Today, Tuesday, June 21, the 12th round of domestic refined oil price adjustments in 2022 will be good again! Although the international oil price, which is linked to the price adjustment of refined oil, has rebounded due to the market's belief that OPEC's actual ability to increase production may be limited, and Biden said that the economic recession is not inevitable and other good news, considering that the international oil price fell significantly in the first half of the price adjustment cycle, comprehensive changes in crude oil varieties The rate is still on the path of negative value, and the corresponding price adjustment status of gasoline and diesel at corresponding gas stations is still expected to be in a downward adjustment state.
Based on the domestic refined oil price adjustment cycle of 10 working days, the new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on June 28, 2022, which is the end of June. Although the new pricing mechanism for domestic refined oil products stipulates that when the price adjustment range of gasoline and diesel is lower than 50 yuan per ton, no adjustment will be made and it will be included in the next price adjustment to be accumulated or offset. However, based on the analysis of this round of refined oil price adjustments, if international oil prices fail to achieve a significant decline this week, domestic oil prices may usher in the first oil price reduction of in June.
Analyzing the current domestic refined oil market, the market focuses on the following aspects: First, the market believes that OPEC’s actual ability to increase production may be limited, and Biden said that economic recession is not inevitable, and international oil prices have rebounded. NYMEX crude oil futures are closed due to the June holiday in the United States and there is no settlement price; ICE Brent oil futures 08 contract rose 1.01 US dollars per barrel or 0.89% to 114.13. China's INE crude oil futures main contract 2208 fell 25.2 yuan/barrel to 704.6 yuan/barrel, and fell 3.4 yuan/barrel to 701.2 yuan/barrel in night trading.
Secondly, yesterday the production and sales rate of gasoline and diesel of Shandong independent refinery exceeded one million. However, part of the main business of gasoline is still supported by the high cost of external procurement and allocation of resources. However, in order to meet monthly sales tasks, some of the main business may have promotions. And finally, the midstream and downstream purchasers are cautious and continue to purchase on demand.
In summary, it is not difficult to find that international crude oil closed higher, and the news provided good guidance. However, as the end of the month approaches, some companies are mainly engaged in meeting monthly sales tasks or continuing promotions. Yesterday, the gasoline and diesel production and sales ratios of independent northern refineries exceeded 100, achieving destocking. Coupled with the upward boost of crude oil opening, it is expected that independent refinery gasoline prices may remain strong today, and diesel prices may be less than 30 yuan/ton. Crude oil closed higher yesterday and continued to rise at the opening today, which may boost market sentiment to a certain extent. However, main operating units in some regions are trying to catch up with monthly sales progress and do not rule out the possibility of continuing price reductions and promotions. Yesterday, the production and sales of gasoline and diesel from independent refineries in Shandong exceeded one million. Coupled with the upward boost of crude oil and the positive news, it is expected that the price of gasoline and diesel will mainly rise slightly today.
In addition, boosted by multiple positive factors such as the continued rise in crude oil prices, price increases by the National Development and Reform Commission, and rising centralized procurement prices, gasoline and diesel prices in the Northeast have continued to rise recently, and refinery volumes have improved. Let's take a detailed look at the specific situation in the Northeast region:
1. The trend of crude oil continues to be strong, which brings benefits to the oil market. Since June, international crude oil prices have shown an overall upward trend. As of June 8, the price of WTI was US$122.11/barrel, an increase of 5.94% from June 1; the price of Brent was US$123.58/barrel, an increase of 5.94% from June 1. It rose 6.27% on March 1. Among them, the core factors affecting the rise of international crude oil are: The European Union plans to embargo Russian oil in stages, coupled with the peak consumption season in the United States and the continued improvement of the epidemic in Asia.
2. The tax-included price of gasoline and diesel in Northeast China has increased. As of June 8, the prices of refining gasoline and diesel in Northeast China showed an upward trend. National VI 92# gasoline was 9202 yuan/ton, an increase of 233 yuan/ton from the previous month; National VI 0# diesel was 8579 yuan/ton, an increase of 87 yuan/ton from the previous month. Ton. Driven by the continued rise in crude oil, the price of tax-included gasoline and diesel in Northeast China followed suit. As the temperature rises, the usage rate and fuel consumption of car air conditioners increase, and the demand for gasoline is strong; for diesel, affected by different factors such as high temperature, outdoor demand is suppressed, and the increase in gasoline is greater than that of diesel.
