This is Panda Beibei's 1108th original article:
html On June 2, the central bank and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange held a press conference to explain the financial policies deployed by the National Council to solidly stabilize the economy.
The background of this press conference is that on May 31, the State Council issued the " Package of Policies and Measures to Solidly Stabilize the Economy " (hereinafter referred to as the "Package of Policies and Measures"), proposing 33 measures in six aspects.
Image source: Government official website
Entering June, it not only means that the policy agreement time of "complete the supporting details and issue the supporting details before the end of May" has expired, but also means that various policies to stabilize the economy market will officially enter the comprehensive stage In the execution stage, full mobilization has been mobilized to win the economic battle in June.
In the context of insufficient effective demand, the 33 policy packages aim to create consumption and investment demand, such as creating consumer demand through home appliances and cars going to the countryside , house purchases, etc., and easing the reality through deferred principal and interest payments, tax reductions and refunds, etc. difficulties, and creating financing demand through infrastructure and major projects. At the same time, it also stabilizes foreign trade demand through a series of measures to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment.
The central bank is in charge of finance, and the finance department is in charge of money. The two major departments do not relax during the holidays. On the last working day before the Dragon Boat Festival, the efficiency is very high. can be said to have carried out practical responses and interpretations as soon as possible:
2022 June On March 2, the central bank and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange held a press conference to explain the financial policies deployed by the National Council to solidly stabilize the economy.
On June 2, 2022, the Ministry of Finance held a press conference and pointed out that 24 of the 33 policy packages directly involved fiscal functions .
This article will provide a key interpretation of the central bank and fiscal statements after the release of the national package of economic stabilization policies.
does not have difficult and difficult technical terminology, nor is it arrogant and divorced from reality. It focuses on the key points, speaks in plain language, and uses words and expressions that everyone can understand to conduct thematic analysis and related research.
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The central bank and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange spoke out: What content is directly related to people’s livelihood and the market? The content of the press release of
will not be elaborated here. It is a very standard official caliber, with precise wording and smoothness.
But objectively speaking, the vast majority of ordinary people do not have the ability to analyze policy documents and interpret official languages. This is a very important cognitive threshold.
Therefore, here are a few key contents directly related to the people's livelihood economy and the asset market, and these related contents can be found in the press release.
1. Central Bank: Continue to increase the implementation of sound monetary policy. , focusing on grasping the three principles
reserve requirement ratio reduction, handing over balance profits, two LPR ( loan market quotation rate ) "interest rate cuts", launching a number of structural monetary policy tools ... This year the central bank has introduced a series of policy measures Support the real economy.Pan Gongsheng, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that the Central Bank and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange will put forward and increase their efforts appropriately, continue to increase the implementation of prudent monetary policies, promote the implementation of a package of policies as soon as possible, and play a good role in stabilizing the economy and assisting enterprises. The policy effects of the bailout have kept the economy operating within a reasonable range.
He made it clear that the central bank and foreign exchange bureau should focus on grasping three principles when implementing monetary and credit policies:
First, while stabilizing economic growth, it is conducive to long-term sustainable economic development;
Second, while stabilizing economic growth, , maintain stable employment, stable prices and a balanced balance of international payments;
The third is to guide financial institutions to adhere to market-oriented and prudent operations while stabilizing economic growth, and effectively prevent financial risks.
Keywords: bailout, reasonable range, this is an obvious expression of maintaining stability and strengthening precise drip irrigation.
places special emphasis on principles, indicating that the red line awareness and prudent attitude remain unchanged, and there is no possibility of significant relaxation at the financial level. However, there is still room and possibility for downward adjustments in interest rates.
2. This time the deferred loan repayment policy is stronger and the support method is innovative, which is beneficial to the consumption of new energy vehicles and related industries.
Since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, banks have implemented deferred repayment policies at different stages. What is the difference this time? ? Zou Lan, director of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Department, who has just taken up his new post, said that the extension policy proposed by the National Council has several main features: greater policy support, emphasis on leveraging the bank's initiative, expanded policy benefits, and innovative support methods.
Talking about the benefits of the policy, Zou Lan said that this time the policy support targets have clearly increased the number of truck drivers who have been seriously affected by the epidemic, especially truck drivers who have received much attention, as long as they apply for loan extension and have no record of default. , with basic supporting materials such as driving license, the bank can grant an extension in accordance with market-oriented principles.
The Standing Committee of the State Council proposed that banks and enterprises should jointly postpone the principal and interest repayment of the 90 billion yuan in truck loans issued by central automobile enterprises. Zou Lan said that qualified banks that support the extension of truck loans for central enterprises will be included in the 100 billion yuan transportation and logistics re-loan support scope.
