A list of major financial events in the week from July 11th to July 15th. The following are all Beijing time:
There are many market highlights next week: China will announce June financial credit data, second quarter GDP, 70 large and medium-sized cities Blockbuster data such as residential sales prices and industrial added value above designated size; U.S. June CPI data and U.S. stock second-quarter earnings season may become the two major catalysts for market fluctuations in the coming week; OPEC will release its monthly crude oil market report next Tuesday .
Central Bank Dynamics
Federal Reserve The 2022 FOMC voting committee and St. Louis Fed Chairman Bullard will speak on the economic outlook on Friday. Bullard has publicly expressed support for a July interest rate hike of to by basis points. As of press time, CME Group's federal funds futures market pricing tool FedWatch tool shows that the market expects a 92.4% chance of a 75 basis point interest rate hike in July, and a 6.4% expectation of a 100 basis point interest rate hike.
European Central Bank Governing Council member Nagel gave a speech, and Villeroy will give a speech next week. The euro fell to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar since 2002 as investors trimmed their bets on the European Central Bank raising interest rates due to rising recession risks. After France's service sector PMI was revised down on Tuesday, money markets trimmed their bets on how much the European Central Bank would raise interest rates this year to less than 140 basis points, down from more than 190 basis points three weeks ago. ECB Governing Council member Holzman said yesterday that the ECB should raise interest rates by 50 basis points in July and seek to raise interest rates by a total of 125 basis points by September.
In terms of other central banks, in order to curb high inflation, the global Bank of Canada has become increasingly tough. Economists predict that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates by 75 basis points next Friday. In addition, New Zealand and the Bank of Korea are expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points each next week. The focus next week will still be on the speed and path of interest rate hikes by major central banks in the coming months.
In terms of economic data
China will release financial credit data for June next Monday; next Friday it will release second quarter GDP, residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, urban fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods, and industries above designated size. Added value and other important data.
The U.S. June CPI year-on-year release next Wednesday will become the biggest uncertain factor affecting market trends. Bloomberg data shows that economists expect the CPI to rise to 8.8% year-on-year in June, higher than the 8.6% year-on-year increase in May, and may hit a new high in more than 40 years. Economists Yelena Shulyatyeva and Andrew Husby expect surging gasoline prices to push overall CPI to a new high in June.
Judging from the non-farm payrolls report released on Friday, non-farm employment growth in June far exceeded expectations, and wages also grew faster than expected. The U.S. labor market remains strong, alleviating some recent market concerns about economic recession. The Federal Reserve may strengthen its Hawkish attitude.
If the CPI data continues to rise next week, it means that the inflation situation will become more severe. At that time, the Federal Reserve must take more measures to cool down the economy, which will consolidate the expectation of a 75 basis point interest rate hike in July and increase expectations for future interest rate hikes. , then U.S. stocks will be further pressured by the expectation of interest rate hike .
Market aspects
Starting next week, the disclosure of semi-annual reports of A-share listed companies will be officially launched. The first batch of disclosure reports include Shanghai-listed company Meihua Biotech, Shenzhen-listed companies Wohua Pharmaceutical , and Mike Biotech . CITIC Construction Investment predicts that the second-quarter performance of industries such as photovoltaics, semiconductors, military industry, medicine, coal, and shipping will increase or exceed expectations; the second-quarter performance of industries such as breeding, steel, hotels, restaurants, aviation, and automobiles will be sluggish or Not as good as expected.
A shares will usher in the peak period of lifting the ban next week. Wind data statistics show that from July 11 to July 15, a total of 57 companies' restricted stocks were gradually lifted from the ban, with a total of 2.317 billion shares released. Calculated based on the closing price on July 8, the market value of the restricted stocks was 49.708 billion yuan. Calculated based on the closing price on July 8, the top three companies in terms of market value after the release of the ban are: BGI (10.34 billion yuan), Three Squirrels (3.982 billion yuan), and Aerospace Development (3.71 billion yuan).Judging from the number of unlocked stocks of stocks and , the top three stocks with the highest number of unlocked stocks are: Anhui Electric Power (476 million shares), Aerospace Development (317 million shares), and Su Yanjingshen (213 million shares).
In addition, 15 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will expire next week in the People's Bank of China open market, of which 3 billion yuan will expire from Monday to Friday. It is worth noting that 100 billion yuan of MLF will expire on July 15. At that time, you need to pay attention to changes in the scale of central bank operations and interest rates.
Domestic oil prices will open a new round of price adjustment window at 24:00 on July 12. industry insiders predict that with the recent shock and decline in international oil prices, domestic oil prices are expected to experience a second consecutive decline. This time the decline is expected to be 0.2 yuan per liter, which is 10 yuan cheaper per full tank (50 liters) of oil.
Real estate debt. Following March, real estate companies will once again usher in a debt repayment climax in July. According to previous statistics from DM Research, next week R&F Group and Longfor Group will each have a U.S. dollar real estate bond due. Qi Sheng, chief fixed income analyst at Oriental Securities Research Institute, pointed out that the current credit risk in the real estate industry is still in a period of intensive exposure, and investors should not take it lightly.
US stocks will usher in the second quarter earnings season starting next week. Next Thursday, Wall Street major banks Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan will release their interim reports, and chip giant TSMC will disclose its second-quarter financial results; next Friday, major banks such as BlackRock and Citigroup will announce their second-quarter results. financial report. In terms of other companies, PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines will release interim reports on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.
