The long river of history is vast, and the evolution of human society is always accompanied by war and peace.
In the past 5,000 years of history, China has been at the core of the world. Until modern times, due to the weak and incompetent Qing government, China has taken many important development opportunities to measure and faced the danger of national destruction.
In this process, the world is not peaceful. Human beings have experienced two world wars and countless local conflicts and wars. Until today, there are still sporadic conflicts in the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East, and all of this is related to the United States.
The United States made its fortune in World War I and rose in World War II . After the war, it led Western countries to lead the establishment of international order and financial order. On this basis, relying on its own strong comprehensive national strength, it constantly plunders resources from other countries through war, finance, technology and other means.
Of course, no matter how powerful a master is, he cannot defeat the boxing. In order to continuously maintain his hegemony around the world, the United States has joined forces with the to join forces with and began to raise trouble in various regions, taking advantage of historical, geography, religion and other issues between countries to create conflicts and make profits from it.
Therefore, most countries, especially developing and underdeveloped countries, are very disgusted with the despicable behavior of the United States, and even have extreme anti-American countries such as North Korea, Cuba , Iran , Venezuela .
However, despite this, the United States is still domineering and does not know how to restrain itself.
Many people hope that the United States can completely decline, and even hope that tomorrow will see the United States fall apart and disappear completely from the ranks of world powers.
However, unexpectedly, the famous American strategist and politician Kissinger said:
If the United States falls, no one can think of a good life.
What's going on?
What Kissinger said once the United States falls, it means that the United States suddenly declines, even breaks apart, and loses its control over the world order. What he said is that the world will usher in turmoil means that several countries may launch wars after the United States' influence completely disappears. They are Russia, Japan, Iran and Israel .
makes the above statement because Kissinger believes that it is precisely because of the strong pressure and sanctions from the United States and Western allies that the Russian economy cannot develop, and based on this, Russia's military strength is subject to a certain restraint.
If the U.S. factors disappear, sanctions will also disappear, and Russia will rise rapidly, and it is possible that in a short period of time, with its strong economic and military capabilities, the gap in the United States will be filled. Moreover, Kissinger believes that Russia is more aggressive, so it will have an impact on world stability.
As for Japan, Kissinger believes that without the constraints of the United States, Japanese militarism will be completely restored, and then it will use the relevant military technology and existing strategic reserve resources that it has mastered to rise rapidly, posing a huge threat to Asian security.
And Iran and Israel have always had a very tense relationship. For a long time, the United States has unilaterally supported Israel and even acquiesced to Israel to become a nuclear country. It has long deployed strong military forces in Persian Gulf region to deter Iran. If the U.S. factors disappear, Iran will be fearless and develop rapidly.
By that time, the long-standing conflict between Iran and Israel will quickly turn into large-scale wars.
What is even more terrifying is that Middle East is a powder keg, and there are also conflicts between Israel and Arab countries, and it is a strong religious contradiction. Israel has nuclear weapon . Once it is seriously threatened, it is very likely to detonate nuclear war .
Based on the above points, Kissinger believes that although the United States has begun to decline and its overall national strength has declined, if the United States falls completely, world peace will be severely impacted. The implication is that although the United States is not good, the world without the United States will be even worse.
I cannot fully agree with Kissinger's view.If you want to think clearly about the changes in the international pattern and order in the post-American era, you must figure out why the United States declined, what are the impacts of the United States on the world order, and what are the ways. Only then can we analyze where the world order will go after the disappearance of the American factors.
First of all, we need to figure out why the United States has declined. There are many ways in which the United States dominates the world order, the most important of which are economic, military and political. The United States has a certain special advantage in the above fields.
However, everything will be reversed. It is precisely because the United States can do whatever it wants in the financial field by relying on the international financial system with the US dollar as the core, so it has developed the problem of being lazy and lazy. In addition, at the end of the last century, its extremely wrong de-industrialization strategy formulated, which led to frequent financial crisis in the US.
