In 2022, the Greek tourism industry achieved a strong recovery. Directly driven by the tourism industry, the Greek economy achieved rapid development based on 2021 - Greece's GDP growth rate in 2022 will reach or even exceed 6%. Greece is one of the EU member states with the best

022 has passed. In 2022, Greece tourism will achieve a strong recovery. Directly driven by the tourism industry, the Greek economy will achieve rapid development on the basis of 2021 - Greece's GDP growth rate in 2022 will reach or even exceed 6%. Greece is one of the EU member states with the best economic performance in 2022.

Let us not be fooled by such a beautiful number as 5%, because this is only the nominal growth rate of Greece's GDP. We also need to look at the actual growth rate of Greece's GDP - minus the inflation rate.

The year 2023 has arrived. What will be the prospects for Greece’s economic development in 2023? Tourism is the biggest pillar of the Greek economy, and when tourism thrives, the Greek economy thrives. According to forecasts from the Greek official department, Greece's tourism revenue in 2023 is expected to be 95% of that in 2022. There are two different expectations in the market. One is that the Greek tourism industry will achieve a substantial increase in revenue in 2023, and the other is that the Greek tourism industry will experience a decline in revenue in 2023 due to the global economic recession.

On Christmas Eve 2022, the Greek Parliament voted to adopt the 2023 annual budget submitted by the Greek government. The Greek New Democratic Party government set a target for Greece’s GDP growth in 2023 of 1.8%. The European Commission (September 2022) forecast of Greece's economic growth in 2023 is 1%, The International Monetary Fund (October 2022) forecast is 1.8%, The OECD (November 2022) forecast is 1.6%.

I personally think:
The development prospects of the Greek economy in 2023 mainly depend on the development of the Greek tourism industry, and the development trend of the Greek tourism industry is mainly affected by the international economic situation - in 2023, The impact of the new crown on the Greek tourism industry will be minimal, and even Chinese tourists will come to Greece; in 2023, if the economies of developed European and American countries do not fall into a severe recession, European and American tourists will come to Greece as they did in 2022; if developed European and American countries fall into a severe recession, the number of European and American tourists coming to Greece will decrease significantly.

According to data released by the Bank of Greece, the number of inbound tourists to Greece in 2019 was 34 million, of which tourists from EU countries (including the United Kingdom) accounted for 64.9% of the total number of tourists. From the perspective of the number of tourists and tourism revenue, Greek tourism relies most on Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, the United States and Russia. Tourists from the above six countries contribute more than half of Greece’s tourism revenue.

As for Greek inflation in 2023, we can use the European Commission’s forecast (6%) as a benchmark. In this case, the actual growth rate of Greece's GDP in 2023 will still be negative. By the way, for most Greeks in Greece, they are more concerned about the employment rate; they don't care too much whether the economic growth is faster or slower.

Huo Qingchuan
January 2, 2023 in Evia Island, Greece