In terms of innovative support methods, Zou Lan said that currently about 60% of truck loan issuance entities are automobile group finance companies, automobile finance companies and financial leasing companies . The central bank guided three types of institutions to innovatively launch freight logistics-themed financial bonds, which are used to provide truck owners and related logistics companies with deferred loan principal and interest payments and support for continued and new investment funds to ensure that they can better implement policies.
Defer loan repayments, clearly specify the direction and field, and focus on new energy vehicles and trucks with the idea of stabilizing the economy.
This policy change is very critical. In the past, infrastructure and real estate were given priority.
3. Transaction activity in the real estate market has increased, and differentiated housing credit policies continue to be implemented.
Some time ago, due to the frequent outbreaks of the epidemic, real estate construction and marketing activities were hindered, and real estate market sales, loans and other data declined. However, Pan Gongsheng said that the current epidemic situation is gradually improving, the economic and social order is accelerating, and the activity of real estate market transactions is increasing. In the past two weeks, high-frequency data on the real estate market in many places has shown this trend.
Pan Gongsheng said that my country's urbanization is still in the development stage, and residents' families have great potential for improved housing, and the development model of both renting and purchasing has a lot of room for development. In the next step, the central bank will continue to adhere to the positioning of "housing is for living, not for speculation", and in accordance with the requirements of exploring new development models, implement differentiated housing credit policies based on city-specific policies to better meet the reasonable housing needs of home buyers, and steadily implement real estate finance. Prudently manage the system, accelerate the improvement of the housing leasing financial policy system, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
Housing is for living, not for speculation. The tone remains unchanged, differentiated credit control, and the state's cautious attitude towards real estate remains unchanged.
It is particularly worth mentioning that the property market in some cities has become restless at present, and the damage to confidence and expectations has been repaired to a certain extent. Naturally, some property market speculation and arguments advocating for skyrocketing housing prices have begun to appear, but in fact, the following is true: The attitude at the national financial level is actually very clear, that is, normal needs can be met, but speculation and arbitrage cannot. Otherwise, why differentiate?
4 and focus on key areas and provide financial support.
According to statistics, since April 2022, 440 billion yuan of re-loan tools have been launched at the policy level, including 200 billion yuan of re-loans for scientific and technological innovation, 100 billion yuan of re-loans in the transportation and logistics field, and 100 billion yuan of special projects to support the clean and efficient use of coal. Re-loan lines (a total of 300 billion yuan) and 40 billion yuan of re-loans in the inclusive elderly care sector. Among them, a total of 210.8 billion yuan has been issued for carbon emission reduction support tools and special reloans to support the clean and efficient utilization of coal. The expressions expressed at the
press conference mean that policy guidance in the field of credit extension will be strengthened, and support for key areas, key industries and key enterprises will be promoted through whitelist and other principles. The meaning of the
whitelist is industry reshuffle. The national financial support whitelist means that you can get low-cost and high-amount support from national credit. The key areas are not only new energy, agriculture, small and medium-sized enterprises, but also those directly related to the Chinese economy. Key industries, such as real estate, in mid-May, Country Garden , Longfor , and Midea Real Estate were selected by regulatory agencies as model real estate companies. They will issue bonds and activate protection tools in the near future. This is a typical case.
protects the head, clears out small and medium-sized industries with no advantages, creates head effects in key areas, and merges and shuffles in related areas.
The content related to foreign exchange and foreign investment has little direct relevance to the vast majority of ordinary Chinese people, so I will not analyze and interpret it here.
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The Ministry of Finance issued a statement: Where does the money baton point?
The central bank manages money, and the financial dad manages accounts. In fact, many people cannot see the essence of this logic:
central bank finance, manages market circulation, and cooperates with the invisible hand;
fiscal distribution, manages the flow of state-owned assets, and assists the visible hand.
Fiscal policies and attitudes directly determine where the country's capital will be directed. In the short term, we look at finance, in the medium term, we look at finance. For the longer term, it depends on the National Development and Reform Commission, the superior of the central government and finance father.
On June 2, 2022, the Ministry of Finance held a press conference. There are three main aspects worthy of attention:
excess tax refund, local special debts, and district and county finance.
1. Regarding the excess tax refund (its scientific name is "VAT refund preferential treatment", it means that the "input" VAT that cannot be deducted now and can be deducted in the future will be refunded in full in advance. It can be understood as Similar to the meaning of personal tax refund), it is directly related to the operating costs of large and small enterprises in the economic environment:
- The implementation time of the tax refund for medium-sized enterprises will be advanced from the third quarter of this year to May 1st, and centralized refunds will be made before June 30th;
- will advance the implementation time of large-scale enterprises’ existing tax refunds from the fourth quarter of this year to June 1, with centralized refunds before June 30, so that the policy effects can be released in the first half of the year.
fully reflects the attitude of the national finance to make efforts in advance.
