What determines the success or failure of a transaction is not technology but strategy
Among the few traders who make money in the market, they are basically masters and professionals. The thought-provoking question is that there is a well-known phenomenon in both futures and the stock market: ordinary traders are much more accurate in judging market trends than experts and professionals, which creates a trading paradox.
What does this mean? It means that "efforts lie outside poetry". It is not necessarily technical analysis that determines trading profits and losses, at least the core determining factor is not technical analysis.
In the market, 98% believe in technology, 2% pursue fund management and are well versed in trading strategies, and only 0.3% make money. Obviously, through the above simple and simple analysis, it is difficult or even impossible to make money just by believing in and being proficient in technical analysis.
The truth revealed by this simple and crude logic is something that ordinary traders who are immersed in technical analysis and too naive to extricate themselves cannot recognize and dare not face.
Both the long and short sides believe in the same technical analysis, but the final situation is completely different between ice and fire, either anxious like a see-saw, or overturning like a roller coaster, which shows that the decisive factor in the transaction is not technical analysis, but Trading strategies, fund management, risk control, trading concepts, trading psychology, etc. besides technical analysis. In a war, if the red and blue armies use the same weapon, and one party wins a great victory and the other loses miserably, it can only be said that it is not the weapon that determines the outcome of the war, but the strategy and tactics, the military ability of the commander, and the logistics of supplies. ensure.
moving average is a line connecting the average stock prices within a period of time. It represents not only the cost of the market, but also the trend of the market. In technical analysis, the principle of market cost is very important. It is the basis for the generation of trends. The reason why the trend in the market can be maintained is because of the driving force of market cost.
moving average line is formed on the basis of trading volume combined with trading volume. Trading volume is used to reflect the specific conditions of average trading in the market over a period of time. From the reference value of the moving average line indicator, we can judge that in this period The market's supply and demand relationship and the disparity in volume between buyers and sellers within a certain period of time are also a reference factor for investors' future market development. Since there are no specific rules to follow in intraday trading volume, jump changes often occur. Therefore, people combine the average trading volume with the moving average, which is the origin of average volume. It is a foreign exchange technical indicator for judging trading trends.
MACD indicator mainly uses two long and short-term smoothing averages to calculate both difference between them. This indicator can remove the false signals that often appear in moving averages, while retaining the advantages of moving averages. Since the MACD indicator is not highly sensitive to price changes and is a medium- and long-term indicator, it is not applicable in consolidation markets. Advantages of the
MACD indicator: You can determine whether the current market situation is long or short to avoid reverse operations. After confirming the confirmation, adopt the corresponding buying and selling strategy to reduce unnecessary frequent entry and exit.
The above chart reminds us that when MACD shows that the stock is in a long market, a short retracement does not affect the upward trend of the midline of the stock price. When DIF and MACD are both greater than 0 (that is, graphically represented as they are above the zero line) and moving upward, it means that the stock market is in bull market and you can buy or hold shares.
[Moving average + moving average line + MACD three-line golden cross stock selection skills]
The market significance of the bottom of the three golden crosses is: the stock price loses popularity after a long-term decline, and when there is no way to fall, it begins to fluctuate at the bottom. The main players gradually opened positions, and the stock price finally began to rise. The initial rise in the stock price may be extremely slow, or it may be latent and accumulated, but no matter what, it will eventually cause the bottom of the stock price to rise and the upward trend to rise. When trading volume continues to increase and push the stock price upward, the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, the 5-day and 10-day moving average lines and MACD will naturally undergo a golden cross, which is a strong bottom signal.As the stock price rises, investors who bought at the bottom begin to make profits, and this strong demonstration effect of making money will attract more OTC funds to intervene, thus erupting into a majestic bull market.
operating principle:
1, short and medium-term moving average golden cross . This golden cross indicates that the average holding cost of the market has developed in a direction that is beneficial to the bulls. As the profit-making effect of the bulls continues to expand, more OTC funds will be attracted to the market.
