At 24:00 this evening, the oil price adjustment window will officially open. As of now, according to data calculations, it is expected that the price limit of gasoline and diesel will be increased by about 250 yuan per ton of gasoline and 240 yuan per ton of diesel, which is equivalent to an increase of about 0.19 yuan/liter of 92# gasoline, 0.21 yuan/liter of 95# gasoline, and 0.20 yuan/liter of 0# diesel.
The main operating rate increased this week because Anqing Petrochemical continued to increase the crude oil processing load, and the main daily average crude oil processing volume increased in January. For independent refineries in Shandong, although demand in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Shandong, South China and other regions continues to recover, refining profits may rise. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, refineries are facing destocking issues and may not increase processing loads. On the whole, Shandong independent refinery's atmospheric and vacuum capacity utilization rate may remain stable. On the whole, China as a whole is expected to rise by 0.5%.
Last week, China's independent refineries' gasoline and diesel production and sales rates both exceeded 100 to achieve destocking . This week, the National Development and Reform Commission has raised prices, with gasoline rising by 250 yuan/ton and diesel rising by 240 yuan/ton, which is good for market prices.
Core logic: The cost direction is good and the supply is rising. However, the recent refinery production and sales have basically exceeded 100 and are constantly destocking. The National Development and Reform Commission raised the price limit this week. It is expected that the market price will first rise and then fall, and finally close up.
Since the global New Year holiday falls on the weekend, there will be an adjustment holiday this Monday. The international crude oil futures will be closed for one day and there will be no settlement price. China's INE crude oil futures are closed for the New Year's Day holiday. During the holidays, local refineries in Shandong performed better, and oil prices continued to rise. The increase in refined oil products is expected to be realized at 24:00 today. The national refinery unit load was 70.86%, +0.01% month-on-month.
Although there is no crude oil closing guidance, the better shipments from local refineries in Shandong during the New Year's Day holiday have provided positive support for oil prices, and the increase in refined oil products is expected to be realized at 24:00 today, supporting the rise of domestic oil prices.
Demand recovered significantly during the New Year's Day holiday. Sales of gasoline and diesel increased sharply, especially gasoline. Refinery inventories declined significantly, and the price was strong. However, midstream and downstream replenishment was sufficient during the holiday, and a large amount of refinery inventory was transferred to the midstream and downstream. Replenishment efforts may decline after the holiday. The increase in gasoline prices at independent refineries in Shandong is expected to narrow to 50 yuan/ton, while diesel prices will remain stable with sporadic increases.
The author below will take you to look at the retail prices of No. 92 and No. 95 gasoline at gas stations across the country on January 3. The following is only an example of some major regions. After adjustments in 31 regions across the country, please refer to the table below for the retail prices of No. 92 and No. 95 gasoline at gas stations across the country.
The National VI 0# diesel at Gansu Jinchang gas station is 7.15 yuan/liter; the National VI 92# gasoline at Gansu Jinchang gas station is 7.58 yuan/liter; the National VI 95# gasoline at Gansu Jinchang gas station is 8.09 yuan/liter.
Guiyang gas station’s National VI 0# ordinary diesel is 7.35 yuan/liter; Guiyang gas station’s National VI 92# gasoline is 7.71 yuan/liter; Guiyang gas station’s National VI 95# gasoline is 8.15 yuan/liter.
Henan No. 92 gasoline has an adjusted price limit of 7.59 yuan/liter; Henan No. 95 gasoline has an adjusted price limit of 8.11 yuan/liter; Henan No. 98 gasoline has an adjusted price limit of 8.76 yuan/liter; Henan No. 0 diesel has an adjusted price limit of 8.23 yuan/liter.
Hubei No. 92 gasoline has an adjusted price limit of 7.59 yuan/liter; Hubei No. 95 gasoline has an adjusted price limit of 8.13 yuan/liter; Hubei No. 98 gasoline has an adjusted price limit of 9.12 yuan/liter; Hubei No. 0 diesel has an adjusted price limit of 7.23 yuan/liter.
Sichuan Zigong National VI 0# diesel fuel sells for 7.29 yuan/liter today; Sichuan Zigong National VI E92# gasoline sells for 7.68 yuan/liter today; Sichuan Zigong National VI E95# gasoline sells for 8.21 yuan/liter today.
National VI 0# diesel in Jilin area sells for 7.16 yuan/liter today; National VI 92# gasoline in Jilin area sells for 7.55 yuan/liter today; National VI 95# gasoline in Jilin area sells for 8.14 yuan/liter today. The above prices are for reference only, please refer to the actual transactions at gas stations in various places.
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