Zhitong Finance APP has learned that according to a TrendForce survey, due to rising DRAM quotations and a shortage of materials in the supply chain since the beginning of this year, most purchasers have continued to expand their purchases to avoid shortages, resulting in continued strong demand until the middle of the year. However, the issue of component length and short material caused by the epidemic has gradually intensified the impact on end product assembly, prompting some manufacturers to begin to reduce the purchase of relatively long-material memories, especially the attitude of PC OEMs. Fortunately, demand on the server side is still relatively supportive, driving shipments from most DRAM suppliers to still grow slightly in the third quarter. Coupled with rising DRAM quotations, pushed up the total DRAM output value in the third quarter, which still grew by 10.2% quarter-on-quarter. reaching US$26.6 billion.
Looking forward to the fourth quarter, under the dual pressure of continued supply chain issues and the upcoming inventory count at the end of the year, buyers with high DRAM inventories may be even more restrained in purchasing, causing DRAM prices to lose support and even reverse downwards. , ending the rising cycle of only three quarters. In addition, since the fourth quarter will be the first quarter in which DRAM quotations have fallen, buyers may be even more sluggish in their purchasing intentions under the expectation that subsequent prices will only be lower. This will in turn expand the decline in subsequent quotations, which may also affect subsequent output performance. .
DRAM prices increased in the third quarter, and the proportion of advanced processes increased, and the profit level of many original manufacturers continued to improve.
In terms of revenue performance, the three major DRAM original manufacturers continued to improve this quarter, but there were slight differences in shipment performance. , Samsung and Micron's shipments increased slightly, while SK hynix's shipments declined slightly. However, supported by rising DRAM quotations, which offset the weakness on the shipping side, the revenue performance of the three major manufacturers still grew in the third quarter. The revenue of Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron increased by 11%, 8% and 12% respectively, an increase of about 10%, which was relatively restrained compared with the second quarter. In terms of market share, Samsung ranked first with 44%; SK Hynix's market share shrank slightly to 27.2% despite a decrease in shipments, while Micron also increased slightly to 22.9%.
In terms of profit performance, due to the continued rise in quotations and the gradual increase in the proportion of advanced processes, the profit levels of manufacturers in the third quarter have maintained a trend of improvement quarter by quarter. Samsung's share of 1Znm continues to increase, driving its operating profit margin to 53%, returning to the high level nearly three years ago; SK Hynix also has the blessing of 1Znm, its operating profit rate rises to 47%; and the third largest The quotation increase of the factory Micron in this financial reporting season (June to August) is approximately the same as that of the Korean factory, and its operating profit rate is also 42%. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, TrendForce Consulting believes that under the forecast that market prices are likely to decline, whether DRAM suppliers can maintain profits at the current level depends on their respective advanced process transfer speed and yield performance.
The Specialty DRAM market weakened in the third quarter, and the performance of Taiwanese manufacturers was slightly lower than that of the three major original manufacturers
Taiwanese manufacturers. Since the price increase of specialty DRAM in the first half of this year was higher than that of mainstream products, in the third quarter, with the increase of TV, consumer products Due to the decline in demand for electronic products and the impact of supply chain problems, clients' efforts to purchase DRAM have also significantly cooled down, which has also indirectly affected the revenue performance of Taiwanese manufacturers that focus on the consumer market. Nanya Tech's quarterly prices continued to rise, offsetting the weakness on the shipping side. Its third-quarter revenue increased by about 6% quarter-on-quarter, while its operating profit margin continued to improve due to higher quotes, rising from 31.2% in the previous quarter. 38.1%. In the market dominated by small capacity (1/2Gb), Winbond's overall order demand is still relatively strong. In the third quarter, DRAM revenue increased by nearly 13% compared with the previous quarter, which is the best performance among Taiwanese manufacturers. By.
However, according to TrendForce’s survey, the factories of the two Taiwanese factories mentioned above are already full, and there is no extra space to add machines and equipment before the completion of the new factory. Therefore, short-term performance changes are greatly affected by quotations. Nanya needs to wait until the new plant is completed in 2024 before it can start production. In the short term, only the transfer of the advanced process 1A/1B nm will bring about slight bit growth. Winbond also needs to wait until the Kaohsiung Road Bamboo Factory joins mass production in the second half of 2022 before there is room for continued growth in production capacity. Finally, Power Semiconductor (PSMC)'s revenue calculation mainly refers to its own standard DRAM products and does not include DRAM foundry business. In the third quarter, DRAM revenue grew by about 6%. If foundry revenue is included, the growth would be reaches 12%.