2, short and medium-term average line golden cross. This golden cross indicates that during the decline, the volume energy first shrank to the extreme, and then new off-market funds continued to enter the market. The volume energy began to increase moderately, and market sentiment was further restored, thus making the volume-price coordination more and more ideal. It is of great significance for individual stocks to bottom out and rebound. Historical experience tells us that unlimited rise is difficult to last for a long time, and the determination of average volume and golden cross can effectively improve the chance of winning.
3, MACD’s golden cross. Regardless of whether DIF and MACD are above the 0 axis or below the 0 axis, when DIF breaks through MACD upward, it is a better buying point in the short and medium term, but the former is a better buying point, while the latter is only a temporary covering of short positions. rebound.
In fact, as long as the three golden crosses of the moving average, moving average line and MACD occur within a few trading days, when the last one of the three occurs a golden cross, it is a buying signal.
Before becoming a master of the stock market, you must do the following five points:
1. Buy once, make a mistake once, do not buy again, sell everything immediately, and wait and see.
2. If you sell once and make a mistake once, you cannot sell it again. You should buy it all back immediately and hold it patiently.
3. Never be a bull or a bear, but be a slicker! Guerrilla tactics
4. If you make a mistake in the market, you should leave the market to wake up and think about your mistakes behind closed doors. You must not go all out. If you know your mistakes, you must correct them.
5. Don’t buy if the moving average system is not good; don’t buy if the K-line shape is imperfect and does not meet the requirements; don’t buy if the lines are messy and scattered.
Five "anti-humanity" techniques:
Anti-humanity 1: Sell the stocks that are losing money
When investors buy stocks, they are very ambitious when they open a position and prepare to make a lot of money. However, the stocks in your hands may not all be so good, and it is common for you to be trapped. If there are multiple stocks in hand, when selling stocks, most people will choose to sell the stocks that make money; most people are reluctant to sell the stocks that lose money, because this is psychologically "cutting off", and it is very difficult to admit failure. matter. However, it is often the stocks that make money that have a higher probability of continuing to rise.
Anti-human nature 2: Don’t look at stock prices every day
When the market is good, people may look at stocks many times a day, but economists recommend that investors look at stock prices less. Statistics say that the fewer times you watch, the higher your investment returns will be. Because rationality is not the normal state of human beings, limited rationality is. If you watch stocks all day long, stock price fluctuations will seriously interfere with your decision-making.
Anti-Humanity 3: Don’t trade frequently
In general, frequent trading hurts both the “spirit” and the “body”. Except for professional short-term speculators, frequent trading is not suitable. When prices fluctuate up and down, people are very easy to become emotional, which affects normal judgment. In addition, handling fees are a cost that cannot be ignored. The more frequent transactions, the higher the fees. Investors should reduce ineffective operations, restrain trading impulses, and reduce transaction costs.
Anti-human nature 4: Buying "expensive" stocks
People have the mentality of picking up bargains, but it is not good if this applies to stocks. Since September 2016, the trend of "leading" in the A-share market has been obvious. Leading stocks such as Kweichow Moutai and Midea Group have risen higher and higher, while small and medium-cap stocks have continued to fall. The characteristics of "leading" stocks are high stock price and high market value. If you don't dare to buy Kweichow Moutai for 500 yuan, it will rise to 680 yuan. Brokers are even more optimistic about it going as high as 850 yuan, until you can't afford it at all.
Anti-human nature 5: Know how to admit defeat
Stock trading must have principles and bottom lines, and more importantly, know how to compromise with the market. A-share small and medium-sized startup stocks have been booming for 7 years. blue-chip stocks have not been loved by the market. However, in the past year or so, blue-chip stocks have become the market's favorite. The blue-chip bull market lasts for such a long time, which is very rare in the A-share market. .People who are keen on small and mid-cap stocks must know how to admit defeat, otherwise they will still only make money on the index but not make any money.
Most investors are irrational, including ourselves of course. If there are no regulations, rules, and systems in operation, you will make the above five "human errors". Stock trading is a very "inhumane" thing. Are you ready?
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(The above content is for reference only and does not constitute operation advice. If you operate by yourself, please pay attention to position control and take risks at your own risk.)
statement: This content is provided by Yuesheng Raiders, which does not mean that Investment Express endorses its investment views.
