Statement: The article mentions individual stocks, just for examples, do not make trading basis.
When the market is in a downward trend, it has been falling for a long time, the decline is also very large, and the position is very low. Should we buy at the bottom of , or wait for the bottom to confirm before starting to buy?
The helmsman sometimes opposes the idea of waiting for the bottom to confirm before starting to buy.
When the market fell below 3,000 points in October this year, the helmsman's view was that the market below 3,000 points was a low valuation range, which was an opportunity to build positions. If the market fell below 2,900 points, it was an extreme undervaluation range, and you can buy it at will (this is not just about buying with your eyes closed, it just means that the market fell below 2,900 points and stayed for a short time, and the opportunity is rare).
At this time, the helmsman opposed the view that he waited for the bottom to confirm before starting to buy, because we had no way to know whether the market had reached the bottom. Only after the bottom passed can we confirm that it was the lowest bottom.
Only after the fact occurs can we confirm that it is a fact, and it is only possible before the fact occurs.
At this time, the helmsman tends toward the valuation angle. He does not seek the lowest point, but only wants the buying point position to be low enough. Just buy it in the entire bottom range. The helmsman doesn’t know where the lowest and lower are.
If you wait until the bottom of the market is confirmed before entering the market, you will miss it too much, because after the bottom of the market index is confirmed, many individual stocks have risen a lot.
If the entire market is a structural fluctuating market, when the phase bottom is confirmed, it will reach the phase top.
daily chart on 2022.11.29 2 buying appeared, 2022.11.31 was 1. It can be confirmed that 2885 points on 2022.10.31 is a phased bottom point. When thinking about buying at this time, it is already difficult to find low-priced, low-risk individual stock targets.
In the past, the helmsman also liked to predict the lowest point in the market. If you want to buy at the lowest point, you can copy it at the lowest point, otherwise how can we show our level?
Later I found that some things can be requested, some things cannot be requested, some things cannot be encountered, and some things cannot be encountered.
The bottom of the market is hard to come by.
The helmsman sometimes recognizes the idea of starting to buy after the bottom confirms.
When choosing individual stocks to operate, the helmsman will avoid those that have been heavily speculated in the past two or three years, with the stock price at a high level and the price at a downward trend.
If the selected stock is still in a downward trend, the helmsman will generally wait until the bottom confirms before building a position.
is what the helmsman usually says not to buy Chan Theory 1 (a buy Chan Theory is similar to buying at the bottom). When the rise after Chan Theory 1 buys, you can enter the bardo stage, and then start building a position from Chan Theory 2 and Chan Theory 4 buy.
China Communications Construction Weekly Chart:
China Communications Construction has been falling since March 2017. Now we know that the weekly line Chan Lun 1 is near July 23, November 2021 is around November 2021, and the weekly line Chan Lun 4 is around November 2022.
If the helmsman operates China Communications Construction, the helmsman will not copy the bottom of the nearby Chanlun 1 buying on July 23, 2021, but will wait until the Chanlun 1 buys continuously and continue to rise in volume, with a strong force. Once the bottom is confirmed, wait until the callback forms Chanlun 2 buys before intervening. If Chanlun 2 buys wrong, wait for the Chanlun 4 buys to intervene.
China Communications Construction Weekly Line Chan Theory 1 has a strong rise after buying, and the bottom near July 23, 2021 is easier to confirm, but some Chan Theory 1 has a weak rise after buying, so it is uncertain whether the bottom is not sure. Let’s see if the Chan Theory 1 has entered the bardo stage after buying.
If the Chan Lun 1 cannot enter the most recent center after buying, forming a 3-sell, it means that the decline has not ended yet, and there may be a new low, which needs to be avoided, or just look at it; if you enter the bardo stage, it means that the previous decline structure is over, and the latter may be a very market or a decline. The Chan Lun 2 buying in the bardo stage can also be referred to, but we must know the characteristics of the bardo stage. The upward structure may not be established. If the rise is not strong after the buying point, you have to leave.
Fulet daily chart:
Fulet began to fall from 2021.9.3, 2022.3.16 to 2022.10.12 is the latest decline structure a+A+b, and center A is the most recent decline center.
2022.10.12, the 1-buy was formed. Although the subsequent rise is not strong, it enters the center A and enters the bardo stage. A new upward structure may be formed later, and a central A may also be extended.
2022.11.29 formed the 2-buy for Chan Theory. This 2-buy for Chan Theory can be used as a reference, but we must know the risks and the probability of failure. Once the daily increase is over, the strength is not strong, we must leave first.
This is actually not a contradiction, but a specific analysis of the specific situation.
The market trend, structure and position look at the overall environment, while when we operate, we are specific individual stocks.
We should not just look at the right and wrong of the view itself, but forget what the actual situation is.
After all, what we trade is not our own point of view.
Does a woman become a full-time mother or go to work after getting married and having children?
No matter which point of view we think is right, it is just a point of view. If we choose a family in detail, we need to choose and make choices based on the actual situation of the family.
would rather not do it than do it wrong, this is just a point of view. Is
better not to do it than to do it wrong, or rather do it wrong than to do it?
also needs to be combined with specific situations.
If we put aside the actual situation and just an empty discussion point of view, it is meaningless. So what if
is wrong? So what? If you don’t follow the actual situation, you won’t be able to play in the end.
This situation is very common in the stock market. For example, the strong will always be strong and the weak will always be weak. The gap will be filled. The market will fall for a long time, the decline will fall during the festival, and the summit will fall...
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