In recent times, oil prices have become a hot topic discussed by many car enthusiasts. Especially as the domestic oil prices are expected to drop significantly, and after the new round of price adjustments stabilizes, everyone will shift the topic of discussion to "24:00 on the 28th." Will the price adjustment usher in a big drop?” Of course, most people are currently pessimistic about whether this round of oil price adjustment will see a sharp drop. They believe that it would be good if oil prices can fall. The so-called big drop is unrealistic, because the cumulative decline in oil price forecasts is difficult to exceed. At the 300 yuan/ton mark, there is not much time left for oil price adjustment. In addition, crude oil has rebounded, and the domestic oil price is expected to have a limited decline in just one or two working days. Therefore, the price adjustment is not expected to fall sharply.
In addition, the second view is that as the market is worried that the global economic slowdown will drag down oil demand and panic continues to spread, the rebound in international oil prices is only a flash in the pan. Moreover, the current WTI and Brent crude oil futures are still Downward channel, therefore, the domestic oil price is expected to be further reduced, which means that the price adjustment at 24:00 on the 28th (next Tuesday) is likely to usher in a sharp drop, and there are also many people who hold this view. Of course, the author believes that the price adjustment at 24:00 on the 28th may usher in a sharp drop, which means that there is a possibility of a sharp drop in oil prices, nothing more.
Getting back to the subject, it is an indisputable fact that the domestic oil price is expected to decline significantly. Especially as the change rate of crude oil reaches -4.89% on the 8th working day, deepening the operation in the negative range, the cumulative decline in oil price forecasts exceeds 250 yuan/ton. , which is much higher than the price adjustment red line of 50 yuan/ton. Therefore, there is no suspense about the drop in oil prices. The second drop in oil prices this year has been finalized. Car owners can save a lot of money by filling up a tank of gasoline. In addition, the current oil price forecast reduction is equivalent to a price increase, which is about 0.2 yuan per liter. However, this decline is still a little short of a sharp drop. In addition, there is still some time before the oil price is adjusted. Therefore, whether the price adjustment will plummet has become a point of controversy.
in overseas markets. The market is worried that the global economic slowdown will drag down oil demand, which has led to the recent decline in international crude oil. The cumulative decline of WTI and Brent crude oil futures set a new short-term record. The closing quotes on the 23rd were US$104.27/barrel and US$110.05/barrel respectively. The "high fever" of international oil prices has finally cooled down. However, international oil prices rose significantly on the 24th, with WTI and Brent crude oil rebounding. As of the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange in the United States rose by 3.35 US dollars to close at 107.62 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 3.21%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for delivery in August in the United Kingdom rose by 3.07 US dollars. The U.S. dollar closed at $113.12 per barrel, an increase of 2.79%. To some extent, this rebound in international crude oil may have an impact on the price adjustment of domestic refined oil products. It is predicted that the extent of the downward adjustment may be narrowed, and the possibility of a sharp drop in oil prices is reduced.
Of course, it is reasonable to see a small rebound after the continuous decline in crude oil prices, but the overall trend is not expected to change. Similarly, the domestic oil price forecast trend may also see the same trend, but due to the deepening of the current forecast downward revision , even if the rebound is relatively limited, and the forecast trend of oil prices on the last working day before the price adjustment is crucial, therefore, the possibility of a sharp drop in this round of oil price adjustment cannot be ruled out.
In summary, the domestic oil price is expected to drop significantly. Taking into account the influence of overseas market news, the overall downward trend of international oil prices is outstanding, and short has completely gained the upper hand. Therefore, the price adjustment may usher in a sharp drop at 24:00 on the 28th. After the first price adjustment, domestic refined oil prices showed a pattern of "ten rises, two falls, and zero stranded".
(This article was originally created by Cheng Shuo Fengyun. Welcome to pay attention and increase your knowledge together with everyone.)
