The American "Foreign Policy" magazine recently published an article "The Wave of Deglobalization and Its Dangers" stating that now, a new "deglobalization" consensus has formed in the Western world. Some people believe that globalization is coming to a bad end. As the COVID-19 epidemic continues to spread at the global level, the globalization process has suffered the biggest impact since World War II. In fact, the crisis encountered by globalization had already been revealed before the epidemic, and the epidemic can be regarded as the "catalyst" of this crisis. Long-standing global problems, the current unpredictable international situation, and the rise of "anti-globalization" from undercurrents to widespread raging have all brought unprecedented resistance and obstacles to the current globalization process. So, what kind of development dilemma is the current globalization process facing? What kind of social contradictions in Western countries are reflected behind “anti-globalization”? Where should globalization go in the post-epidemic era? In order to explore these issues, this article sorted out the academic views and interviewed relevant scholars.
The globalization process is at a standstill
Thomas Hale, associate professor of public policy at the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford, UK, and David Held, professor of politics and international relations at Durham University The co-authored article points out that the post-World War II order benefited from a basically benign international system cycle. In this cycle, deepening globalization makes deeper international cooperation inevitable. The number of international institutions and their branches has increased from a few hundred in 1950 to more than 7,000 today.
Kerry Brown Interviewee/Photo courtesy
Gavier Waddell Interviewee/Photo courtesy
As John Ruggie, the originator of the concept of "embedded liberalism" said, is exactly Industrialized countries have been able to sustain their economic miracle by “embedding” the global economy in a system of mutually reinforcing domestic regulation and global governance. However, Hare and Held point out that, to some extent, the system works very well. As more countries with diverse needs join the global economic system , reaching consensus becomes more difficult than ever. Global problems have begun to become more complex, and the interdependence between countries needs to be profoundly adjusted. The accompanying outcome is that many international institutions have become stagnant and fragmented, and global governance is in trouble.
The American political news website "POLITICO" published an article stating that the vigorous development of globalization over the years has now ushered in a new reality of huge setbacks. The COVID-19 epidemic has done what the protectionism promoted by the United States has failed to do, and what anti-globalization advocates have failed to do for decades. The impact of the epidemic on globalization has prompted political circles in various countries to urgently seek new solutions. A few years ago, political efforts to reshape global trade were launched again and again under the political slogan of focusing on the interests of exporters and workers, calling for a "better global agreement," strengthening environmental and labor protection, and insisting on fair trade. However, today, from the White House to Congress to major business schools, the topic of debate is no longer the extent to which globalization promotes "trade fairness" or how multinational companies benefit from "operating profits", but the raging epidemic. What risks and uncertainties has globalization increased?
The article commented that at a time when countries around the world are facing sudden shortages of everything from personal protective equipment and medicine to laptops , the epidemic has nakedly demonstrated the world’s appetite for imported basic goods, especially those from China. degree of dependence. Disruption of global supply chains is no longer a matter of economics textbooks, but a matter of life and death before us.
In the new season of special interviews launched by "POLITICO" focusing on globalization, "vulnerability" replaced "efficiency" as the keyword in the mouths of business leaders, economists and other interviewees.Adegoke Oke, an associate professor at Arizona State University's Carey Business School, likens the global supply chain to a tug-of-war game: if one participant falls, others in the team may fall as well - The weak link actually determines the strength of the chain. "In the past, we have been teaching students how to optimize the supply chain and reduce costs in order to maximize supply chain efficiency. Over the years, many companies around the world have learned the art of cost reduction. However, the consequence of this is that in When encountering sudden pressure, the supply chain will become very fragile."
Tom Duesterberg, a senior researcher at the Hudson Institute in the United States, believes: "What the new coronavirus epidemic does is make people like a laser. Focusing on this issue, 70% of the world's maritime ports of entry have been affected at one time. Global supply chains have proven to be very fragile and must be made more resilient. The effective way to restore ' resilience' is to make it more resilient. The transnational production of products is transferred back to the home country, but this is undoubtedly not conducive to the globalization process. "Hale and Held pointed out in sharp writing: "Today, our ability to manage globalization is shrinking. The consequences are serious. We were unable to control the financial crisis of 2008-2009, which cost the world trillions in household wealth and millions of jobs; we have not put in place adequate safeguards to prevent the next crisis; our fragile The international refugee system has failed to alleviate the suffering of millions of people displaced by conflict, highlighted by the continued frequency of severe droughts, floods, storms and fires around the world, despite some progress in mitigating global climate change. We still have a long way to go."
