[School Viewpoint]: As the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data approaches, the market is paying more and more attention to it. After all, the U.S. government has proactively admitted before that the first task is to eliminate inflation, and then to boost it. Econo

[School View]:

As the release of the US Consumer Price Index CPI data approaches, the market is paying more and more attention to this. After all, the US government has also taken the initiative to admit that the first task is to eliminate inflation, and then It is to boost the economy... From this statement, it is obvious that inflation has evolved into a factor that directly affects the decision-making of the US government. At the same time, it is also very harmful to the US economy. After all, this will directly affect the public's view of the Biden administration. attitude, and judging from recent polls, it seems that the people are complaining a lot and there are more and more opposition voices. Therefore, the Biden administration must be under great pressure and will also think of various ways to solve the problem of inflation.

However, is the domestic inflation in the United States so easy to solve? Since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in the United States in 2020, in order to save the economy, the Trump government has directly used helicopters to disperse money. From that moment on, domestic inflation in the United States has laid the groundwork. Over time, coupled with the Some of the previous problems and hidden mines in the U.S. economy began to explode one by one, which destined the explosive development of domestic inflation in the United States, and even some out-of-control conditions.

Of course, as the Federal Reserve continues to significantly raise interest rates , domestic inflation in the United States will slowly be brought under control, but before the rate hike reaches neutrality, domestic inflation in the United States will still be out of control. When faced with this situation , it will be very interesting to watch how the U.S. government will deal with it:

Because during yesterday’s U.S. trading session, a fake report suddenly leaked out of the market. The fake report stated that the U.S. CPI without seasonally adjusted growth in June was as high as 10.2% year-on-year. %, the market suddenly exploded, but then the U.S. Department of Labor came out to evade the rumor, saying that the report was false, and the market recovered.

Based on the incident itself, a fake report was leaked on the eve of the release of the CPI report, which itself seems very strange. If there is no purpose behind it, I guess no one will believe it. The school believes that this may be intentional to test market sentiment - although the Federal Reserve has repeatedly taken interest rate hikes to curb inflation, the global supply chain costs have not improved much, so this time the US CPI data is very likely to Higher than the previous value. If this is true, it is certain that the release of CPI data will definitely cause a huge reaction or even collapse in the market. Such a situation must be something the US government does not want to see and endure; therefore, a false report is released in advance To deliberately stimulate the market, and then come out to avoid rumors and restore sentiment. During this period, market panic can be released to a certain extent. When the CPI data is actually released, even if the actual value is higher than the previous value, it is not false. If the data is so exaggerated, then after the previous experience, market sentiment may be relatively stable and not out of control.

Therefore, when the CPI data is released tonight, the market will definitely move. However, due to the early release of some risk factors, the market performance may be more stable, but it is still indispensable. Therefore, there are still certain risks in today's trading, and everyone should be careful. .

At the operational level, judging from the situation, the momentum and demand for the continued upward movement of the U.S. dollar index is still relatively urgent. Especially after the release of the U.S. CPI data, the U.S. dollar index is still more likely to pull up, but attention must also be paid to beware of market surprises. Sweep the market, after all, there are too many moths nowadays, so it is always right to be cautious!

[Trading Strategy]:

Euro/USD:

To sum up, we need to beware of a sweep in the U.S. dollar index tonight, and then slowly enter a rising cycle. Corresponding to European and American currencies, we can look for opportunities to sell short on rallies, . The following suggestions are given based on the market, and you can refer to the operation as appropriate. Light position:

EUR/USD

AUD/USD:

Today’s second currency pair operation, you can choose Australian and American transactions.The operation idea is mainly short selling on rallies, and the following suggestions are given for reference operations as appropriate. Light position:

AUD/USD

Gold:

As far as gold is concerned, the overall trend is still to fall, but you need to be careful tonight, the market suddenly reverses upward, test it out Then slowly fall after the pressure. Judging from the price, 1732 and 1737 are the two most worthy of attention. If you want to operate, consider making a choice between these two places. However, due to the high risk tonight and the large market elasticity, it is not conducive to early layout, so we can only wait and see. It is recommended that you wait until the situation becomes clear before making plans!

XAU/USD