In recent years, the United States has adopted indiscriminate sanctions against countries around the world under the banner of "America First", resulting in serious hindering of the process of economic globalization and may even face the risk of retrograde. This also hurts the United States, the world's largest importer.
Due to the sudden outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the international trade channel and the global manufacturing order were severely impacted, and eventually the US inflation rate remained high, and this time it could not be transferred smoothly. In turn, the US debt scale has increased sharply, the ability to repay debts has begun to decline, and there are signs of a debt crisis.
As a global financial center, the United States, once a debt default occurs, its own credit will decline rapidly. The United States, which has lost its international trust, naturally cannot provide strong support for the US dollar. Therefore, the international financial and trade system with the US dollar as the core will tend to collapse.
On this basis, the United States' military R&D, manufacturing, production and other capabilities will also be seriously affected. If both the US military and American technology decline, the US dollar will further lose its coercive power, thus declining the United States' comprehensive national strength and international influence.
After the US's influence declines, the system with the United States as its core ally will face collapse, because without the United States, Western countries, especially European countries and some Middle East and Central Asian countries, will lose their backing. For small and medium-sized countries, they must re-select sidelines.
This is the entire process of the decline of the United States. In the final analysis, it is caused by the United States’ own strategic misjudgment, the major strategic mistakes it has made, and the combined role of policies that do not meet the theme of the times and the development needs of various countries. Judging from the current situation, this trend is inevitable.
However, we should also see that as the only superpower in the world today and in the future, the United States is still relatively strong in strength. Although it will decline, it is a slow process. If the United States no longer makes major strategic mistakes, this process may last for decades, or even longer.
After understanding the process and reasons for the decline of the United States, let’s analyze what chain reactions will occur if the United States falls suddenly, and what impact will it have on the world pattern and order. We analyze it from three aspects: finance, military and political.
First, financial aspects. If the United States suddenly falls, it will have a serious impact on the international financial order. There is no doubt about this.
Although the United States uses the special status of the US dollar to continuously flee various countries, this makes the central banks and governments of all countries in the world very disgusted, but for the international financial order, "it is better than not."
Although countries have recognized the ugly face of the United States and have begun to try to establish new bilateral and multilateral economic and trade relations, based on the sovereign currencies of various countries and the international common currency in the IMF Special Drawing Rights basket, the process takes a long time and the future is unclear. The reason why
USD is so strong is not only because the strong overall strength of the United States has provided support for it, but more importantly, it has been widely recognized by countries around the world.
On the one hand, everyone believes that the value of the US dollar is relatively fixed and the ups and downs can be predicted. On the other hand, countries, including the SWIFT system, have generally formed institutional and institutional dependence on the US dollar system.
At this time, if the United States suddenly falls, the US dollar suddenly disappears, or the support force behind the US dollar suddenly disappears, it will lead to cliff-like turmoil in the international financial order and international trade , which is not good for all countries, but at the same time it will accelerate the process of forming a new order between all countries.
This is a double-edged sword. Although the process is painful, there is not no solution.
Second, military aspect. The US military has always boasted of being a "world policeman". No matter where there is a problem, its military power will pay attention to it as soon as possible. aircraft carrier battle group , a symbol of the navy of a great power, has been deployed to major waters in the world.
In addition, the United States inherited most of the British overseas military bases after World War II, resulting in the US military's global troop projection ability reaching the world's first level.
Based on this, countries including Japan, Iran, Russia, etc., as well as European countries, have indeed felt the strength of the US military. Most of these countries feel the strong deterrence and pressure of the US military.
Many people believe that the European, American, Japanese and American alliances, these countries feel the support of the United States, but this is not the case.
Japan has always had its own ambitions. The United States turned a blind eye to Japan on some issues for its own interests, but when it comes to key issues, the US garrison played a role in supervising Japan's right-wing forces.
