A shares will open in a few hours. In the evening, there was a lot of good or bad news. It seems that Tuesday will still be a divided market.
On the whole, the current pessimism has been overshadowed by optimism, and it is expected that there is a high probability of a good start on Tuesday. However, Angkor believes that the market for one-day tours is more likely, and beware of the formation of short-term highs!
From the perspective of bad news, there are the following:
1. Bureau of Statistics: The manufacturing PMI in December was 47%, and the non-manufacturing PMI was 41.6%
Interpretation: Since December is still in the lockdown stage and the early stage of the first wave of the epidemic, it is normal for PMI to hit a low. There will be a reversal to in the future, and a low starting point is conducive to high expectations.
2. Huatai Securities: Planned rights issue of 28 billion yuan
Interpretation: Every time securities company allots shares, it will trigger a fall in the sector of securities. It is expected that Huatai's rights issue will also cause fluctuations in the securities sector on Tuesday. It is inevitable that will open lower than . The securities sector is a weight, so it will have a negative impact on Shanghai Composite Index .
It’s just that everyone is accustomed to this kind of allotment of shares in the securities sector, and if the market opens lower, it is expected to go higher.
3. Shenzhen Stock Exchange: This week, we will focus on monitoring stocks such as "Xi'an Tourism" and " Xi'an Food " that have experienced abnormal growth recently.
Interpretation: When the market is not good, demon stocks are rampant. Short-term monitoring will dampen the long sentiment of stocks to a certain extent, but it will be beneficial to returning to normal market conditions. Pay attention to whether there will be fluctuations in the tourism sector.
4. The market value of restricted stocks was about 97.297 billion yuan in the first week of the year, and Ning Wang accounted for 40%.
In the first week of 2023 (i.e. the week of January 2-6), a total of 60 stocks were facing the lifting of restricted stocks. Calculated based on the latest closing price , the total market value of the restricted stocks was about 97.297 billion yuan, which is close to 100 billion yuan. Among them, CATL ranks first in terms of market value after the ban is released, about 43.18 billion yuan, accounting for more than 40% of the total market value after the ban is released next week. The second-largest stock in terms of market capitalization after the ban is lifted is China Mobile, which is approximately 18.803 billion yuan.
interpretation: Obviously the lifting of the ban will have a greater impact on these stocks. In particular, King Ning is the weight of GEM . If it encounters a significant reduction in holdings, it will have an adverse impact on the GEM index. However, Angkor believes that Ning Wang’s current stock price of and is at a low level, which is quite safe. Of course,
has a lot of good news!
Fifth, starting from January 3, the trading hours of the RMB foreign exchange market were extended to 3 a.m. the next day. The RMB exchange rate once returned to 6.9 during the session on Friday.
Interpretation: Obviously, the extension of trading hours will help enhance the trading activity of the RMB. The RMB exchange rate rose sharply during the session last Friday, and the exchange rate once returned to the 6.90 mark. Although it depreciated at the close, it still increased significantly.
The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate is obviously good for both A shares and Hong Kong stocks .
6. National Development and Reform Commission: Prioritize the recovery and expansion of consumption in 2023 and support consumption such as housing improvement, new energy vehicles, and elderly care services. In 2023, the country will prioritize the recovery and expansion of consumption, increase the income of urban and rural residents through more channels, support consumption such as housing improvement, new energy vehicles, and elderly care services, and promote the continued recovery of consumption in key areas and bulk commodities.
interpretation: This is also the official statement that the government has stated many times recently that it will give top priority to the development of consumption in 2023. As analyzed by Angkor, consumption will be divided into levels. Bulk consumption of and will give way to ordinary consumption, and then consumption upgrades will be gradually carried out. This is a gradual process!
7. Luxury hotels in Sanya, Hainan have fully booked 10,000-yuan suites, and air ticket bookings have reached a peak in the past five years.
From the perspective of air ticket bookings, after Sanya announced on December 5, 2022 that it would no longer implement classified management of foreign (returning) personnel in the province
, on December 6, the number of air ticket bookings to Sanya on the Qunar platform reached a peak in the past five years. Since December 18, the booking volume of air tickets to Sanya has fluctuated and increased again after slowly falling back. The booking volume in the last week of December has always remained at a high level.
interpretation: This is a good phenomenon, indicating that tourism is recovering well. Angkor also believes that after the peak of the first wave of the epidemic recedes, everyone will gradually stabilize their mentality and enter the rhythm of comprehensive economic recovery and return to normal life.
overall!
Angkor believes that there is a higher possibility of a good start on Tuesday. What we need to pay attention to is that if the market jumps short of and opens high of again, there will be another gap. Don’t forget that the gap from last Friday has not been filled yet, so the higher you go, the more careful you must be. Angkor believes that above 3100, it is mainly to reduce positions! Waiting for the opportunity after fills the gap of !
and above are for reference! # stock market analysis # #fund#
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