warfare."
Heining said: "This is like the huge artillery crisis of World War I . In 1915, due to the heavy use of artillery in trench warfare , the British inventory was exhausted. This shortage caused a large number of British casualties. When the then prime minister resigned.
British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace also said that Western countries would be difficult to launch a protracted war comparable to Russia's attack on Ukraine because ammunition stocks are simply "not enough to deal with the threats we face." ". In a simulated war game last year, Britain's stockpile of ammunition was exhausted after eight days.
Of course, no one believes that the West will deplete its basic weapons by supplying Ukraine. Even so, NATO Most of the spending has been on advanced systems, such as fighter jets; but Western countries have not provided Ukraine with these high-tech air weapons. Over the past 20 years, most of the West's defense objectives have been aimed at combating the Middle East. counterinsurgency weapons, rather than preparing for a showdown between heavy tanks and artillery like the one seen on the battlefields of Ukraine
Decades of emphasis on precision manufacturing, financial efficiency, and industrial consolidation have kept the West in basic weapons. The supply problem is compounded by a phenomenon that goes against the grain of European and American military planners keen to maintain stocks of expensive weapons.
In the UK, low inventories have meant it has recently had to buy howitzers from third parties to send to Ukraine. , it is reported that the order was taken by a private Belgian dealer.In the United States, the Pentagon only works with five major defense contractors. In the 1990s, the number was 51.
A Western defense consultant said: "For a long time, it has been generally believed that the West will never fight another industrial war. Therefore, few countries can maintain the ability to improve domestic production of key weapons and equipment."
Everything is ignored, Western arms manufacturers are now scrambling to secure supplies of scarce components and materials to build weapons and ammunition that until recently were in short supply. According to Raytheon, some of the Stinger missile's electronic components were last mass-produced 20 years ago. Many of these components are no longer produced, and repurchasing them is time-consuming and expensive.
Alex Cresswell, CEO of Thales UK, which produces anti-tank NLAW missiles, said, "The UK has been depleting its weapons inventory, but it has not invested enough in production."
As for Kiev's request Lockheed Martin's guided multiple rocket launcher system The United States has now consumed about one-third of its total inventory of 20,000 to 25,000 guided rockets.
There are also more troubling issues. Mark Cancian, a former Pentagon official who works at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, said that these depleted ammunition stocks cannot be easily replaced with older versions because the stocks of ammunition that were once equipped for the big war are used. Banned cluster warheads. Therefore, the only way to make up for the inventory is to re-produce.
Except NATO and EU countries. Western defense analysts believe that Russia is also facing weapons supply problems. According to reports, Russian defense manufacturer Ural Rolling Stock Plant is working in three shifts to renovate old tanks. A large storage depot located in Belarus is partially replenishing ammunition supplies.
Mark Galeotti, a Russian expert based in the UK, also mentioned that the Russian troops stationed in Ukraine have a new commander-in-chief, with former Deputy Defense Minister General Gennady Zhidko holding this important position. The arrival of Zhedko will strengthen the voice of the Russian army, because the Russian army needs strong support to obtain sufficient military budget to carry out special military operations.
Western military experts have been paying attention to the Ukrainian conflict in order to seek new insights from this war on the nature of modern warfare. Jack Watling, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, said the "first lesson" we have learned so far is the importance of maintaining a basic inventory of weapons.
Watling said: "This is nothing new, but we have ignored this problem for a long time. Cheap ammunition that can be used on a large scale is absolutely crucial to a war. Western countries need to be more awake and stop chasing Too refined military technology”