2. Local special bonds: issued before the end of June and basically used by the end of August.
From January to May this year, a total of 2.03 trillion new special bonds have been issued by various localities (the annual quota is 3.65 trillion). The Standing Committee of the State Council clearly requires that this year's new special bonds be basically issued by the end of June (that is, about 1.62 trillion yuan will be issued in June), and the intensity will be basically used by the end of August.
At the same time, project units will also be guided to connect with commercial banks. For projects that still have remaining funds after repaying the principal and interest of special bonds, they can apply for market-based supporting financing. After all, these projects are also designed to create financing needs.
Special bonds are a type of local government bonds, which refer to bonds issued to raise funds for the construction of a specific project. The difference between special bonds (revenue bonds) and general bonds (ordinary bonds) is that the former refers to bonds issued to raise funds to build a specific project, while the latter refers to bonds issued by local governments to ease financial constraints or solve temporary funding shortfalls. of bonds.
Speed up the issuance of special bonds and limit the use time. On the one hand, it prevents local governments from borrowing special bond funds for their own financial bailouts. On the other hand, it is obvious to provide relief for work and local debt investment to stimulate the economy. Main line of thought.
3. District and county finance: County-level focus, municipal-level assistance, provincial-level support, central incentives
District and county finance has been a hot topic in the market recently. This year, the central government has transferred nearly 9.80 trillion yuan in support to local governments (an increase of about 1.50 trillion yuan year-on-year) ), the Ministry of Finance has made it clear that it will solve the financial difficulties of districts and counties in accordance with the principle of "county-level priority, municipal-level assistance, provincial-level support, and central incentives", that is, the financial operations of organized counties (including county-level cities) will be controlled by the provincial-level finance department. The main responsibility for the financial operations of municipal districts is the local city.
Considering that the economic core represented by Shanghai has been hit by the epidemic and needs to recover, as well as the possibility of dealing with uncertain risks at home and abroad, the national fiscal thinking is very clear: local fiscal control is hierarchical, and the national centralized power and funds are more needed. In this direction, financial support for small cities, especially cities below the county level, will decrease significantly.
Generally speaking, the national financial baton, this time, mainly focuses on grasping the big, letting go of the small, and concentrating efforts. After all, only when the leading cities, core cities, industries and concentrated economic areas can recover and have a surplus, can we talk about it. on macroeconomic stability.
This is the same as the logic of "rescuing the people first, saving the officials" when encountering disasters in ancient times: first concentrate on stabilizing the economic leaders, and then go to help the world.
It is a visible trend that first-tier cities, big cities, major industries and leading economic regions will receive priority from national finance and related policy support.
In other words, in many small cities and edge cities, the real economic winter may last for some time.
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Trend Analysis: In June, can China’s economy usher in a strong recovery and comprehensive rebound?
From the latest statements from the central bank and the finance department, in fact, the follow-up ideas and directions for stabilizing the country's economy have been very clear. Let's take an inventory:
1. The steady and prudent financial attitude remains unchanged. There is still some room for targeted interest rate cuts and targeted RRR cuts in the future. It is possible, but it is impossible to achieve rapid currency expansion in the short term due to floods.
For the asset and financial fields, stock mining and survival priority are the main ideas.
2. Tax rebates cannot solve the essential problems of insufficient demand in the economic environment and damage to confidence expectations. The significance of cost reduction is far less than the recovery of cash flow . Therefore, in addition to tax rebates, local governments take the lead in consumption (consumer coupon model) to stimulate the market and revitalize the economy. It is a direction with high probability.
is good for consumption.
3. Real estate is mainly based on real demand, and the demand for non-essential home purchases will be gradually relaxed. However, the red line of housing for living and not for speculation is not allowed to be touched. This means that the function of real estate economy 's national financial expansion channel is still not available. Get a reboot.
does not have much realistic imagination about subsequent housing prices. Everything is based on demand. The real estate economy has not received substantial financial tilt this time. This round of economic recovery no longer focuses on real estate.
4, the national transportation industry will usher in an important stage of foundation building and explosion. Corresponding to
, it will stimulate relevant sectors of the financial market and achieve the purpose of stabilizing the economy in disguise.
