Yesterday (June 30), Drewry, a British aviation consulting agency, released the latest World Container Comprehensive Shipping Index (WCI). The index showed that it continued to fall 3% this week to 7066.03 US dollars/FEU . It is worth noting that the spot freight rate of the index, which is based on eight major routes in Asia, America, Asia and Europe, and Europe and the United States, has fallen across the board for the first time.
The WCI Composite Index fell 3% this week and is down 16% from the same period in 2021. Drewry's WCI average composite index assessment so far this year is $8,421/FEU, which is still $4,930 higher than the five-year average of $3,490/FEU.
- Shanghai-Los Angeles spot freight fell 4% or US$300 to US$7,652/FEU. dropped 16% compared with the same period in 2021.
- Shanghai-New York spot freight fell 2% to 10,154 US dollars/FEU. is down 13% from the same period in 2021. The spot freight rate of
- Shanghai- Rotterdam fell 4% or US$358 to US$9240/FEU. is down 24% from the same period in 2021.
- Shanghai-Genoa spot freight fell 2% to 10,884 US dollars/FEU. is down 8% from the same period in 2021.
The spot freight rates of Los Angeles-Shanghai, Rotterdam-Shanghai, New York-Rotterdam and Rotterdam-New York all experienced a 1%-2% decrease.
Drewry expects freight rates to continue to decline in the coming weeks.
Some industry investment consultants said that the shipping super cycle has ended, and freight prices will accelerate their decline in the second half of the year. According to its estimates, global container transportation demand growth will slow down from 7% in 2021 to 4% and 3% in 2022 and 2023, and the third quarter will be the turning point.
From the overall supply and demand relationship, the supply bottleneck has been opened, and there is no longer a loss in transportation efficiency. In 2021, ship loading capacity will increase by 5%, and port congestion will cause an efficiency loss of 26%, reducing actual supply growth to only 4%. However, during 2022 and 2023, with the widespread vaccination, port loading and unloading were originally restricted from the first quarter. The chain effects of the epidemic have been significantly alleviated, with truck and intermodal operations gradually resuming, container flows accelerating, the number of dock workers quarantined has been reduced and idle work has been lifted, and ship speeds have increased, etc. It is worth noting that once demand for declines in the third quarter, transportation efficiency is expected to further improve. It is expected that with the gradual recovery of the 26% efficiency loss caused by the port congestion, the actual supply growth will significantly accelerate to 25% and 13% in the same period. .
The third quarter is the traditional peak season for shipping. According to industry insiders, according to the usual practice, European and American retailers and manufacturing industries start to pull goods in July, but this year there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, especially since the demand for Shanghai's unblocking is not as expected, and the soaring freight prices during the peak season of last year may not be repeated. The price trend will probably become clearer in mid-to-late July.
In addition, according to data released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange last week, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) index fell for two consecutive weeks, falling 5.83 points to 4216.13 points last week, a decrease of 0.13%. Freight rates on the three major ocean routes continued to correct, with the US East Line falling by 2.67%, the first time it fell below the US$10,000 mark since the end of July last year.
- The freight rate from the Far East to the US West is US$7,378/FEU, a weekly decrease of US$111, or 1.36%. has hit a new low since mid-December last year; U.S. dollars, It fell 2.67%, and hit an 11-month low.
- Far East to Europe freight rate is 5,766 US dollars/FEU, a weekly decrease of 27 US dollars, a decrease of 0.52%, a new low since June last year;
- Far East to Mediterranean 6,425 US dollars/FEU, a weekly decrease of 62 US dollars, a decrease of 0.96% 1
analysis Experts believe that the current market is full of variables. Factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, global strikes, interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, inflation, and other factors may inhibit the demand for European and American products. In addition, the cost of raw materials and transportation logistics is high, and foreign trade manufacturers are also tending to prepare materials for production. Being too conservative may affect the motivation to pull cargo; at the same time, the number of ships in Merseyside Port has increased, the supply of shipping capacity has increased, and freight rates have continued to consolidate at a high level.
