The actual annualized GDP of the United States in the first quarter increased by 6.4% from the initial quarter-on-quarter value, which is expected to be 6.1%, and the previous value was 4.3%; the initial value of the GDP deflator in the first quarter was 4.1%, which was expected to be 2.6%, and the previous value was 2%.
First-quarter data shows that the U.S. economy is not only recovering but also showing signs of overheating. Strong monetary and fiscal stimulus policies have caused a V-shaped reversal in the U.S. economy. The growth rate of GDP in the first quarter was the second fastest since the third quarter of 2003. The fastest growth occurred in the third quarter of last year. Unlimited QE has stimulated consumption in the United States. Coupled with the expectations of vaccine sowing and new infrastructure plans, the U.S. economy has rapidly rebounded, which has also brought about a rapid rise in U.S. inflation .
1. Inflation expectations in the United States have increased
The preliminary value of the PCE price index in the United States in the first quarter rose by 3.5% on an annualized basis, and the previous value rose by 1.5%; the preliminary value of the core PCE price index rose by 1.5% year-on-year, a new high since the first quarter of last year. , the previous value rose 1.4%; the annualized month-on-month increase was 2.3%, and the previous value rose 1.3%; the initial value of actual personal consumption expenditures rose 10.7% month-on-month, a new high since the third quarter of last year, and is expected to rise 10.5%, and the previous value rose 2.3%.
Excessive monetary and fiscal policies have led to a rapid increase in personal consumption expenditures in the United States, pushing prices to rise rapidly. The core inflation rate has also continued to rise. Due to statistical problems, the core inflation rate has not yet reached the target, but judging from the overall CPI and PCE data in the United States , the inflation rate in the United States is obviously accelerating.
Economic growth and inflation data both show that the Fed has the need to shrink its balance sheet and should gradually reduce the scale of radical stimulus. However, the Fed is currently obsessed with employment data and still aims at full employment, so it continues to maintain the zero interest rate range. With monthly bond purchases of $120 billion.
Judging from the latest U.S. initial unemployment claims data, the decline in the number of unemployed people has been hampered by the epidemic. However, solving the employment problem is, after all, a medium- to long-term process. If the U.S.’s current economic growth rate and inflation rate rise, if the U.S. reaches If there is full employment, not only will inflation far exceed the Fed's target, but also the asset bubbles in the United States will be immortalized.
2. The core PCE of the United States is suspected of being fake
Although the core PCE of the United States has reached a new high since the first quarter of last year, I question the authenticity of this data. Judging from the U.S. CPI and PCE and other data, and judging from the inflation expectations of the international and U.S. markets Judging from the above, the core PCE in the United States is obviously suspected of being artificially depressed, and this move undoubtedly leaves room for US stocks to continue to wander at high levels, with a strong purpose. To put it bluntly, the U.S.’s economic data has been repeatedly falsified in the past three years and has been exposed by the market many times. The U.S.’s use of economic data to deliberately influence the trend of international financial markets has become more and more frequent, which has continuously reduced the credibility of the United States.
Before the U.S. released PCE data on Thursday, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yields had risen sharply, and the market's inflation expectations were extremely strong. However, just after that, the core PCE data was tepid, and the 10-year Treasury bond yields had risen sharply. U.S. bond yields have subsequently converged, which is obviously no coincidence.
Since April, in order to prevent the U.S. stock market from being impacted by the rise in U.S. bond yields, the Federal Reserve and Wall Street have been working hard to regulate the 10-year U.S. bond yield to prevent the U.S. bond yield from stabilizing at 1.7% prematurely, causing the market to The emergence of stronger inflation expectations has burst asset bubbles such as U.S. stocks, so the U.S. government has a clear motive for fraud. This also shows that both the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government have become veritable vassals of Wall Street.
3. The Federal Reserve’s persistence makes Wall Street more purposeful
Although the Federal Reserve has long regarded inflation and employment as the dual goals of monetary policy control, the Federal Reserve must also take into account economic growth and financial market security. These two points are actually part of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy Important reference items, and the current asset bubble problem in the United States is very serious, debt bubble + stock market bubble + real estate bubble + financial derivatives bubble + commodities structural bubble. If coupled with high inflation stimulus, the risk of the US financial market It is obvious.
Judging from the four indicators of economic growth, core inflation, employment data and financial security, the Federal Reserve should undoubtedly gradually reduce its bond purchase plan and gradually withdraw its strong stimulus policy. However, I am afraid that this process will not be visible in the first half of the year. Market expectations The Fed will only make new choices in the second half of this year, and is expected to gradually reduce its stimulus policy by the end of the year or early next year.
Regarding the issue of the Federal Reserve abandoning the three major indicators and focusing on employment data, I have done analysis before. The fundamental purpose of the Federal Reserve is not the long-term safe operation of the U.S. economy. Strictly speaking, the upward trend of the U.S. economy is just a sign of U.S. financial capital. The Federal Reserve The fundamental purpose of the unlimited QE policy is to join forces with Wall Street to shear the world's wool, create global inflation through malicious dollar exports, create false economic prosperity and high asset bubbles around the world, and thereby loot global wealth.
Today’s world is in an international currency trap represented by the US dollar. It is a comprehensive transfer of debt crisis from developed economies to developing economies. This means that global financial risks are getting higher and higher, and developed economies The persistence of the economy's unlimited QE policy and the tightening of monetary policies in some emerging economies illustrate the seriousness of this problem. It is no exaggeration to say that after entering the second quarter of this year, more and more developing countries will have to enter the financial defense war process, otherwise the crisis will be compounded. (This article is an original article by Xinyue Shuo Finance. When reprinting, please indicate the author and source from the headline number Xinyue Shuo Finance)
