Economic Observer Network reporter Qian Yujuan In the late trading of Hong Kong stocks on the afternoon of July 26, Kuaishou (1024.HK) fell below the IPO issue price of HK$115/share for the first time, reaching a low of HK$112.6/share. , closing at HK$114 per share, a drop of 11.97%.
As for the stock price trend, some investors in the comment area of Futu Niuniu attributed it to a piece of news - Kuaishou was listed as a co-sponsored broker Morgan Stanley lowered the target price from 300 Hong Kong dollars per share. 50 Hong Kong dollars per share, the rating was downgraded from "overweight" to "sell".
Economic Observer Network reporter saw that the above news was still spreading on social networks. In response, a relevant person within Kuaishou replied, "It has been confirmed with and Dalian . It is false news."
Reporter Before going to press, Kuaishou officially announced that after verification with Morgan Stanley , analysts confirmed that the content of the above-mentioned so-called research report was "completely untrue" and had communicated with a large number of investors who were disturbed by this false news. and clarification.
reporters obtained a research report from Morgan Stanley on July 23 on reducing the target price of Kuaishou from a brokerage analyst, which showed that the target price of Kuaishou was reduced to HK$120. The analyst also said that this is the second time Morgan Stanley has lowered Kuaishou’s target price since July. Earlier on July 9, Kuaishou’s target price was lowered by 56.67% from HK$300 to HK$130. Although the news that
had been slashed to HK$50 was proven to be false news, Kuaishou still faced a fact that cannot be ignored. Less than half a year after its listing, the stock price fell 72.66% from its highest point, directly falling below the issue price and total market value. It has also evaporated more than HK$1.26 trillion from its highest point, and its market value is now only about HK$474.3 billion.
Regarding the possible influencing factors behind the stock price trend, an analyst from Northeast Securities first mentioned that the overall mood of the Internet industry environment has been generally depressed recently, and then settled on Kuaishou itself. The analyst also told reporters, "The decline is also related to the user growth of the Kuaishou platform being less than expected."
data shows that in the first quarter of this year, the average daily active users of Kuaishou's Chinese applications and mini-programs reached 379.2 million, a year-on-year increase of 26.4% and a month-on-month increase of 20.0%. . Regarding the increase in users gained by Kuaishou during the Spring Festival, analysts from Northeast Securities believe that "can the incremental users be retained?" is its problem in the second quarter.
After Kuaishou's DAU began to fall in March, it further verified the above-mentioned Northeast Securities analyst's concerns about Kuaishou's user scale, saying that "retention is relatively poor."
Although Kuaishou CEO Su Hua revealed at the end of June that "Kuaishou's global monthly active users have reached 1 billion." However, in the second quarter when user growth is in the off-season, Jefferies published a research report expecting Kuaishou's MAU (monthly Number of active users) and DAU (number of daily active users) will decrease slightly compared to the previous quarter to 509 million users and 289 million users respectively.
Northeast Securities analysts told reporters that in the second quarter guidance made after the previous quarterly report, Kuaishou's user volume was originally flat month-on-month. Now, judging from the forward-looking data in the relevant research report, it is "falling back quarter-on-quarter." In this analyst’s view, the decline in Kuaishou’s stock price is not unrelated to the trend of declining user scale.