3. Positive aspects stimulated demand, and sales of gasoline and diesel improved. From May 8 to June 8, the gasoline sales of independent refineries in Northeast China were 614,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 24.60%; the diesel sales were 1.4615 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 28.09%. Entering June, international crude oil continued to rise, and temporary quotas were added Boosted by the news of the export landing, the enthusiasm of the middle and lower reaches to enter the market has greatly increased. Coupled with the delivery of early closing orders by refineries, production and sales have basically remained flat, and market transactions have been good.
4. Sales improved and inventory was released. As of May, it is not difficult to see from the figure that gasoline and diesel inventories tend to decline. The gasoline inventory of independent refineries in Northeast China was 338,000 tons, down 10.94% from the previous month, and the diesel inventory was 409,000 tons, down 12.98% from the previous month. At present, the epidemic situation in various places is easing, and the news of factories resuming work and production has created a rush for goods, and the shipment of gasoline and diesel from warehouses is smooth. However, considering that in mid-to-early June, the summer harvest is over, diesel is facing an off-season crisis and demand is limited, which may lead to a gradual increase in inventory; as gasoline enters the peak consumption season and is supported by many good news, inventories may continue to decline.
Overall, the EU's plan to impose a comprehensive embargo on Russian crude oil has caused supply concerns, and the epidemic in Asia has shown continued signs of improvement. There is still room for crude oil prices to rise in the near future. There is strong support on the cost side, but the domestic epidemic situation still severely restricts demand. Fortunately, due to the fermentation of the news of temporary export quotas for refined oil, the prices of gasoline and diesel raw materials have followed the upward trend, and the finished product market has surged. Overall, it is estimated that demand for gasoline will still increase in mid- to mid-June due to the increase in air-conditioning oil consumption; while for diesel, affected by seasonal factors, there will be downward pressure in the middle to late June.
In addition, Asian gasoline will be supported by summer driving demand and tight supply in Malaysia, as the restart of Malaysia's Malacca refinery is delayed from an expected mid-June. Poor downstream profits in Asia continue to suppress buying interest in naphtha . Currently, naphtha purchases for delivery in the first half of August are not active yet. However, last week, Taiwan's Formosa Plastics and China National Petroleum Corp. began purchasing regular supplies of naphtha amid the market downturn. Data from Insights Global, a Dutch consulting company, shows that as of the week of June 16, the naphtha inventory at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage center was 371,000 tons, an increase of more than 70% from the previous week, reaching the highest level since the previous week. The highest level since late August 2021. During the same period, affected by strong exports, gasoline inventories fell by about 5% to 1.16 million tons. Singapore's html No. 295 gasoline spot price is assessed at US$151.72 per barrel; Singapore's No. 92 gasoline spot price is assessed at US$143.89 per barrel; Singapore naphtha's spot price is US$82.13 per barrel.
Data from Insights Global, a Dutch consulting company, shows that the diesel inventory at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage center in the week ended June 16 was 1.41 million tons, a drop of more than 3% from the previous week, but for Rhine River Weekly exports from the Inland Coast region are at their lowest level since late 2017. At the same time, jet fuel inventories decreased to 800,000 tons, a decrease of 1.20% from the previous week. In the Singapore spot market, Shell Company sold 150,000 barrels of 10ppm diesel to Vitol for shipment on July 3-7, which was US$3.60 higher than the Singapore quotation per barrel; Shell sold 185,000 barrels to BP on July 11 -The 10ppm sulfur diesel fuel shipped on the 15th was US$6.80 per barrel higher than the price quoted in Singapore; Saudi Aramco sold 200,000 barrels of 50ppm sulfur diesel fuel to Vitol for shipment from July 14th to 18th, per barrel $0.50 lower than persian gulf quote. The Singapore jet fuel market spot price is assessed at US$166.58 per barrel, and the diesel market spot price is US$178.24 per barrel.
Today is June 21. Finally, the author will take you to take a look at the prices of 92 and 95 gasoline and diesel after the national price adjustment on June 21, 2022. This is also the retail limit of various types of gasoline and diesel in 31 provinces, cities and regions across the country today. The following prices are for reference only. Please refer to the actual transactions at local gas stations for specific retail prices.
