If吴三桂 If you don’t switch, can Man Qing enter the customs? To clarify this issue, first of all, let’s review it from 李自成 The process of breaking through Beijing to the entry of the Qing army:
Beijing was broken on March 19, but the Qing army did not know about it until early April. Their biggest discovery, , was the sudden retreat of the Guan Ning Army’s defenders in Ningyuan in March (the Ming court ordered Wu Sangui’s Guan Ning Army to abandon Ningyuan and enter the King Qin in Beijing) in March. Therefore, it is speculated that the invaders are strong, the Central Plains Change.
On the one hand, the Manchu Qing did not know that the Ming Dynasty was over, and Chongzhen was dead; but on the other hand, he also guessed that the Zhongyuan had changed and wanted to take advantage of the fire. So at the beginning, Duoergun and 范文程 planned to " first take down Beijing to hold Chongzhen, and obtain the righteous name to expel gangsters", that is, to become Cao Cao. This can be seen from Fan Wencheng’s play on the fourth day of April:
Although our country competes with the Ming, the reality and the squad are also...彼明之君, knowing that my scale is not the same as the past. It is also unknown... "The Records of Qing Shizong" Volume Four
That is to say, at this time, the Manchu Dynasty still wanted to "reconcile" with Chongzhen, apparently he did not know that Chongzhen had died half a month ago.
From another aspect, it is also a proof that the original route of the Qing army's invasion is from Mongolia. If the Manchus knew the death of Ming Dynasty, how could they not surrender Wu Sangui? How can you not take the opportunity to seize Shanhaiguan? In fact, Huang Taiji and 祖大寿 had been recruiting Wu Sangui before his death.
Until the beginning of mid-April, when the Qing army marched to the left-wing Harqin tribe in Monan, the Qing Dynasty learned of the death of the Ming Dynasty, and at this time began to discuss the strength of the peasant army. However, the information of the Manchus came from Jiangjiang 洪承仓, which was estimated based on the experience of fighting the peasant army before 1642 (it is not known that the peasant army was reborn after 42 years), which eventually led to the Qing’s opposition to the peasant army. Seriously underestimated.
On the other side, when Li Zicheng entered Beijing, he also arranged a large number of his direct line soldiers and former Ming border troops at several Great Wall gates to guard against possible entry into the Qing Dynasty.
You can see that Li Zicheng’s arrangement is actually correct. If Dorgon continued to enter from the Great Wall according to the original plan, he would hit the copper wall and iron wall. After all, the combat effectiveness of Li Zicheng's peasant army and the reorganized frontier army has been greatly improved. Field combat may not be possible, but relying on the Guan to cause major damage to the Qing army is not a problem. More importantly, the pass is the most time-consuming battle. Once the Qing army is in the quagmire of the fortification, Dashun troops from all over the world will come to support them continuously. If this is true, the Qing army may give up entering the customs because of excessive losses.
Of course, we know that at this time, history has made a huge joke-Wu Sangui is cleared. As a result, Dorgon quickly changed the direction of attack from the Great Wall to Shanhaiguan. Shanhaiguan was the weak point of the Dashun Army, because no one had expected that Wu Sangui, who had promised to surrender, would surrender, and the Dashun Army who had originally gone to take over was expelled and defeated by Wu Sangui.
Li Zicheng originally didn't plan to go to Shanhaiguan, but after learning that Wu Sangui had returned to Qing Dynasty, he began to lead the main force to Shanhaiguan himself.
We are all familiar with the following plot-the Dashun army is fully fired, and after a day of bloody battle with Wu Sangui, in Dashun When the veterans of the military division were tired, the Qing army waiting to work with one hundred thousand + fifty thousand Wu Sangui army vs the exhausted sixty thousand Dashun army. Dashun Army was defeated.
Now go back and review the game. What if Wu Sangui does not surrender 清朝?
1. Dorgon will lead the Qing army to continue marching towards the Great Wall Pass, and then hit the Tianluodi net of the Dashun army. The Qing army is very powerful.Strong, but the Dashun Army has a good location, people and buff. The worst result of the Qing army was to fall into a bitter battle and suffer heavy losses, and then look at the continuous flow of Dashun army, but reluctant to withdraw to Shengjing; the best result was to defeat the Dashun army after a bloody battle, and then enter the pass with injuries. .
2, the previous one, the Qing army entered the Great Wall with injuries. At this time, Wu Sangui did not surrender, and Li Zicheng would not go to Shanhaiguan. The main force of the Shun army was assembled near Beijing, and a battle with the Shun army would be launched near the capital. At this time, the main force of the Qing army was about 100,000, and the Shun army had about 80,000 troops. If the former Ming army could be mobilized, it would be even more. In this situation, even if it is a poor ending, the Shun Army can use Beijing’s strong city advantage and 20 red cannons to defend. The best ending of the Qing army is to plunder like the previous entry. Fan, the worst outcome was tens of thousands of casualties, and he retired sadly.
3. Suppose again that if the Qing army did not attack the Great Wall but instead attacked Shanhaiguan, it would face the coalition forces of Wu Sangui and Li Zicheng (pay attention to the question, Wu Sangui will not surrender to the Qing). In this situation, the disadvantages of the Qing army were brought to the extreme: first, the Qing army was not superior in strength; secondly, the Shun Wu coalition army had a strong city to rely on. Even if it is the best ending-the Shunwu coalition forces choose the field, the Qing army wins the field battle, then the Qing army also loses-because in this case the Qing army's casualties must be several times the standard plane, you must know that Man Qingqing The number of soldiers in the country is less than a hundred thousand, and the Eight Banners of Manchuria have only 50,000. Even if the Qing army wins the battlefield, they can only return to Shengjing to lick their wounds.
For the Manchu Qing, no matter how much he achieved, as long as he suffered tens of thousands of casualties, he would lose. Under such circumstances, can the Qing army enter the Pass?
But Dashun is not the Ming Dynasty that has been corrupted. Dashun is a new dynasty. Even if there are tens of thousands of casualties, it can continue to organize the army after the Pingding Pass, and fight the Songjin with the Manqing. Battle, but the Qing army’s combatable soldiers were limited. No matter how strong the Qing army is, it can't fight such a war of attrition, and the final outcome will not be any better than Ge Erdan.
So the conclusion is that if Wu Sangui does not switch, there is a chance for the Manchu to enter the customs, but it is a very low probability event to annex the Central Plains in one fell swoop and establish the Qing Dynasty.
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