Based on the above analysis, we can draw the following conclusions about the trend of China's economy next and in the second half of 2022:
First of all, it is inevitable that China's economy will enter the recovery stage, but this time there will not be any violent rebound. The country The idea is very clear that it is to treat acute diseases in a slow manner and treat the symptoms and root causes, rather than forceful stimulation. Since
has no strong stimulus, it is impossible to have a short-term violent rebound.
Secondly, it is led by the state. For many industries and industries, there is an obvious consideration of good money driving out bad money. Taking the Internet and real estate as examples, the trend of reshuffling and liquidation will continue.
Finally, it is the realization of the economic growth target. A signal worthy of attention is that the National Bureau of Statistics will begin nationwide rectification of "data filling and falsification" in various places in May, superimposed on the impact of the epidemic at the beginning of 2022, as well as complex external factors Regarding the environment, the focus of efforts in China's economic aggregate and growth areas in 2022 must be concentrated on the national transportation industry, industries, industries, and companies that are controllable by the state and participated by state-owned assets.
From an overall point of view, the hot and cold conditions are uneven, with initial decline and then increase, and prominent key points, which will become the macroeconomic characteristics of the whole year of 2022.
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Written at the end:
Analyze and discuss several risks and difficulties that China may encounter in the subsequent economic recovery
It is not enough to understand the country's thinking and see clearly the trends and directions.
A very critical point is to have a full understanding and prediction of the risks and difficulties that may be encountered in the process of achieving goals and achieving recovery.
Process costs are bound to exist. At the end of the article, from a micro and realistic perspective, I will talk about several risks and difficulties that I may encounter in the subsequent process of China's economic recovery and rebound, and my views and opinions. Not necessarily correct, just for discussion and reference.
1. Be wary of the collapse effect of the real estate economy in small and medium-sized cities. The real bubbles in China’s real estate economy are concentrated in small and medium-sized cities. Why do you say this?
Because these small and medium-sized cities lack real and industrial economic growth, their economic fundamentals are fragile, and even the debts from the past housing reform stage have not been fully digested. The economic transformation of urban real estate still needs to rely on the "wave of returning home buyers" to achieve.
Looking at many core cities with high housing prices, in fact, as long as local industries and real economic growth can be restored, housing prices can be supported by demand and purchasing power.
Therefore, when China's economy is fully recovering, the weakest areas are actually the vast number of small and medium-sized cities that are highly dependent on land finance and lack their own economic growth.
Especially in 2022, under the inevitable trend that the national level can only maintain the big and let go of the small, mainly taking care of the head cities, the risks of the real estate economy in these cities will inevitably become obvious.
2. The epidemic is still a visible risk and threat that cannot be avoided. Not only do we need to internally eliminate behaviors that are detrimental to the country’s wealth during the economic recovery stage, we must also be wary of external imports or the threat of deliberately spreading poisoning.
Therefore, both individuals and collectives must fully cooperate and support the country's anti-epidemic policy. Problems in the process are the responsibility of national management. Only by uniting the whole people and achieving unified cognition can the threat and impact of the epidemic be minimized.
After all, there is no specific medicine yet, and there are all kinds of weird viruses with unknown origins and evil intentions on the periphery.
The string of fighting the epidemic cannot be loosened.
We must be especially wary of the extreme actions that the United States may take due to its own economic risks and domestic conflicts and the need for external transfers.
After all, in 1970, at the end of the war to resist U.S. aggression and aid Korea, the United States went crazy and airdropped a large number of viruses to the areas where the Chinese Volunteer Army was located in order to reverse the decline on the battlefield. I will write a special article to review and analyze this when I have time.
With the current threat of the epidemic, we must not be careless.
3, confidence and expectations are still the biggest difficulties in China's economic recovery.
To save real estate and boost the stock market, this time it is not the country’s first choice. This is actually a good thing: the prosperity that is simply caused by monetary stimulus will take a long time and process to digest and pay for it. This is why
has the performance of economic control of "treating acute illnesses slowly, taking care of them slowly, treating the symptoms and root causes, and ensuring stability".
Domestic capital, which has been spoiled by the rapid economic growth in the past 20 years, has a large amount of wealth. How to inspire confidence and expectations and be willing to invest and expand business is an important issue that the country must be considering at the moment.
If there is water in the upstream, there will be drinking water only in the downstream. Only when incomes rise, labor positions will increase, and consumption will rise will things come naturally.
speaks through the country, grasps the essence, and sees trends. At the same time, we cannot ignore the process costs, as well as the risks and difficulties that may be encountered.
In 2022, China will surely make steady progress and seek progress while maintaining stability!
encourage each other.
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(According to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, the content and opinions of this article are for reference only and do not constitute any clear advice on property purchase, investment and other behaviors. Enter the market at your own risk.)
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