Investment points
In terms of issuance scale in the primary market
, the total scale of credit bond issuance in this period is 221.22 billion yuan, the total repayment scale is 146.204 billion yuan, and the net financing amount is 75.016 billion yuan. In terms of issuance interest rates, judging from the valuation of non-financial corporate debt financing instruments of the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors, the issuance interest rates of different maturities and grades have dropped to varying degrees, and the issuance interest rates of medium and high-grade long-term bonds have dropped more. In terms of issuance grade, 62.31% are AAA-rated entities, 25.70% are AA+-rated, and 9.30% are AA-rated. In terms of the total transaction volume of
in the secondary market, the current credit bonds totaled 466.387 billion yuan. The public utilities, comprehensive and non-bank financial industries in the inter-bank secondary market are relatively popular, and the real estate and comprehensive industries on the exchange receive higher attention. Judging from the income trend, the yields of medium-term notes of all grades in 3-year and 5-year terms have stabilized and rebounded. In terms of term spreads, the spreads between AAA-rated 3-year and 5-year mid-term notes narrowed slightly. In terms of credit spreads, the credit spreads of different grades of 1-year and 5-year mid-term notes narrowed, and the yield of 3-year mid-term notes fluctuated slightly.
Level Changes
A total of 1 company has a positive rating adjustment in this period, which belongs to the comprehensive industry. A total of 7 entities have been adjusted to negative levels in this period, involving commercial trade, communications, pharmaceutical biology, real estate, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and food and beverage industries, 4 of which are private enterprises.
Overview of events
Negative events in this issue include: Kaidi Ecological Environment Technology Co., Ltd. failed to pay the resale amount on time, failed to pay interest on time, and paid risk warnings, Young Eagle Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Group Co., Ltd. paid risk warnings, and Longyue Industrial Group Co., Ltd. The company's debt rating was lowered, Shin Kong Holdings Group Co., Ltd. received a redemption risk warning, Shenwu Technology Group Co., Ltd. received a redemption risk warning and the guarantor rating was lowered, the guarantor rating of Jiangsu Metallurgical Design Institute Co., Ltd. was lowered, and Jilin Forestry Development The guarantor rating of Construction Group Co., Ltd. was downgraded, Shenzhen Gionee Communication Equipment Co., Ltd. received a payment risk warning, Jiangsu Hongtu High-tech Co., Ltd. failed to pay principal and interest on time, Yongtai Group Co., Ltd. failed to pay principal and interest on time, and China Huayang Economic and Trade Group Co., Ltd. Risk warning.
Risk Tips
Focus on the impact of credit risk events on the overall spread.
1. Primary market
.1, issuance quantity
In terms of issuance scale, the total issuance scale of this issue of credit bonds (including corporate bonds, corporate bonds, medium-term notes short-term financing , and PPN) is 221.22 billion yuan, and the total repayment scale is 146.204 billion yuan. yuan, with a net financing amount of 75.016 billion yuan.
In terms of issuance types, short-term financing accounted for 38.88% of the current credit bond issuance, corporate bonds accounted for 6.20%, corporate bonds (including private placement) accounted for 12.76%, medium-term notes accounted for 24.60%, and PPN accounted for 17.56%.
In terms of issuance industries, the current credit bond issuance industries mainly include construction and decoration, comprehensive, public utilities, transportation, non-bank finance, real estate, and commercial trade, with the issuance amount accounting for 27.22%, 20.51%, 14.24%, and 11.00% respectively. , 8.66%, 3.52%, 2.26%.
.2, issuance interest rate
In terms of issuance interest rate, judging from the valuation of non-financial corporate debt financing instruments of the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors, the issuance interest rates of different maturities and grades have dropped to varying degrees, and the issuance interest rates of medium and high-grade long-term bonds have dropped more.
, issuance level
In terms of issuance amount, the issuance amount of the main rating AAA is 90.430 billion yuan, accounting for 62.31%, the AA+ level is 37.300 billion yuan, accounting for 25.70%, and the AA level is 13.490 billion yuan, accounting for 9.30%.
2. Secondary market
.1, Transaction Overview
The total transaction volume of this issue of credit bonds was 466.387 billion yuan. In terms of categories, the transactions of medium-term notes, short-term financing and PPN were 211.179 billion yuan, 167.364 billion yuan and 25.075 billion yuan respectively, while the transactions of corporate bonds and corporate bonds were 44.636 billion yuan and 18.133 billion yuan respectively.
The most actively traded bonds among banks last week were 18 Power Grid CP002, 18 Jincheng Construction SCP006, 18 Huijin MTN005BC, 18 China Energy Conservation SCP001, 18 Guoxin Holdings MTN004, 18 Huaneng SCP015, 18 Shaanxi Coal Chemical MTN006, 18 Nandian SCP008, 18 Chinalco MTN005 and 18 Ping An Leasing MTN001 were popular in the interbank market last week for the public utilities, comprehensive and non-bank financial industries.The top five most active individual bonds on the Shanghai Stock Exchange are: 16 R&F 01, 18 Petrochemical 01, 16 Longfor 01, 16 Fosun 01, and 16 Wanda 01. On the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, 16 Dongtai Bond, 18 Jinke 06, and 17 Hejing 01, 18 Shudong Bond, 16 Xiangjiang Bond, the real estate and comprehensive industries on the exchange still receive more attention.
.2, income trend
.3. Term spread
adopts the difference between short-term and medium-term notes of various maturities of AAA grade as the spread target. On December 14, 2018, the interest rate spreads between 3-year and 1-year, and 5-year and 1-year interest rates were 26.74BP and 45.34BP respectively, down 1.06BP and 0.27BP respectively.
.4, credit spread
uses the difference between the yield of ChinaBond short- and medium-term notes of each maturity and grade and the maturity yield of ChinaBond China Development Bank Bonds of the corresponding maturity as the credit spread target. On December 14, 2018, AAA-rated 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year credit spreads were 70.28 BP, 53.14 BP, and 44.19 BP respectively, down 5.76 BP, 0.61 BP, and 4.04 BP respectively; AA+-rated 1-year credit spreads were 70.28 BP, 53.14 BP, and 44.19 BP respectively. , 3-year, and 5-year credit spreads were 90.28BP, 70.14BP, and 76.19BP respectively, down 5.76BP, 0.61BP, and 4.04BP respectively; AA-rated 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year credit spreads were respectively They were 115.28BP, 111.14BP, and 143.19BP, with changes of -3.76BP, +0.39BP, and -4.04BP respectively. The credit spreads of different grades of 1-year and 5-year mid-term notes narrowed, and the yield of 3-year mid-term notes fluctuated slightly.
3. Level changes
.1, Positive changes
In this period, there is a positive level adjustment in the subject rating, which belongs to the comprehensive industry.
.2, negative changes
A total of 7 companies have been adjusted to negative levels in this period, involving commercial trade, communications, medicine and biology, real estate, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and food and beverage industries, 4 of which are private enterprises.
4. Event Overview
Pay attention to the impact of credit risk events on the overall spread.
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