1. The latest new energy vehicle sales data and new energy stock market performance
The figure below shows the sales data and statistical comparison of new car manufacturing forces in June, among which Xpeng 's various data performance is the most eye-catching.
Data source: see the lower right corner of the picture
In the comparison of the cumulative year-on-year growth in the first half of the year, except for Weilai , which only had 21%, all others grew by more than 100%. This fully confirms what I have shouted many times: "New energy is There is no one industry with the fastest growth! "
Although I have shouted this many times on various occasions, many people do not know what it means. It will be more convincing to use the following picture to explain it, no. wrong! That is, the industries with the fastest and most certain growth will definitely be enthusiastically pursued by various funds in any wave of the stock market, and become the most handsome ones.
The data comes from Oriental Fortune Network APP
The above mainly illustrates the impact of industry growth or growth on stock price trends. Let’s talk about the importance of industry growth certainty, because short-term growth is of little significance.
2. Analysis of new energy policies
Last week I said that the development of new energy is the best starting point for China’s stable growth policy. Many people disagreed. Understanding this issue requires some economic knowledge, such as the common means used by the state to stimulate the economy. (Troika: investment, export, consumption), currently it is difficult to achieve the goal by simply increasing investment or one of them, and a three-pronged combination is needed.
Troika is a bit of a big topic. To put it simply, if there is an industry that can invest heavily, promote heavily, and export vigorously, isn’t this the best place to stabilize growth?
Let’s take a look at the new energy industry. 70% of China's electricity comes from thermal power generation. It is possible and necessary to invest heavily in wind power and solar power. The current share of new energy vehicles is less than 20%, and there is huge room for development. The EU finally reached an agreement on June 29 to gradually stop the sale of fuel vehicles in 2035 and set up a fund of tens of billions of euros to share the cost of carbon reduction for the poor. There is huge room for the export of China's new energy vehicles and solar components.
Having said so much above, isn’t new energy a three-pronged combination that the country needs? Is there any better place than this? If you have any questions, please leave a comment below.
3. Prediction of the trend of new energy in the second half of the year
In the 44 trading days since April 27, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 17.36%, and the new energy index has risen by 54.32%. New energy is the well-deserved leading sector, and the sector index has risen After so much, many new energy stocks have doubled in this wave of market conditions, and many new energy stocks have hit record highs. How will the new energy market perform in the future?
Trends of the Shanghai Composite Index and New Energy Index in the same period
Generally speaking, each wave of market movements is initiated by institutions, and the operation time of institutions will span two quarters. For example, in the current second quarter, the top ten positions will be announced on July 21st. holds the position of data (showing the cards), and then mainly rises and ships. Generally speaking, if the fundamentals are poor, shipments will be completed in July. If the fundamentals are good, in July, sideways trading or small adjustments will be the main way to wash the market. , the fundamentals are very good and it is likely that the five-wave trend will continue until the end of the year. Of course, there are also those that have completed their morphological structure before July and will start the main rising wave stage in July, such as the Wind and Power Gemini.
Generally speaking, as long as you catch good new energy stocks, you might as well hold them patiently until mid-August or even mid-November. It is not easy for institutions to launch a market trend. Without enough time and space, profits cannot be realized.
20220703 14:30
in Shenzhen Liantang
