December 30, 2022 is the final battle for A-shares. No matter sad or happy, it also brings an end to this year’s investment. At the beginning of the year, I also said that the market this year would not be easy. The reason is very simple, that is, the harm will outweigh the good.

December 30, 2022 is the final battle of A shares . No matter sad or happy, it also brings an end to this year’s investment.

At the beginning of the year, I also said that the market this year would not be easy. The reason is very simple, that is, the harm will outweigh the good.

First of all, historically speaking, A-shares have almost never had four consecutive positive years in the past thirty years, so the positive in 19, 20, and 21 years will most likely be adjusted.

Secondly, our mask problem continued at the beginning of the year, and it is the beginning of the third year. Many people are already exhausted.

There is another important reason, and that is the problem of switching styles in the market. In the past 20 years, the hype of and white horse stocks has become a trend, attracting a group of investors to come in and take over, and also making most investors fall into the mood of value investment and cannot extricate themselves.

html In the 321 years of speculation in small and medium-sized caps, all bottom cyclical stocks would be embarrassed if they did not double, such as steel, coal, electricity, energy, etc.

In some articles at the beginning of the year, I repeatedly told everyone that in addition to the weakness in the current market after three consecutive positives and the persistence of masks, there is another problem: cost performance.

The white horse in the sky falls from the sky, the cycle on the ground rises from the ground, all the stocks are hanging in the air, neither up nor down, it is difficult to find the price/performance ratio suitable for medium and long-term investment.

However, in 2022, the market came out with a special style, that is, the theme year .

does not speculate on performance or cycles this year. The hype is all about various themes. As long as there is a slight disturbance, it will be promoted. However, in the end, this kind of theme will only be a wave of speculation. However, we have to admit that people who do short-term popular themes this year will have an easier time making money.

In 2022, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell by 15.13%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index fell by 25.85%, and the GEM Index fell by 29.37%.

From a numerical point of view, it is in line with the historical pattern of A-shares surpassing three consecutive positives. However, in my opinion, there are many intervening factors in this decline. Without these, the decline may be even greater.

For example, the real estate industry has been loosened repeatedly, the platform economy has been unbundled, has been supported, and the development of small and micro enterprises has been supported. Of course, the last powerful medicine is: liberalization.

If it weren’t for this layer of forced intervention, maybe the stock market would be even worse than it is now. But, no matter what, looking at the facts, that's it.

Looking around the world, India has the best index, although some people have told me: "Brother Shou, the index is relatively distorted now."

I also know this situation, but since we want to talk about market indicators, we definitely cannot talk about individual stocks . Whether it is distorted or not, it is also the only authoritative number and can also represent some things.

India is the best but only about 5%. However, in the context of various conflicts, this range is considered acceptable, and India's stock market has risen very comfortably in recent years.

I think there is one factor that cannot be ignored, that is, India's demographic dividend period is still continuing. Their market is more active, labor costs are lower, and overall vitality is stronger.

And we have already experienced states such as lying flat, involution, etc. These are all inevitable laws of development. Let’s look at it objectively.

The markets in the other two big countries are not very good either. Big Goose fell 41.29% because of the fight, and Beautiful Country 's Nasdaq html fell 33.03% in 5 years.

I have a friend who has been an investment banker for many years. They will share some interesting data. This is for reference only.

They are also based on data obtained from some surveys or other channels. Based on the average of various brokerage , 13.9% of the people who made money in the stock market this year were almost 9%, and the final loss was about 78%. This number is for everyone's reference only, and there must be errors and discrepancies.

For me personally, the number of positions and positions this year is actually not many. The overall proportion of positions to is not high, because since I feel that this year is not better than before, and I focus on the long term, I will not rush to build positions.

But the only position is profitable this year, but because the position is not high, it does not mean much.

2022Whether it is good or bad, this year is about to pass. History is used to guide the future, not to stop us from moving forward. It is good to be prepared for danger in times of peace, but our attitude must be positive and optimistic.

For the first quarter of next year, I think the economic recovery may not be too obvious, because around the Spring Festival is when everyone takes a rest, and generally the working hours in the first quarter are a little looser than in other quarters.

Secondly, the most important thing is that many people have become positive one after another, and some have recovered, and some families have even had elderly people die, etc. The first quarter is actually mainly a stage of recovery.

But after spring blooms in the second and third quarters, if nothing else happens, there will definitely be a wave of enthusiasm because everyone wants to try again.

Actually, to be fair, after three years of epidemic, I feel that the years 20 and 21 were actually not bad. In the early days, there were no various codes and itinerary cards. At that time, infected people would be isolated in cabins.

The biggest impact was in 2022, when there were various road closures, and procedures such as itinerary card health code nucleic acid results and so on.

Why do you say that? Because I saw a set of business trip data. Most people still traveled a lot in 2020 and 21, but it dropped sharply in 2022.

So, from this perspective, although the epidemic lasted three years, the most severe impact should be in 22 years. The first two years were relatively okay.

No matter what, we must welcome the arrival of 2023 with full hope, and judging from the trend of liberalization, next year is still worth looking forward to. I hope every reader can reach a higher level.

Before the article was published, I saw a message from an old reader: "Hello Teacher Shou, this year has finally come to a successful end. Happy New Year to Teacher Shou! The biggest gain this year is that I can gain intellectual enlightenment from Teacher Shou's words. May the teacher and his family be healthy and happy, and may the new year bring a new atmosphere! "

I am also very grateful to all readers for their companionship over the past year. This year, we have communicated through text regardless of rain or shine, which is actually a sign of mutual achievement and progress. I also want to thank you for meeting everyone.

Over the past year, some old readers have followed us all the way, and some have faded out of sight. People come and go, so I accept the impermanence of things and people coming and going, because there is no such thing as a banquet that lasts forever.

Some people will only be together for a while, and some people will be together for a lifetime. The fate is just different.

However, for every reader who has been close to me, I sincerely wish you all the best. Regardless of whether there will be communication and exchanges in the future, at least at some stage, meeting each other once was a rare fate.

In the six months since I returned to Beijing, I haven’t had gatherings with my previous circle. It’s normal to go out and have tea. Although we can have a good conversation if we meet, I seem to have adapted to my post-retirement life. I take my child and read to him every day, tell him stories about the past, and take care of me three meals a day from my relatives.

Think about it, in the more than half a year since I came back to Beijing, I seem to have only seen my old friends twice.

Once I visited the graves of Brother Runner and Lao Zhong. I got together with Minxiu and ate dumplings made by her. She is my best friend.

Another time, the salesperson born in the 1980s who had been with me for many years passed away. When I was saying goodbye to him, I saw some friends from my old subordinates and partners. These friends were mostly old friends from work.

In the past few years, my status has also changed. After all, I am not as busy as I was when I was young, so I have completely entered the state of retirement, which is also an inevitable path.

However, I think that being able to keep thinking and reading is also a responsibility for oneself and a love for life.

Today is Laba Festival , I wish all readers a happy Laba Festival.

Eat more delicious food and enjoy the coming New Year's Day holiday.

Good night, dear readers. (previously written in the official account article, copied here) The original text of comes from the official account: Snowball Sixty Old Man (huajia1959). Welcome to pay attention, it contains all historical articles.