China News Service, December 9 (Wang Yongle) On the morning of the 9th, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce the November Consumer Price Index (CPI). Many institutions expect CPI to rise by 1.6% year-on-year in November.
CPI growth may return to the "1 era"
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in October 2022, the national CPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year. The year-on-year increase fell significantly from September, and was lower than market expectations for the fourth consecutive month.
For the upcoming November CPI data, Wind data shows that as of December 8, the average forecast of the year-on-year increase in November CPI by 19 institutions was 1.6%. From the forecast value, 5 companies are below 1.6%, 8 companies are 1.6%, 3 companies are 1.7%, 2 companies are 1.8%, and only 1 company is more than 2%. The highest predicted value is 2.2% given by Guolian Securities , and the lowest is 1.4% given by CITIC Securities and Debang Securities . If calculated based on the average predicted by institutions, the year-on-year increase of CPI will fall significantly again and return to the "1 era".
From the perspective of institutional forecasts, the decline in food prices is the main drag on the narrowing of CPI growth, while the impact of non-food items is relatively low.
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs data showed that pork and vegetable prices fell significantly in November. As of the week ending December 1, the average weekly prices of pork and 19 kinds of vegetables were 32.64 yuan/kg and 3.71 yuan/kg, down 7.25% and 9.29% from the week ending November 3. rose 34.2% and 32.4% year-on-year compared with , respectively.
In terms of oil prices, the National Development and Reform Commission raised and lowered the prices of refined oil once in November, and the prices of gasoline and diesel were reduced by 20 yuan and 15 yuan per ton respectively.
The macro research team of the National Economic Research Center of Peking University analyzed that due to the decline in international crude oil, repeated epidemics, seasonal decline in domestic consumption demand and improvement in supply of some commodities, food prices fell month-on-month and , and non-foods are relatively stable. It is expected that CPI will grow 1.5% year-on-year in November, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous period.
Debang Securities macro report said that after four consecutive months of rising food items since July, it tended to fall in November, and the month-on-month changes in non-food CPI were also in a historically low range. It is expected that the CPI in November fell by 0.3% month-on-month and 1.4% year-on-year.
HuaChuang Macro Zhang Yu's team predicts that CPI will fall by 0.2% month-on-month in November and fall back to around 1.5% year-on-year. The large number of vegetables are on the market in winter, and the month-on-month decline in vegetable prices is the main drag of the weakening of food prices in November. Energy prices have no directional impact on CPI. It is expected that core CPI will fall by about 0.2% month-on-month, and remain the same as 0.6% year-on-year.
How to move CPI in the future?
Bohai Securities believes that the CPI remained stable overall year-on-year in 2022. Although pork prices rose, there was no "lard resonance". At the same time, the overall decline in core inflation also hedged to disturb the CPI by pork prices.
Looking ahead to 2023, Ping An Securities expects that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in 2023 is high at first and low at the end, and the center is slightly lower than in 2022. In the neutral situation, the strong lard and weak lard, the CPI centers were 1.6%, 2.0% and 1.3%, respectively. At the same time, affected by the cardinality effect , it reached a temporary high in February 2023.
UBS Securities macro team analyzed that as China's economy emerged from the epidemic and reopened consumption and service activities rebounded, related prices (such as tourism and transportation) were expected to rise. As the pig cycle rebounds, food prices are also rising. However, the background of this round of economic restart is the slowdown in the global economy and weakening of energy prices. In addition, the adjustment of the real estate market has also brought downward pressure on the upstream commodity prices, resulting in PPI deflation. Therefore, although some food and service consumer prices may rise, overall CPI inflation should be roughly stable driven by falling energy prices and weaker manufacturing core commodities prices. It is expected that the average year-on-year growth rate of CPI in 2023 will be about 2%, and its upward space will be limited.
CITIC Securities expects that the year-on-year growth rate of core CPI may begin to stabilize and rebound in 2023, but the recovery may be relatively limited, with the center around 1%-1.2%. The pig cycle has started for about 5 months, driving the upward trend of the food item CPI, and the pressure is expected to gradually ease after the first quarter of next year. ( China News Service APP)
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