The short-term decline of in the A-share market has made many friends a little panicked and confused. Based on this, Wen Yan summarized the 9 bottom characteristics of the stock market and shared them with everyone.
1. One of the bottom characteristics: Fund issuance freezing point
Judging from the monthly issuance share of public funds, the issuance share of public funds in January 2022 has hit a freezing point in 18 years. In other words, the current difficulty of public offering is even more Even worse than the extreme market conditions in 2018.
2. Bottom characteristic two: low valuation
The valuation level of the major broad-based indexes, currently CSI 500 and CSI 300, according to the consensus expectations of institutions in 2022 (data source: consensus expectation data of Wind institutions), according to 3 Calculated from the closing price on March 4, the corresponding valuation levels in 2022 are 15 times and 10 times respectively. Since 2017, the lowest price-to-earnings ratios of the CSI 500 and CSI 300 in the past five years have been 13 times and 10 times respectively, that is He said that currently, the CSI 500 and CSI 300 are neither rising nor falling by the end of the year, and their valuations have hit a five-year low.
3. The third bottom characteristic: a large proportion of stocks that have broken net assets in a large area
have broken net assets. For example, before the previous two big market trends, in October 2008 and in December 2018, stocks with broken net assets accounted for approximately 14% and 12%. Currently, the proportion of net-breaking stocks in the entire market is about 6.8%, which is similar to the 6% of net-breaking stocks in the entire market in 2013. Under normal circumstances, the stock market maintains moderate valuations, and the net-breaking rate is extremely low. Therefore, in fact, the current proportion of net-breaking stocks is relatively high, and there is a bottom characteristic.
4. The fourth bottom characteristic: land volume
volume and price come first, and daily volume are at sky-high prices, land volume is based on land price, and the market transaction volume can reach the land volume. The market will gradually bottom out. Judging from the current market transaction volume, the market is approaching. In the bottom area of the trading volume energy, the trading volume energy has reached below one trillion, the market activity is low, and the probability of the market bottoming out is increasing. If we take away the volume capacity of quantitative trading , although the current market liquidity is sufficient, the trading volume can be very close to the local volume level. The current level of
head quantification is 100-200 billion yuan. If calculated based on twice the trading volume, quantitative trading may reach the level of 400 billion yuan. Excluding the current level of less than one trillion yuan, the current trading volume may be Only the level of 400 billion is left, and the land price is low, and the probability of the market trending at the bottom is high.
5. Bottom feature five: stock index futures discount narrowed
Last year, the CSI 500 index futures contract had been at a discount, and the discount range once reached 10%. After rapid adjustments this year, the discount has now disappeared, and The futures index of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 even showed premiums, indicating that the short sellers of the futures index have gradually closed their short positions and have begun to increase the long positions of and .
6. Bottom characteristic six: the stock-bond yield difference is at a historical high
Select CSI 500 index yield (that is, the reciprocal of the price-earnings ratio), compare it with 2 times the 10-year treasury bond yield, and calculate the difference by taking the difference between the two The yield on stocks and bonds is currently close to 0, proving that the yield on the CSI 500 Index is significantly more attractive than the yield on government bonds.
The stock and bond yields have been close to 0 twice in history, corresponding to the stock market bottoms in 2008 and 2018, respectively, and have since risen for more than a year. From this perspective, the current investment attractiveness of the CSI 500 Index has increased, but the rise still needs to be catalyzed.
7. The seventh bottom characteristic: Cases around us
① The proportion of customers in margin trading fell below 130% and the proportion of customers decreased significantly. The market fell rapidly in the early stage, and the phenomenon of falling below the liquidation line or continuously falling below the liquidation line remained high. Recently, it has been significantly reduced and has basically returned to normal levels.
②Investors are less willing to increase their positions. Investors are currently in a pessimistic mood and have a strong willingness to wait and see.
8. Bottom characteristic eight: The number of listed companies announcing buybacks and shareholding increases has increased.
In the past year, more than half of the listed companies have issued buyback announcements. Intensive buybacks by listed companies have also occurred at the bottom of previous indexes. In addition, there have been more shareholders increasing their holdings recently. Industrial Capital uses real money to buy listed companies, mostly based on its optimism about the future of listed companies.
9. Bottom characteristic nine: The scissor difference between M1 and M2 is at the historical extreme value
Historically, M1-M2 has dropped, and the index has picked up before the growth rate of M1-M2. Historically, this feature has appeared in the bull market in 2007, the bull market in 2009 and 2010, and the bull market in 2014 and 2015.
In summary, from the above discussion we can see that the current market already has a number of market characteristics that are at least unique to the short- and medium-term bottom. In the long run, the market will eventually return to its own trend track. Therefore, there is no need to panic too much and wait rationally for new opportunities in the market.
