Maintain fluctuation judgment
Currently the key factors affecting the market: market sentiment, economic fundamentals, macro policy , external factors.
Market sentiment, although this relaxation turned a big turn and was still at the peak, I felt that things were developing in a favorable direction. For example, the smooth recovery of logistics in various places, the expansion of targeted drugs, and the fact that everyone understands the symptoms of new crown has begun to stop panic, and the victory has been halfway through. However, in terms of capital sentiment, we are still cautious, and sudden negative events beyond expectations will still scare the market too much.
Economic fundamentals are all interpreting November's financial data today, which is lower than expected. The increase in social financing scale in November was 1.99 trillion yuan, 610.9 billion yuan less than the same period last year. In November, CPI rose by 1.6% year-on-year, and demand on the consumer side was still weak. PPI fell by 1.3% year-on-year, and continued to rise month-on-month. In November, exports were -8.7% year-on-year, imports were -10.6% year-on-year, and foreign demand continued to decline. The manufacturing PMI in November was 48%, which was in the contraction range.
In addition, Gao Shanwen said: The demand in the real estate market will take a long time to recover and will not soon see a V-shaped rebound. That is to say, our policies are in place, but if we have to wait for demand to recover, we may have to wait a while longer.
In terms of macro-policy, the early support for real estate and monetary policy was relatively in place, and in the continuous efforts, the positive expectations have been reflected almost the same. Next, the economic work meeting will see where the general direction is pointed.
external factors, waiting for Fed hike rate in December, 50 basis points are in line with expectations. In addition, there are also a number of central bank to follow the actions of the Fed. This week is also called the central bank's "super week". It sounds domineering, but it is not good at all.
There are uneasy things again. Kosovo and Serbia situation is a bit tense. Serbia has a good relationship with us and is also good with Russia. For example, it has not joined the ranks of Western sanctions against Russia. It has been isolated in the West. Russia and Ukraine have not yet ended, and Europe is still uneasy.
Gao Shanwen's new analysis framework
Anxin 2023 Annual Investment Strategy Meeting, Gao Shanwen analyzed the relationship between security and development and established an analysis framework.
growth is the horizontal axis and security is the vertical axis. It divides four quadrants, and then fills in the industry. The first quadrant means that there is high growth, which is closely related to security; the second quadrant means that there is no high growth but is related to security; the third quadrant means that there is no high growth and is not related to security; the fourth quadrant means that there is high growth but is not closely related to security.
Security and development may be a very important investment theme in 2023. It is difficult to expect a larger wave of market conditions that are neither safe nor high growth.
market still focuses on epidemic-related
rose well today, community group buying , pre-made dishes, duty-free shops, online travel , is still related to epidemic prevention. Before the epidemic peaks, they will have the motivation to continue to speculate.
Finally, let’s talk about medicine. Some people say that the wave of medicine has ended, and there is no chance in the short term, and it may not be good in the long term. If it develops well, then there will be a centralized procurement. Some people say that there will be opportunities in the medium and long term because the new crown epidemic has wave after wave and the arrival of aging. The entire industry may not have large-scale opportunities, but the sub-industry may have opportunities. Those who are optimistic about medicine may wish to buy some medicine fund , as they will not sit still and wait for death. Of course, if he starts buying new energy and high-tech, he will forget it.
Things in the world are unpredictable, I wish you peace and smooth ~
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