The Philippines previously held a general election on May 9, 2022. The voting results showed that the son of former leader Marcos, Marcos Jr., and the daughter of current leader Duterte, Sara Duterte, both voted hugely. The gap is ahead of the competition, and the elected leader and deputy leader positions are determined.
The 17th leader of the Philippines in 2022
Many people are worried that this symbolizes the "restoration of authoritarianism" in the Philippines, and attribute the result to the people's "historical forgetfulness" and "advocacy of violence to solve problems." Some people also pointed out that the poor performance of the Philippine government after democratization was the reason why the people lost confidence in democracy and re-embraced the strongman. Although the above factors do exist, their explanatory power is still insufficient.
Competition and Cooperation in Family Relations
Anyone who has a little knowledge of Philippine politics knows that families play a more important role in politics than political parties. The political families in the Philippines were mainly derived from the leaders of the barangays, the basic political unit of the pre-colonial era. During the Spanish colonial era, based on the convenience of rule, instead of eliminating these local leaders, they incorporated them into the feudal system. This not only solidified and hereditary the status of leaders who were originally highly mobile, but also allowed these local leaders to have more power in their territories. Economic and governance privileges have led to the emergence of "large landownership" in the Philippines, like many Latin American countries.
Unlike Latin America, the Spanish colonists were very passive or even resistant to the language assimilation of Filipinos . Therefore, until the end of the Spanish colonial era, the Philippines did not form a unified language field, and only the elite of the landlord class were familiar with Spanish enables cross-regional and transnational exchanges, while ordinary civilians are limited to their ethnic groups and regions. Although the United States promoted English education during the colonial era, due to the overall shortage and uneven distribution of educational resources, English proficiency also produced differences between different regions and classes. As a result, the social relations of the Spanish era continued and resulted in The effect of path following. Reflected in politics, on the one hand, the landlord class can firmly control the region where it is located through long-term patronage and client relationships; on the other hand, it must cooperate with other local families to spread its political influence throughout the country. range. Philippine electoral politics reflects the competitive relationship between different families, and behind this competitive relationship, there are ethnic and geographical factors at play.
Geographical coincidence of the electoral system
Observing the distribution of votes in previous elections, we can find that the areas supporting the Marcos family are highly overlapped with the distribution areas of the Ilocano ethnic group.
Philippine ethnic group distribution map
The Marcos family originated from the province of Ilocos Norte in the northern part of Luzon Island, Philippines. Ilocos is a coastal area in the north of Luzon and west of the Cordillera Mountains. It is also the birthplace of the Ilocano ethnic group. Filipinos' stereotype of the Ilocano ethnic group is very similar to the Japanese stereotype of Koreans. They both think that they are diligent, frugal (stingy) and conservative. Some scholars explain that because the Ilocano ethnic group has faced long-term population pressure in the Ilocos region, they have to engage in more rotations in farming, and thus have developed a culture that attaches greater importance to work discipline. As the population grew, the Ilocano people gradually spread into the Cagayan Valley east of the Cordillera Mountains and pushed south into the Central Luzon Plains. Basically, the area north of the Calaballo Mountains is the stable vote bank of the Marcos family, so it is also called the "Solid North." In
, the Luzon Plain is an area where all forces converge. Although it is a plain terrain, the influence of tropical monsoon climate made this place densely covered with jungles in the early days. As the Great Plains gradually developed, the Ilocano ethnic group moved to the south, the Tagalog ethnic group moved to the north, and there was also a Pampanga (also known as the ‘Kapampangan’) ethnic group sandwiched in between, becoming a very competitive area. The Great Plains of Central Luzon also produced many leaders, such as Mrs. Aquino and Little Aquino of the Aquino family.Their hometown, Darak Province, is a province dominated by the Tagalog ethnic group. In the southern neighboring province of Dalak Province, Pampanga Province, it is the hometown of two other former leaders, the father and daughter Majiabegao and Airoyu. This province is the birthplace of the Pampanga ethnic group.
In the southern part of the Central Luzon Great Plains, it is the Tagalog region consisting of Manila and adjacent provinces. As the capital region, this area has absorbed many immigrants from other regions due to the development of urbanization and industrialization. The Tagalog ethnic group itself has been relatively untouched by the family because it has been promoted to the middle class or separated from the agricultural economy. Dominate. Therefore, the home advantage of Tagalog identity has become increasingly weak, and even non-Tagalog politicians have a chance to be welcomed by voters here.
From the Lingayen Bay at the northern end of the Central Luzon Great Plain to the Lucena-Marne Province at the southern end of Luzon Island, it is called the "Lingayen-Lucena-Marne Corridor". The provinces that this corridor passes through account for 40% of the votes in the Philippines. Coupled with factors such as economic transformation and the relative popularity of television broadcasts, the voter market in this area has a strong character and is a target that all forces can fight for. As long as you can get more than half of the votes here, you will almost certainly win the election.
