Question: In the past month, the global market has generally risen, and the same is true for A shares and Hong Kong stocks. The market sentiment is relatively high. Hong Kong stocks have recently become the hottest compared to A shares and US shares and . From October 25 to November 23, 2022, Hang Seng Technology's increase ranked among the top in the world's major indexes, with an increase of 26.87%, and Hong Kong stock innovative drugs reached 21.23%. How do you understand the changes in the Hong Kong stock market in the past month?
Currently Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index valuations are at a relatively low historical level, implying many short-term irrational factors. After experienced the release of irrational factors in October, the market structural opportunities increased. entered November, and all the components of related to Hang Seng Technology opened higher in , boosting the market sentiment of the Chinese Internet Hong Kong stock sector in the short term.
Port has continued to rebound recently, with major industries rising more and falling less. Among them, the information technology industry and healthcare industry led the growth rate, with weekly increases and losses last week at 8.47% and 7.14% respectively. In addition, the weekly increase and decline of real estate construction and utilities was 4.48% and 3.99% respectively, with the highest increase. After more than half a month of strong rise, Hong Kong stocks have received significant valuation repairs. In fact, the rebound of this time is mainly due to the continuous optimization of epidemic prevention measures - 20 epidemic prevention measures were released, real estate policies are continuously increased - real estate "three arrows are launched at once", real estate 16 real estate quotas are released, external aspects of , geopolitical environment is expected to improve significantly after the G20 summit last week, and at the same time, the Fed's panic peaked at the interest rate hike. But in terms of peripheral liquidity, Fed officials frequently blew hawks last week. , including Brad of the famous hawkish St. Louis Fed, and Boston Fed Chairman Collins, who took office in recent months, all expressed concerns about inflation stickiness, as well as the need to further strengthen the rate hike to suppress inflation. The above statement also brought about a rebound in the US dollar index and the US bond interest rate .
The growth rate of retail sales in the United States in October released last Thursday recorded a 1.3% month-on-month growth rate, setting a new high since February this year; the growth rate of year-on-year growth rate reached 8.3%. In addition, the current US employment market is still in a high prosperity, so the stickiness of US inflation in may be stronger than expected. The unexpected decline in CPI data in October may not fully reflect this. However, since it is the PCE data at the end of November or the CPI data released in mid-December, there is still a certain time before the current situation, and the market remains optimistic and positive some time before the data is released.
Ping An Securities believes that has a positive change in various factors such as domestic economic fundamentals and overseas liquidity expectations, there is still room for certainty to grasp the recovery of Hong Kong stock valuation, but the volatility and repetition will be significantly higher than in the past half month. The future market opportunities of Hang Seng Technology are still worth looking forward to.
Q: What are the characteristics of this market in Hong Kong stock ? What are the characteristics of investment? What are the main influencing factors?
Hong Kong market is a securities market driven by fundamentals research. listed companies are mainly Chinese companies, and investors are mainly institutional investors. At the same time, they attach great importance to fundamental factors such as company valuation, shareholder returns and medium- and long-term growth space. Excellent companies can have premium in the Hong Kong market. At the same time, this market is in line with and internationally. Many Chinese companies with global vision will choose to list in Hong Kong, so that they can access global capital and are conducive to the medium- and long-term development of the company. At the same time, listed companies in the Hong Kong market starts at the bottom of the cycle and is cheaper , so there will be huge increases in listed companies.
influencing factors. On the one hand, the profit of numerator mainly depends on the Chinese economy. The stage of improvement in Hong Kong stock market in is often the stage of loose credit in the mainland of China; on the other hand, the valuation of the denominator end of is mainly affected by the long-term interest rate of the US dollar and the liquidity of the US dollar, which is related to US economy and monetary policy . If the interest rate of US bonds rises and the US dollar rises, there will be a suppression on the valuation of Hong Kong stocks.In addition, in recent years, the game between China and the United States has strengthened, and the supervision of mainland industrial policies has become stricter, and the impact of China-US policies on Hong Kong stocks has also increased.
In terms of investment, one of the methodology that the Hong Kong market can continue to create excess returns is that and excellent companies will cross the cycle . From the perspective of medium- and short-term factors, Hong Kong stocks are indeed affected by domestic and foreign macro, liquidity and policy factors. These factors have complex impacts, and there are many games among them, which requires investors to have the ability to establish medium- and short-term timing models. However, there is one way to continuously create excess returns, that is, is looking for high-quality leading companies with cheap valuations to hold for a long time. This method can theoretically cross cycles, but requires more patience and tolerance of fluctuations. This is the characteristic of Hong Kong stock investment.
Question: has a view to commenting on Hong Kong stock investment "the fundamentals look at the mainland, the capital side look at the overseas, and the sentiment side look at the global". How do you view it? What investment methods should investors adopt to deploy Hong Kong stocks? Why ? Is the short-term game difficulty in the Hong Kong stock market significantly higher than that of A-shares?
Overall, nearly 80% of the profits of Hong Kong-listed companies come from the mainland, while investors mainly use overseas funds. Therefore, it makes sense to say that "the fundamentals look at the mainland, the capital look at the overseas, and the sentiment look at the global" . Changes in fundamental profits are mainly affected by changes in domestic economic prosperity, while changes in liquidity are mainly determined by global liquidity. In the past two years, risk preferences are mainly affected by domestic policies and global situations (including Sino-US relations and geopolitical ).
Overall, the short-term game in the Hong Kong stock market is indeed more difficult than that in A-shares, because Hong Kong stocks as an offshore market have been greatly affected at home and abroad, and there are more variables to consider. Whenever there is a related risk event in the world, Hong Kong stocks, which are the offshore market, have a higher proportion of foreign capital, will suffer a greater impact, and will also have greater uncertainty and volatility. Because we will give priority to to some companies with good liquidity, cost-effectiveness and long-term growth logic, so that we will have relatively stronger stress resistance when market fluctuations.
However, in the long run, Hong Kong stocks attach great importance to fundamentals, and their trends are basically rising and falling with profit fundamentals. Therefore, when the economic turning point or the economic turning point of the related industry is confirmed, the winning rate of investing in Hong Kong stocks is higher and it is easy to achieve relatively higher returns. Therefore, the most important thing to pay attention to in the Hong Kong stock market in the long run is companies whose profit fundamentals continue to improve or whose performance has a certain turning point.
Risk warning: The fund manager promises to manage and use fund assets with the principles of honesty, trustworthiness, diligence and conscientiousness, but does not guarantee the fund's profits or the minimum return. When purchasing a fund, investors should read the fund contract and prospectus and other legal documents of the fund in detail to understand the specific situation of the fund. The performance of other funds managed by the fund manager and the past performance achieved by their investment personnel do not indicate their future performance, nor does it constitute a guarantee of the performance of this fund. Fund investments should be cautious.
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