Deglobalization leads to economic recession
Hale and Held pointed out that the failure to deal with a series of global problems in a timely manner has triggered one "deglobalization" after another. ” wave and protest movement. The domestic foundations on which the world order rests are under attack and the international system is further weakened - a self-reinforcing deadlock that in turn reduces humanity's ability to manage globalization and deal with global problems. A large portion of the world's population is affected as a result.
Kerry Brown, director of the China Institute at King's College London, said in an interview with this reporter that in recent years, some resisters of globalization believe that globalization has led to the dispersion of state power. In order to participate in the global system, all countries have to give up part of their sovereignty. In their view, globalization has generally eroded and restricted the sovereignty of various countries, especially Western powers that occupy a dominant position in international affairs.
The American "Foreign Policy" magazine analyzed that as global chaos and crises ensue, a new voice is forming in the world's developed economies: it is time to deglobalize. These countries advocate tighter control of borders, the establishment of so-called resilient closed supply chains, the pursuit of self-sufficiency in key technologies, and the imposition of trade sanctions on opponents regardless of global trade rules... However, deglobalization also has its own costs and dangers, The consequences range from rising inflation to labor shortages, from rising protectionism to pressure on the global financial system. The world needs strong measures to curb this momentum and help some governments get back on track from their extreme divisive tendencies.
Over the past 40 years, globalization has played an important role in controlling inflation. Multinational companies have cut costs through more refined supply chains, sourcing from cheaper places, and using just-in-time production to reduce inventories. This has kept the prices of most consumer goods on a downward trend despite soaring global demand. Free trade also forces domestic companies to lower prices to compete with imported products.From 1980 to 2010, the opening of local markets in countries such as China and India to the global economy doubled the size of the global labor force, and the resulting competition limited wage growth in advanced economies. Although wage stagnation is not something to celebrate in the United States or Europe, it objectively curbs inflationary pressures.
"Foreign Policy" magazine analyzed that, however, the current de-globalization momentum has exacerbated inflation , especially in the United States. A few years ago, the Trump administration's trade tariff policies pushed up the prices of local lumber, steel, solar panels, and more. Subsequently, the COVID-19 pandemic led to factory closures, strict border restrictions, and the near-paralysis of the service economy... all of which increased inflationary pressures. In addition, Western trade and financial sanctions against Russia need to be scrutinized and criticized. Western banks have frozen the Russian central bank foreign exchange assets, and Russia has also been banned from importing most Western goods. These actions will force some countries in the globalization network to develop into an inward-looking economic model, "allowing most of the world to benefit from global trade." The rules of good governance will be further weakened. Severe economic sanctions against Russia have disrupted global energy and food supplies and accelerated increases in fuel and food prices around the world. The U.S. consumer price index in March 2022 increased by 8.5% compared with the same period in 2021, the highest level since 1981. Given the uncertainty over Russian oil and natural gas supply, Europe's inflation rate is almost the same as that in the United States and may rise rapidly in the short term. European central banks are considering raising interest rates to curb rising prices, which could trigger a new recession. Many Asian countries are eager for the United States to take new measures on trade to deal with the globalization crisis. However, the U.S. politicians are advocating the reshoring of industries.
Anti-globalization reflects the crisis of capitalism
As the voices of deglobalization come and go, an upgraded version of "anti-globalization" is sweeping across. In recent years, "anti-globalization" has taken hold in Europe and the United States, and the discussion of its roots and nature has become a major research focus in the academic community. Scholars generally believe that "anti-globalization" reflects the conflict of economic interests among various contradictory subjects in Western developed countries. Some so-called "globalization losers" attribute their failure to the uneven distribution of globalization dividends.
According to the World Bank report, globalization over the past 40 years has led to a sharp increase in the wealth of the top 1% of global wealth, including multinational corporate executives and Wall Street bank giants. On the one hand, this trend has allowed the upper class in developed countries to continuously seize huge profits in the process of globalization; on the other hand, it has caused the abandoned working class and other white conservatives to become increasingly resistant to globalization.
