Seeing this title, Mingyou, who is familiar with old stock investors, may be a little confused. Didn’t he agree to a good bear market? Why did this happen again?
Don’t worry, even if it reaches 4,000 points next year, it will not be the bull market of .
is even more confused, right?
Next, the old stock investor said.
1, first look at the medium and short-term "password" of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
Previous post Old stock investors said that the recent trend of the Shanghai Stock Exchange is very interesting. Look at the picture below (Shanghai Stock Exchange Day K):
Starting from mid-October, for most ordinary investors, except for the trading days within the 4 red circles in the figure above, the remaining trading days should be lying flat or selling, right?
Look at the blue circles, especially the last two larger blue circles. You can review the time-sharing charts of those trading days. The trading volume is very large. opens high and goes low and ( fluctuates at high ), but the northward direction is still in a net inflow state. The most typical one is last Thursday (11.11 and 11.14). Under the "flag-down ceremony", the northward direction actually bought more than 310 billion html.
If we consider the recent activity of the medium-length header ( Shanghai Stock Exchange 50) including the real estate and banking sectors, this is obviously a signal of medium- and long-term funds entering the market.
Friends who are interested can review it carefully and taste it carefully.
2, the password in the deep-component finger.
1, the index month line long view:
Everyone will correspond to circles 1→2, 3→4, 5→6, 7→8. If you haven't found the feeling yet, look at the following two pictures.
2, the K-line from 2005 to 2002.
3, index of monthly chart for 2015 to 22 years.
In addition to the trend, there is still time. In 2005-2002, 2015-22, the same seven years, are the similar trends clearer?
So, it is not wrong for us to be in a bear market at this stage, so where does 4000 points come from?
3, and then return to the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
4000 points definitely refers to the 4000 points of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, so let’s go back to the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
1, the 2003 monthly K-line of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
2, the recent monthly K-line of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
3, the key point!
time is two months ahead of schedule, so the corresponding time is almost the end of next year (around the Spring Festival).
4, how did 4000 points come from?
02 to 2003 are all above 1300 points, and this round is 2853 and 2885. Even if there is still a low point next year, it should be within this range.
is calculated as low, 2853x1.36=3880 points.
However, this wave of medium and long-term funds are mainly based on the Chinese word head. Considering its weight effect, it is possible to reach 4,000 points or even higher.
is technically proved, and the call for a bull market is really coming, so it is possible to cash out medium and long-term large funds.
So, 4000 points, you can really yy it.
4, fundamentals .
or above are considered as carving a boat and seeking a sword. We are still the same rule, and use "basics" to prove it:
still corresponds to the trend in 2003.
With the relaxation of "masks" at this stage and support for the real estate industry, as well as the easing of the peripheral ease (the major summits last month and the ease of the situation in eastern Wu), including the Federal Reserve's rate hike process slowing down (there is a high probability of only 25 basis points this month), and the corresponding trend of 1 will not be a big problem (it is also the intermediate rebound trend mentioned by old investors since the beginning of last month).
So, what about the trend after circle 1 and the trend of circle 2?
First of all, the relaxation of "masks" and support for real estate are mainly focused on recovery and stability; secondly, the external easing is only a phased period; in addition, the Fed 's rate hike cycle is only a half-time break at this stage, and at most, there should be a final desperate bet starting from the second quarter of next year, so the trend behind Circle 1 is normal.
As for circle 2, when the Fed rate hike cycle is completely over, what remains is the US dollar falling and the next rate hike cycle cuts , and the RMB starts to appreciate.
The best way for RMB to appreciate is financial assets, real estate and core assets represented by central enterprises, which can be fully corresponding to Circle 2.
If you look back at that time, will the current medium- and long-term funds enter the Chinese-word and finance and real estate market with unique vision?
What if there is another registration system in it (I personally think the probability is very high, because I can't drag it out.)?
Conclusion:
4000 points can be found, but it is purely an index market, and it still cannot escape the "sick cow" attribute, because no matter it is finance, real estate or Chinese, it is not the dish of ordinary investors. Above
4000 points, a group of new investors will stand on the high hills.
Follow old investors, we are walking together.
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