Recently, I have been following the medical sector more frequently. In addition to being related to personal holdings in , it is also related to its possible expected reversal. Today we will continue to track the medical and pharmaceutical sector, and the following analysis is conducted from the perspectives of performance, policy, valuation and technical aspects.
1. In terms of performance
This week, I watched the performance forecasts of several medical and pharmaceutical stocks in the first three quarters. Compared with the performance growth released in the previous two weeks, this is also expected. Generally, in the early stage of performance release, companies with better performance releases are released in advance, but the performance released over time is not so impressive, and there are even many performance crashes in the end.
is specifically: Kelaiying released its performance forecast, with a profit of about 2.7 billion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, with increasing by about 290% year-on-year;
Waltda's net profit in the first three quarters was 462 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45%;
Minray Medical 's net profit in the first three quarters was 2.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%.
overall is still good, and it is expected to be relatively high in the performance growth comparison of various sectors of A shares .
2. In terms of policy information
Recently, the market has fermented the concept word "new medical infrastructure" because of the main reason being the medical equipment interest loan policy released some time ago. The total amount is not small. This can greatly release the medical and pharmaceutical market and have a certain effect on improving the performance expectations of the medical and pharmaceutical industry.
Another, judging from the recent centralized procurement prices, the price reduction is much smaller than expected, and it has been significantly reduced compared with previous years. The market has a moderate expectation change in the policy of centralized procurement of medical medicines. In addition, the news that innovative medical care is not included in the scope of centralized procurement has been reiterated before, so policy risks are expected to be reduced, valuations are expected to be repaired, and market sentiment is also gradually being repaired.
3. In terms of valuation,
This round of continuous decline in the medical and pharmaceutical sector has pushed the valuation of this type of sector to the lowest level in history, which is unprecedented. So what is its valuation after the recent increase of about 15% of ? Let’s take a look together:
From the above figure, we can see that the current PE percentage of CSI Medical is 1.75%, and the PB percentage is 30.84%. Overall, the valuation of this sector is still at the bottom area. Although it has rebounded, it is still low. What’s more important is that its return on equity (ROE) has reached nearly 22%. This indicator can roughly evaluate the long-term return of a certain sector, that is, its inherent growth potential. It is very few that can reach 20%. This is also one of the reasons why individuals prefer long-term investment in medical products.
4. In terms of technical form,
We have analyzed this a few days ago, and there is no change in the views. Whether from the daily or weekly trend charts, the medical and pharmaceutical sector has a high probability of bottoming out of the market.
The above chart is the daily trend of the CSI Medical sector. This sector broke through the small box at the bottom on Friday, and the small box showed a typical W-bottom pattern. From a probability perspective, this combination is more in line with the trend of bottoming out of . Even if there is a rebound in the later stage, I personally think it will be difficult to fall below the upper edge of the box in the short term. If I reach this position, I personally think it will be a better right-side configuration opportunity.
The above chart is the weekly trend chart of the CSI Medical sector. This week's weekly line is officially golden cross . Then the " bottom divergence from " pattern we mentioned last week will be officially formed. Judging from the historical trend patterns of most indexes, there will generally be a medium-term trend market (in units of months). If market is in place, then there is a possibility of a long-term trend market (more than 1 year).
Overall, the expectation of the bottom reversal of the medical and pharmaceutical sector is increasing. The underlying logic of its transformation is closely related to the centralized procurement policy mentioned above. The general logic is as follows: centralized procurement lowers the profit margin - the valuation center moves downward - market confidence lacks - capital outflows - stock prices continue to fall, and now there are expectations of improvement, and there are favorable policies. The expectation of centralized procurement price increases, and the biggest factor suppressing its valuation is alleviated. Therefore, in the past month, many instinctive funds have continued to flow in, and the valuation has risen.
From the company's basic situation, the performance is also good. At the same time, with the release of the policy side, the performance of the medical and pharmaceutical sector is expected to rebound from the bottom. At the same time, some sub-sectors still have the logic of domestic substitution, which can further improve the performance of related companies.
From the short-term trend, this sector is subject to the pressure of the above half-year line, and there may be sideways fluctuations in digesting chips, but the medium- and long-term positive trend has gradually emerged. Looking far, investment will be simpler.
OK. That’s all for today’s analysis. If you have any additional information, please leave a message in the message area. Let’s discuss it together.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-