In the best-selling book "Hillbilly Elegy," J. D. Vance called the white working class "the most pessimistic group in America." The author grew up under the background of the declining manufacturing industry in the " Rust Belt " of the United States under the impact of economic globalization. He used his personal experience to reveal the despair and powerlessness of the working people in the region facing reality. The book points out that the living conditions of this group in the "Rust Belt" are no different from those of the black people at the bottom. “What is more terrible than poverty is the loss of hope,” the author describes. Under the increasingly unbalanced pattern of wealth differentiation, the dissatisfaction of white civilians in the American South gradually accumulated and exploded, and social rifts that were difficult to bridge caused "political polarization."
"How would President Trump's electoral prospects have changed if workers in the 'Rust Belt' had not lost their jobs or defaulted on their mortgages? If there had never been a refugee crisis in Europe, How likely would Brexit have been? ” Hale and Held asked in the article.
The two pointed out that In the face of frustrated globalization, some ultra-nationalists will naturally react and try to use national sovereignty to regain control from the national level. Such a political ecology allows nationalist politicians and populist leaders to succeed. Global issues expert Dani Rodrik once said that wise governments can use this opportunity to regulate globalization more effectively. Yet the reality is that these “successful” leaders often reject global cooperation and openness entirely, and are unwilling to explore productive solutions. This often exacerbates the political ills that gave them the opportunity to take advantage of them and propelled them to power.
Javiel Vadell, professor of international relations at the Catholic University of Minas Gerais in Brazil, explained to reporters from the perspective of the global expansion of the capitalist mode of production that "anti-globalization" is capitalism on a global scale. The adverse consequences of self-regulation within the body. The globalization that has been formed for a long time in the past is essentially neoliberal globalization led by developed capitalist countries in Europe and the United States and based on financial freedom. The governance of financial freedom is dominated and dominated by Western hegemony, the US dollar, and international private capital. . Currently, the "polarizing effect" of capitalism is creating more suffering and inequality in developed Western societies. While the epidemic is accelerating the process of "anti-globalization" at the global level, it has also exposed serious social problems in Western societies. The rise of populists to power reflects the systemic crises and social contradictions common in capitalist societies. As the era of a unipolar world becomes a thing of the past, global capitalism is in the process of decline and exhaustion. Imperialism (also known as "monopoly capitalism" or "modern capitalism") that appeared in specific forms in the United States at the end of the 20th century and the 21st century is the final stage of capitalist development. Its form of interference in the internal affairs of other countries ranges from subtle "mixed War" evolved into a direct war represented by the war in Afghanistan. The overall rise of emerging countries marks a profound change in the international system, but it does not mean that unilateralism and imperialist tendencies have completely come to an end.
Improving global governance is the right way
Despite the many obstacles, people must admit that globalization is the general trend. In a highly integrated and connected global system, no country or region can survive alone.
"In the current situation where mankind is facing a variety of challenges such as intensified epidemics and frequent disasters, without in-depth cooperation among countries and a commitment to globalization, many problems shared by mankind cannot be solved. Although many problems around the world There are many deglobalization institutions and organizations in the region that emphasize local autonomy and the right to independent expression. I think that for most people, the trend of globalization cannot and should not be avoided. The United Kingdom after leaving the EU is an example. , today it remains as dependent on allies and global networks as ever," Brown said.
Hale and Held said that making global governance relevant again will be a challenge that will last several years. The impasse in global governance and the spread of counter-globalization indicate that we cannot understand this trend in isolation from a single country. In an interdependent world, truly "strengthening a country's national sovereignty" requires better management of globalization at the international level. Encouragingly, we are already seeing pathways of change – whether it’s large cities hosting transnational events to combat climate change, or local communities welcoming immigrants and refugees, diverse actors are devising new ways to address global challenges, Political declarations such as the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations have enabled mankind to focus on long-term projects. If more novel ways can be found on the basis of these positive trends to build consensus on globalization and achieve true benefit sharing, the foundation of anti-globalization will be weakened. But if this attempt fails, the vicious cycle of "anti-globalization" backlash will continue to spiral.
As Engels said, "There is no huge historical disaster that is not compensated by historical progress." Ian Goldin, Professor of Globalization and Development at the University of Oxford, concluded that Humanity should see opportunities in the current chaos and uncertainty, and the new crown pneumonia epidemic has created a critical moment. Although the future is murky, seizing this historic moment can turn the tide and reshape individual and collective destiny. We need to move forward on the path to a better world.
Source: China Social Sciences Network Author: Bai Le
