As of 13:00 on June 20, Beijing time, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide was 539 million. There were 3.694 million new confirmed cases globally last week, rising for two consecutive weeks;

As of 13:00 on June 20, Beijing time, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia worldwide was 539 million (data from Johns Hopkins University). Last week (13:00 on June 13 to 13:00 on June 20), there were 3.694 million new confirmed cases worldwide, which has been rising for two consecutive weeks; there were 9,144 new deaths, which remained near the average of the past month.

The rise in new cases worldwide is related to the accelerated spread of the epidemic in developed European countries. Last week, 2.603 million new cases were diagnosed in developed countries, a four-week high. Among them, 1.407 million new cases were diagnosed in developed countries in Europe, a week-on-week increase of 42.8%. Among the major developed countries in Europe, the week-on-week growth rate of new cases in Germany (403,000 new cases), France (333,000 new cases), and Italy (226,000 new cases) all exceeded 25% last week, with France’s month-on-month increase It’s even closer to 200%. There were 730,000 new confirmed cases in the United States last week, which was roughly at the same level as the previous five weeks; according to estimates from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as of the week of June 11, Omicron BA.4, BA. Subtype 5 cases account for more than 20% of new cases, a 66% increase from the previous week.

Last week, there were 1.09 million new confirmed cases and 3,938 new deaths in developing countries, which were roughly at the same level as the previous month. The epidemic situation in some South American countries is showing signs of easing. Last week, 155,000 new cases were reported in Brazil, which dropped to the lowest in four weeks. Last week, India had 79,000 new confirmed cases, a 16-week high and a week-on-week increase of 62.8%.

According to data from China's National Health Commission, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 399 new confirmed cases last week, including 209 local cases; 3870 new cases of asymptomatic infections, including There are 284 local asymptomatic infections.

There were 493 new positive cases in the local area last week, a new low since March; there were 2 provinces and cities (autonomous regions) with more than 100 new positive cases, namely Beijing (192 cases) and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (127 cases) , showing a downward trend compared with the previous week. There were 81 new local positive cases in Shanghai last week, dropping below 100 for the first time since March. 14 of them were discovered during risk screening, less than half of the previous week.

The epidemic situation in Taiwan, China, has further eased, with 402,813 new confirmed cases last week, the lowest since mid-May.

According to data from OurWorldInData, as of June 18, a total of 11.99 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines had been administered globally, with 49 million new doses administered in the previous week, about one-third of which were booster shots.

On Friday, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Pfizer's and Moderna's new crown vaccines for use in children under 5 years old. There are currently about 18 million American children who meet this criterion, and they are the last group in the United States to be allowed to receive the new coronavirus vaccine.

There were 730,000 new confirmed cases in the United States last week, which is roughly at the same level as the previous five weeks; according to estimates from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as of the week of June 11, the Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subtypes Cases accounted for more than 20% of new cases, a 66% increase from the previous week. The epidemic in some South American countries is showing signs of easing. Last week, Brazil had 155,000 new cases, the lowest in four weeks.

Last week, 1.407 million new cases were diagnosed in developed countries in Europe, a week-on-week increase of 42.8%, which has been rising for three consecutive weeks. Among the major developed countries in Europe, the week-on-week growth rate of new cases in Germany (403,000 new cases), France (333,000 new cases), and Italy (226,000 new cases) all exceeded 25% last week, with France’s month-on-month increase Close to 200%. In Portugal, the epidemic caused by the Omicron BA.5 subtype has further eased. Last week, there were 89,000 new confirmed cases in Portugal, falling below 100,000 for the first time in 6 weeks.

Among Asia-Pacific countries, South Korea had 52,000 new confirmed cases last week, continuing a downward trend. New Zealand The epidemic situation has significantly eased, with 35,000 new confirmed cases last week, a month-on-month decrease of 24.5%. Last week, India had 79,000 new confirmed cases, a 16-week high and a week-on-week increase of 62.8%.

Last week, 8,011 new cases were diagnosed in South Africa, a 7-month low and a record low since the emergence of the Omicron variant.

U.S. consumer spending is slowing amid high inflation.According to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, U.S. retail and food sales (seasonally adjusted) increased by 8.1% year-on-year in May, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.3%, entering the contraction range for the first time this year. Higher prices have supported the expansion of consumer spending at nominal prices. If price changes are excluded, U.S. retail and food sales (seasonally adjusted) year-on-year growth have been in contraction territory for three consecutive months.

On the other hand, U.S. industrial activity continues to expand. According to Federal Reserve data, the U.S. industrial production index increased by 5.8% year-on-year in May. This growth rate was nearly five times the average growth rate in 2018-2019 before the epidemic. In terms of industries, production activities in major industries such as mining, manufacturing, electric power and gas utilities are all expanding.

As U.S. consumer demand weakens, the expansion of industrial companies is expected to ease the imbalance between supply and demand, which will reduce inflationary pressure in the United States. The U.S. core CPI has shown signs of slowing down year-on-year in the past three months. In May, core CPI increased by 6.0% year-on-year, down 0.4 percentage points from the highs in February and March.

However, the recovery of output in the U.S. upstream raw materials industry is relatively lagging, and the output of the mining industry in May has not yet returned to the 2019 average level. This has driven up the price of raw materials to a certain extent. In May, the year-on-year growth rates of PPI in the U.S. oil and gas extraction and mining industry (excluding oil and gas extraction) were 107.5% and 22.6% respectively, both higher than the year-on-year growth rate of all commodities PPI (21.5%). The final demand PPI is 10.8% year-on-year. Under the pressure of rising costs and prices, the current round of U.S. inflation may become more sticky.

Global epidemic data chart

• Panorama

• Europe

Last week, 1.407 million new cases were diagnosed in developed countries in Europe, a week-on-week increase of 42.8%, which has been rising for three consecutive weeks. Among the major developed countries in Europe, the week-on-week growth rate of new cases in Germany (403,000 new cases), France (333,000 new cases), and Italy (226,000 new cases) all exceeded 25% last week, with France’s month-on-month increase Close to 200%. In Portugal, the epidemic caused by the Omicron BA.5 subtype has further eased. Last week, there were 89,000 new confirmed cases in Portugal, falling below 100,000 for the first time in 6 weeks.

• Americas

There were 730,000 new confirmed cases in the United States last week, which was roughly at the same level as the previous five weeks; according to estimates from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as of the week of June 11, Omicron BA.4, BA .5 subtype cases accounted for more than 20% of new cases, a 66% increase from the previous week. The epidemic in some South American countries is showing signs of easing. Last week, Brazil had 155,000 new cases, the lowest in four weeks.

• Asia-Pacific

Among Asia-Pacific countries, South Korea had 52,000 new confirmed cases last week, continuing a downward trend. The epidemic situation in New Zealand has significantly eased, with 35,000 new confirmed cases last week, a month-on-month decrease of 24.5%. Last week, India had 79,000 new confirmed cases, a 16-week high and a week-on-week increase of 62.8%.

• Africa

Last week, 8,011 new cases were diagnosed in South Africa, a 7-month low, setting a new low since the emergence of the Omicron variant.

• China

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Text | Ma Shaozhi Researcher of China First Financial Research Institute

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