National Bureau of Statistics data shows that in May 2022, the prices of gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas increased by 27.6%, 30.1% and 26.9% respectively year-on-year, becoming the main influencing factors of the price index increase in May. On Thursday (June 9), New York local time, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) futures for July delivery rose by $2.7, or 2.26%, to close at $122.11 per barrel. Some Chinese domestic experts predict that international oil prices may soon exceed US$150. As for the reasons for the continued rise in international and domestic oil prices, we have analyzed it many times, and experts from all walks of life have very good interpretations, so I will not repeat them here. Let me directly answer two practical questions that everyone is concerned about.
Will rising international and domestic oil prices bring opportunities to electric vehicles ? This has always been my point of view: whether oil prices rise or fall? Electric vehicles and electric self-driving vehicles are the trend in the future, and it is unstoppable to replace traditional oil vehicles. High oil prices only accelerate this replacement process! There is still no development trend of new energy vehicles in sight, and those who still buy petrol vehicles will regret it soon.
Electric vehicle battery has many pain points such as cruising range, charging speed, and low-temperature power loss. Manufacturers are accelerating the development of new technologies, and they will be completely solved in a year or two. Countries around the world, including the U.S. government, are increasing investment in the construction of charging facilities. In three to five years, charging will be more convenient and efficient than refueling.
This round of sharp rise in oil prices is a good time for the popularization and promotion of electric vehicles. At the same time, public transportation such as taxis and online ride-hailing vehicles, which have the greatest impact on the rise in oil prices, have no response because they have all been replaced by electric vehicles!
Since the beginning of this year, oil prices have continued to rise, and have experienced "nine increases and one decrease." Netizens lamented, "If you can afford a car, you can't afford to fill it up with gas." In the face of soaring oil prices, the increase in charging facilities, and the increasingly mature new technologies Energy vehicle products, more and more consumers are beginning to consider purchasing new energy vehicles.
We must see that the rigid effect of today's increase in oil prices has been greatly reduced because of the availability of alternatives to new energy vehicles. From an economic point of view, fuel vehicles are becoming more and more elastic to rising oil prices. Rising oil prices will encourage car owners to buy new energy vehicles or replace them with new energy vehicles.
Another question that needs to be answered is, will domestic oil prices follow the increase in international oil prices and increase indefinitely? The answer is of course no.
Article 7 of the national " Petroleum Price Management Measures ": When the international market crude oil price is lower than 80 US dollars per barrel, the price of refined oil shall be calculated based on the normal processing profit rate. When the price is higher than US$80 per barrel, the processing profit margin will be deducted until the price of refined oil is calculated based on zero processing profit. When the price is higher than US$130 per barrel, in accordance with the principle of taking into account the interests of producers and consumers and maintaining the smooth operation of the national economy, appropriate fiscal and taxation policies will be adopted to ensure the production and supply of refined oil. In principle, the prices of gasoline and diesel will not be mentioned or mentioned less. In other words, after the international oil price exceeds 130 US dollars, the domestic oil price should not continue to increase, and the price should be capped.
On January 13, 2016, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice deciding to further improve the refined oil price mechanism and set upper and lower limits for regulation. The upper limit of the regulation is US$130 per barrel, and the lower limit is US$40 per barrel. That is, when the international market oil price is higher than US$130 per barrel, the maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel is not mentioned or mentioned less; when it is lower than US$40, the maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel is The retail price does not decrease; when running between 40 US dollars and 130 US dollars, the domestic refined oil price mechanism adjusts normally, rising when it should rise and falling when it should fall.
From March to May 2020, international oil prices remained below US$40/barrel during these three months due to the epidemic. Domestic oil prices did not fall during that period. Beijing March 92, 2020 Gasoline starts at 5.5 yuan. On March 9, 2020, the international oil price was around US$34/barrel.
According to the National Development and Reform Commission’s announcement, in the price structure of my country’s refined oil products, raw material costs account for about 30%, various taxes and fees account for about 48%, refining costs and profits account for about 8%, and the rest are the operating costs and operating costs of traders and gas stations. profit. In other words, if the international oil price exceeds 130 US dollars and the domestic oil price is capped, there will be more room for tax reduction!