In this election, in addition to the alliance between the Marcos and Duterte families, they also attracted former leader Airo Yu, allowing them to make great gains in the Central Luzon region. In contrast, the liberal camp, dominated by the Philippine Liberal Party , has been unable to boost support in the region because of the decline of Aquino's family's political influence in Central Luzon after his death.
Former leader of the Philippines
The current key players of the Liberal Party are mainly from Manila, the Bicol Peninsula and the Western Visayas region centered on Iloilo City . Leadership candidate Renee Robedo and Senator De Lima were both born in Camarines Sur, Bicol Region; Senator Franklin Drilon is from Iloilo City; Senators Bam Aquino, Ban Ki Linan and Handiflos were both natives of Manila. As mentioned before, Manila is a place with fierce competition, while the Bicol Peninsula and Western Visayas have mountainous and island terrains. As a basic market, they cannot compete with Luzon Island and southern in terms of population base. Fog competes with mindana .
Negros Island in the Visayas region is divided into two provinces, East and West, based on the mountainous area in the middle of the island, and belongs to the Western Visayas and Central Visayas regions respectively. Although located on the same island, the western half is closer to Panay Island where Iloilo City is located, both speaking "Hiliguenon or Ilocano" language, while the eastern half is related to Iloilo City. Kirishima has a closer relationship, and the language is also dominated by Cebuano . The voting tendencies of the two places are often different. In this election, Negros Occidental Province is more supportive of liberals, while Negros Oriental Province is more supportive of the Marcos-Duterte alliance.
Although the Duterte family is famous for its governance in Davao City, their family actually originated from Cebu Island. From Cebu to Namao also reflects the diffusion path of the "Cebu and Bisaya" ethnic groups. Part of the reason is that since the American colonial era, the government has consciously encouraged the Cebu and Bisaya people who believe in Christianity. The ethnic group moved to Mindanao Island for colonization to balance the power of Muslims. Currently, in the plains of Mindanao, mainly in the Namao and Agusan river basins, the Cebuano and Bisaya ethnic groups already constitute the majority of the population.
The 17th deputy leader of the Philippines in 2022
Bisaya tribe broadly speaking includes the Cebu, Hiligaynon and Ilocano tribes. If it is further subdivided, the Hiligaynon and Ilocano tribes will be included first. The Nuo tribe became independent, while the distinction between the Bisaya and Cebuano tribes was blurred. According to the broadest classification, the Bisaya group is not only the most widespread, but also has a larger population than the Tagalog group.However, the Philippines' development policies tend to focus on the north over the south, focusing on the capital area. Even the national language is accommodating to the Tagalog ethnic group. This has led to a long-standing Yuliang complex between the Bisaya and Tagalog people. The Bisaya community naturally hopes that Duterte, a leader born in the south, can pour resources into the south. During his tenure as leader, Duterte also made many moves in response to the Bisaya identity. For example, he designated Lapu Lapu, the local chief of Cebu who defeated Magellan in the 16th century, as a national hero. He also made some public speeches. mixed with the Bisaya language, and has expressed the hope that his government officials can understand Bisaya. Therefore, at least for now, the Bisaya community's support for the Duterte family is very firm.
Since Duterte came to power in 2016, it has been very obvious to form an alliance with the Marcos family and win over former leader Airoyu. The most symbolic move was that he allowed the remains of former dictator Marcos to be buried in the Cemetery of Heroes (the official cemetery used to bury late Philippine leaders, national heroes, and patriots). As for Airoyu, who was imprisoned for corruption, Duterte supported her innocence and hinted that he would use his leadership privileges to help her. Although Airoyu declined Duterte’s help and refused Duterte’s help during the normal judicial process. He was acquitted, but Airoyu still thanked Duterte for creating the right atmosphere and returned to his position as a member of the House of Representatives to support the policies of the Duterte administration. The Marcos family and the Duterte family, one in the north and the other in the south, combined with Airoyu, who controls the central territory, formed a very solid and difficult to compete with the basic market, supplemented by the application of various marketing strategies and tools, and finally made Pony Ma Cos and Sara Duterte achieved an unprecedented victory.
There is no way to improve the uneven distribution of regional resources, and the inability to find strong political allies in other regions has greatly limited the influence of liberal political forces. Unless the Marcos-Duterte-Airoyo alliance finally falls apart over the distribution of benefits, the liberals still have a long way to go before they can make a comeback.
Author: Wen Kandi
Editor: Zhang Muyang Proofreading: Liu Yiwen