Similarly, European countries have always wanted to make independent decisions in military, diplomatic and economic terms, but the United States does not allow any confrontational risks within its traditional sphere of influence, so it has always controlled them in all aspects under the banner of helping European countries maintain security and led their policy decisions.
So, if the U.S. factors suddenly disappear, especially military force disappears, Japan will lose control in a short period of time, Russia can also breathe a sigh of relief, European countries will step up their own integration, and to a certain extent, there will be short-term turmoil in the international order.
3, politics. After the fall of the United States, its political influence will completely disappear.
As we mentioned above, European countries will quickly advance the integration process, Asian countries will also begin to integrate, the US allied system completely collapses, and NATO may no longer exist. This is at least not a bad thing for international peace.
As for the war issue that Kissinger mentioned, I think we need to look at it from two aspects.
First, which regions or countries will have a higher risk of war? Is there a way to solve it? Second, which regions or countries will have a decrease in the risk of war breaking out? Why?
Objectively speaking, the risk of war between Iran and Israel will increase, because both countries are in a state of hostility, and the possibility of independent war is very high, especially since Israel has nuclear weapons, so the risk of global nuclear war will increase.
In addition, the risk of a war breaking out between China, Japan, Russia and Japan will increase. For China and Japan, if Japan acts as a pioneer in the conflict in the Taiwan Strait and interferes in China's internal affairs, China will definitely take action to resolve Japan once and for all.
The conflict between Russia and Japan is more complicated because there is still territorial dispute between Russia and Japan, and Japan has long followed the United States to contain Russia, and Russia has the persistence to obtain , not frozen port , so the possibility of a war between the two countries is greater than that between China and Japan.
However, we must also see that in the post-US era, the possibility of conflicts between South Korea and North Korea will decrease.
Since North Korea has stronger capabilities than South Korea in terms of military capabilities and people's will, if the US checks and balances disappear, South Korea is likely to choose to reconcile with North Korea, sign a peace treaty, and make unified arrangements for the future of the Korean Peninsula.
In addition, the possibility of conflicts between Russia and NATO and Russia and EU countries will be reduced.
Now there is a tense between Russia and Europe, mainly instigated by the United States. European countries are very dependent on Russia in terms of energy, and Europe's leaders France and Germany both hope to improve relations with Russia and safeguard their own interests.
However, the United States uses the method of triggering third-party conflicts and enforces European countries to participate in the policies formulated by it to sanction Russia, which has intensified the distrust relationship between Russia and European countries. The United States has also continuously used history to attack European countries, thus making the relationship between Russia and Europe more tense.
Although the risk of war between Iran and Israel, China, Japan, Russia and Japan will increase, we must also see that the risk of war between China and Japan has no necessary connection with the United States' failure. It mainly depends on whether Japan will interfere in China's internal affairs.
. China will play a stable role in the war risks in the other two aspects, and there is a way to solve them.
In fact, China has a very important role.
In terms of finance and trade, the RMB already has independent pricing power for the oil spot and futures markets. That is to say, the RMB can partially replace the role of the US dollar. If the euro is combined, the RMB-Euro system will become the basis for the formation of the international financial and trade settlement monetary system in the post-US era, thereby slowing down the impact of the US dollar's disappearance on the global financial order.
In terms of military conflict, China and Iran have reached a key agreement, and the prospects for future cooperation between the two countries are unlimited. In addition, China and Israel have close cooperation, especially in the -meter-wave radar , drones, etc., so China has the ability to mediate the military conflict between Iran and Israel.
In terms of politics and world order, emerging countries represented by China will adjust the international order to meet the development needs of various countries and the objective laws of the market. In this way, after the fall of the United States, the turbulent period of the international order will be greatly shortened.
In short, the argument that Kissinger said that once the United States falls, the world will usher in war. The demise of the country occurred frequently in human history, and so far, only Chinese civilization has not been interrupted.
We will not discuss whether Kissinger's words have personal emotions, but at least we can continue until the United States or not, and the world will continue to operate the same thing, and the pace of human progress will not stop.
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