Everything exists for a certain reason, there is a certain cause and effect, history (evolution) cannot be assumed or taken for granted!
Xiaoben believes that if Zhugeliang ceases to expedition to the north after the death of Shu, it will die faster, and there will be no chance of hibernating to . Eight Kings of Chaos , Five Random China is still the same!
Let's assume and reverse the history:
First, the five chaotic China is the biggest crisis of the Chinese nation; but its roots are the Central Plains Dynasty (Jin) The "Eight Kings Rebellion" broke out, and the Sima family committed crimes indefinitely and was extremely weak inside.
Second, the premise of the eight kings chaos, one is Western Jin to dominate the world, without internal troubles, the royal family can run wild, can stand foolish emperors, can rest assured; After the Sima family snatched the world of and Cao Wei, they summed up their experience and needed to divide the children and strengthen the power of the royal family to prevent usurpation of the world. In other words, if the Three Kingdoms did not return to Jin, the chaos of the Eight Kings would not be possible!
Third, if the Sima family wants to usurp the world of Cao Wei, it must make great achievements to establish power (in any era, to predict the general situation of the country, it is necessary to analyze the psychology and pursuit of those in power. At this point, Jiang Wei and Liu Chan are all accurately predicted), the extermination of Shu or the extermination of Wu must be selected; obviously, Shu is the weakest. After the extermination of Shu is conducive to attacking Wu, Shu will naturally become 魏国 The stepping stone to the ambition of those in power (the Sima family),It is imperative to destroy Shu. In other words, the Wei State or the Sima family will not give the Shu State a chance to dormant.
Fourth, if Wei first destroys and Wu , then the Sima family usurps the world, then the Sima family will not pass on as the emperor of the fool until the internal trouble of Shu is eliminated. No matter how weak the emperor is, the royal family will not recklessly fight inwardly. There will be no eight kings, and there will be no chaos of five kings. The Kingdom of Shu still has no chance. Sooner or later, it will be annihilated. It can't dormant than the Eight Kings Rebellion), after all, the power gap between the Central Plains regime and the Shuhan regime is too large to coexist for a long time.
Fifth, as far as the State of Shu is concerned, Zhuge Liang will not expedition to the north after his death, and will rest and rest. Can he stay dormant for a long time? Synthesizing the history of China, the north will destroy the south and the south will attack the north. There is a glimmer of opportunity to fight out of Sichuan, and the Sichuan Basin will perish; The separatist regimes were easily destroyed by the Central Plains regime. In other words, there is no chance for Shu to dormant for a long time!
Sixth, as far as the state of Shu is concerned, Zhuge Liang will not expedition to the north after his death, and will do his best to recuperate, okay? Xiaoben thinks that it won't work. First, the population and strength of Cao Wei and Shu Han are too far apart, and the northern Cao and Wei must not be given a chance to rest and rejuvenate. The most important reason is that Liu Bei's family background is too weak, and it is full of wind; the second is Zhuge Liang The Northern Expedition during the lifetime was to use offense instead of defense, adopt a conservative and steady strategy, and did not accept the risky strategy of and Wei Yan; third, after the death of Zhuge Liang, the civil strife in Shu (the dispute between Jingzhou and the local forces) was already obvious and must be shaped Foreign aggression strengthens unity; fourth, Shu is too weak and can only survive by attacking instead of defending. Obviously, no matter Zhuge Liang, Jiang Wei, or even Liu Chan believed that the Northern Expedition was necessary, forced, and the only option, it was an offensive instead of defensive strategy.
Seventh, Jiang Wei's Northern Expedition Is there a chance to win the world? Xiaoben thinks,The Kingdom of Shu was destined to have no chance to achieve a great cause. Of course, before Jingzhou was lost, there was still a chance; after Liu Bei's defeat in the Three Gorges, there was no chance at all, and the elite of Shu Han was almost consumed. Don't say that Jiang Wei's Northern Expedition was Zhuge Liang's Northern Expedition. It only used offensive instead of defense to prevent Wei Guo from having a chance to recuperate. The strategic intention was obvious.
Eighth, history has proved that the Northern Expedition is the only way out for the Kingdom of Shu, but it is also a matter of judging the situation and Jiang Wei's Northern Expedition 20 years after Zhuge Liang's death. After Zhuge Liang died, Jiang Wan and Fei Yi were in power, without Zhuge Liang, the sense of crisis in Wei was weakened, and there was no major military conflict between Wei and Shu, and Liu Chan and the ministers of Shu were not very concerned about the Northern Expedition. Pay attention, Jiang Wei only made a few small-scale (partial division) northern expeditions. Twenty years later, Jiang Wei officially led the army. It coincided with the rise of the Sima clan of the Wei Kingdom. Liu Chan felt a sense of crisis and began to support Jiang Wei's large-scale northern expedition, insisting on the offensive instead of defensive policy. It can be seen that Jiang Weicai’s northern expedition two decades after Zhuge Liang’s death mainly depends on Zhuge Liang’s strategic plan (will arrangement), Liu Chan’s willingness to expedite the northern expedition, and Jiang Fa’s opportunity to preside over the military. It was also related to the strategic situation of the State of Shu and Wei at that time. , Not blindly laboring the army and the people. Of course, the two decades of recuperation and rejuvenation have also opened up the gap between Cao Wei and Shu Han even more!
Ninth, the historical ending, the Sima family, in order to usurp the throne, forcibly attack Shu, Dengai walked Yinpings and forced oil into the Sichuan Span_span_span river Miao, defeated Mianzhu Zhugezhan and his son, Liu Chan surrendered in Chengdu, and the Shuhan regime died out. There is no accident in history!
Xiaoben believes that everything exists for a certain reason, and the destruction of Shu is also the general trend. It cannot be dormant for a long time. The Northern Expedition is the only option; that is to say, Zhuge Liang and Jiang Wei's Northern Expedition Forced by the situation, insisting on substituting offense for defense delayed the demise of the Kingdom of Shu.It is a correct strategic decision; there is no chance that Shu can dormant to five chaos at all!
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