Moscow Exchange announced that due to large customer demand, Moscow Exchange will resume evening futures trading from July 12. Moscow Exchange is a member of the World Federation of Exchanges and the largest exchange group in Russia.
Important Conference
Automobile: The 19th China (Changchun) International Automobile Expo will be held from July 15th to 24th at Changchun International Convention and Exhibition Center .
Tourism: The 2022 Asia Marine Tourism Development Conference will be held on July 13 in Ningbo .
Intellectual Property: The first "Boao Forum for Asia Innovation and Intellectual Property Protection Conference" will be held in Guangzhou from July 12th to 13th.
Breaking events:
Oil: According to Xinhua News Agency , Biden is scheduled to visit Israel, the Palestinian West Bank and Saudi Arabia from July 13 to 16, and plans to meet with Israeli and Palestinian leaders and Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. This will be Biden's first trip to the Middle East in a year and a half since taking office. According to the US media, in the face of severe domestic inflation and intensifying pressure on mid-term elections, Biden's trip will focus on persuading Saudi Arabia and other Gulf oil-producing countries to significantly increase production while seeking to repair relations with regional allies.
It is worth noting that OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo, who had refused to increase oil production several times, died on the evening of July 5. The cause of death was unknown. The market is worried that without Barkin acting as the "glue" for oil-producing countries, OPEC may not be able to withstand Western demands for production expansion.
OPEC will release its monthly crude oil market report next Tuesday. Some analysts predict that OPEC's implementation of increasing crude oil production may not change much. This report can focus on OPEC's outlook for oil prices.
Japan: According to CCTV news reports, the funeral of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe , who was shot and killed on the 8th, will be held on the 12th local time.
Indonesia:The Indonesian General Administration of Foreign Trade will announce relevant notices on wheat flour export policies on the 12th. In May this year, the agency revised its export policy for wheat , classifying wheat exports into the "prohibited" category. The Indian government said at the time that the move was for overall food security.
Economic data
Monday (July 11), China's M0, M1, M2 in June; China's new RMB loans in June; China's June social financing scale (to be determined);
Tuesday (July 12), Euro zone ZEW economic sentiment index in July; NFIB small business confidence index in the United States in June;
Wednesday (July 13), China's June trade balance; U.S. CPI in June; U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week to July 8; Germany's June adjusted CPI year-on-year; France's June CPI;
On Thursday (July 14), the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States in the week to July 9; The United States in June PPI year-on-year; The United States in the week to July 8 EIA natural gas inventory;
Friday (July 15), China's second quarter GDP, national real estate development investment from January to June, urban fixed asset investment from January to June year-on-year, total retail sales of consumer goods from January to June year-on-year, Year-on-year added value of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to June, monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; US July University of Michigan consumer confidence index.
Central Bank News
On Monday (July 11), Bank of England Governor Bailey gave a testimony in Parliament on financial stability issues;
On Tuesday (July 12), Bank of England Governor Bailey gave a speech on the economic situation; Europe Central Bank Governing Council Member Nagel delivered a speech; European Central Bank Governing Council Member Villeroy delivered a speech; U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen visited Tokyo on the eve of the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting;
Wednesday (July 13), The Federal Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of Korea announced interest rate decisions; 2024 FOMC voting committee and Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin delivered a speech; Bank of England Governor Bailey delivered a speech at the official forum of monetary and financial institutions;
Thursday (7 July 14), Federal Reserve Governor Waller spoke on the U.S. economic outlook; the Federal Reserve announced the economic conditions Beige Book ;
On Friday (July 15), the 2022 FOMC voting committee and St. Louis Fed Chairman Bullard spoke on the Prospect speaks.
New Opportunities
There will be 7 new A-share subscriptions next week, namely Guobo Electronics (computer, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing), Longda Co., Ltd., Chuhuan Technology, Lixin Energy, Yifang Biotech, and Xtest Testing ; There are 2 stocks listed, namely smart cube and Chenguang Cable.
In addition, Hong Kong stocks will have 9 companies listed next week, namely Reading Lang , Zhongkang Holdings, MINISO , Noah Holdings-S, Huzhou Gas, Tianqi Lithium , Deutsche Bank Tianxia, minimally invasive brain science, and Bowei wisdom.
Miniso, the world’s largest “10-yuan store”, will be launched on the Hong Kong stock market next Wednesday. 's financial report shows that the company's revenue growth has been sluggish in recent years, and its losses have been increasing year by year. From fiscal year 2019 to fiscal year 2021, Miniso’s revenue was 9.395 billion yuan, 8.979 billion yuan, and 9.072 billion yuan respectively, and its net profits were -294 million yuan, -260 million yuan, and -1.429 billion yuan respectively.
Tianqi Lithium will also start trading on the Hong Kong stock market on Wednesday. The final price of the issuance is HK$82 per share. plans to raise HK$13.4 billion, becoming the largest IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this year.
New Funds
There will be 24 new funds (combined statistics of Class A and Class C) next week. There are 7 closed-end funds and partial stock hybrid funds. There are 65 passive index funds html and long-term bonds. There are 3 fund types and 2 general stock funds.
Important company financial reports
On Tuesday (July 12), PepsiCo reported an interim report;
On Wednesday (July 13), Delta Air Lines reported an interim report;
On Thursday (July 14), Morgan Stanley reported an interim report, JPMorgan Chase's interim report, TSMC's second quarter financial report;
Friday (July 15), BlackRock's second quarter financial report, Citibank's second quarter financial report.
This article comes from Wall Street News, welcome to download the APP to view more
