The main news on the weekend are: Important meeting was held today, the spokesperson: Formulate an action plan, and China's economy will maintain a reasonable range; the interest rate of first-home commercial loans in many places rarely exceeds 4%, setting a historical low in recent years; policy-based development financial tools are put into play to support infrastructure investment; the China Securities Regulatory Commission revised relevant rules for share repurchase of listed companies. Support and encourage listed companies to implement share repurchase in accordance with the law; pork prices break through 28 yuan; lithium mine "two heroes" in the first three quarters expected to increase significantly, with a maximum increase of more than 30 times; Volkswagen will invest more than 2 billion euros to establish an autonomous driving joint venture in China; US stocks fell again, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.34%, the Nasdaq fell 3%, S&P fell 2.37%, the popular Chinese stocks ranked the top in the decline, Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell nearly 4 %, JD.com and Baidu fell more than 6%; FTSE A50 fell 0.76%, offshore RMB depreciated by 377 basis points, closing at 7.22; A shares rebounded across the board last Friday, and an important meeting was held on Sunday. Maintaining stability during the meeting was the main tone. There was an opportunity to rise to 20-30-day lines and above in the first half of the week, but we must be careful of encountering obstacles here at any time. In terms of operation, we can first cash in on the low-level profit chips when taking advantage of the rebound. Those who missed the opportunity last week cannot chase the rise in the short term.
tomorrow trend: The main tone of the important meeting time is stability maintenance, and the short-term rebound pressure is mainly here. The most important thing that attracted the attention of the market on the weekend is the opening of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. The meeting period is until the 22nd, and the market is expected to enter the stage of stability maintenance; another important news is that the China Securities Regulatory Commission revised the relevant rules for share repurchase of listed companies, relaxed the implementation conditions for the repurchase of new listed companies, and supported and encouraged listed companies to implement share repurchase in accordance with the law; further strengthened the signal of "policy bottom", but this repurchase must be based on two points: one is that listed companies must have cash flow ; the other is that listed companies must have development prospects or be undervalued. The biggest negative news over the weekend was that the US stock market fell again, and the three major indexes erased the increase in since October, among which Nasdaq hit a new low since July 2020; many large U.S. banks released financial reports, and net profits generally declined. Due to the continued high inflation level, Fed will further hike rates. The accumulated risks of monetary policy tightening have increased, causing the US economy to enter a recession, and the company's performance expectations are negatively affected.
A-shares fell first and then rose last week. Although they fell below 3,000 points at one time, they recovered only two days later. Mysterious funds took to protect , sending important signals to the market. The important meeting was held, and the stock market should cooperate. Of course, from a technical perspective, the market itself has accumulated strong rebound momentum. After closing 4 positives in a row, the Shanghai Stock Exchange's daily line MACD is about to golden cross , which means that the rebound enters the daily level, and then falls back later, and there may be a daily divergence; ChiNext and Shenzhen Component Index have already stepped out of the daily line MACD golden cross ahead of schedule, but because it is a golden cross below the zero axis, most of the back will encounter obstacles after rebounding to the zero axis. On Friday, due to the sharp drop in the peripheral market again, FTSE A50 fell 0.76%, and the offshore RMB depreciated by 377 basis points, only one step away from the previous high of 7.26, which brought short-term negative for A-shares; it may open slightly lower on Monday and then rebound low, with the support below at 3050-3030; strong support at 3000, and the upper pressure is mainly in the 20-30-day pressure level 3096-3136 area, and the strong pressure is in the 60-day (currently at 3200), and the 60-day will gradually decline to around 3186; the rebound will most likely encounter obstacles in the 30-60-day line in the first half of the week; the pressure above the ChiNext is 2486-2556.
tomorrow operation: you can cash in on low profit chips first. Those who miss the opportunity should not chase the rise in the short term. Last Thursday, we specifically analyzed what method will bottom be used to copy the sharp bottom in late April, choose to directly fluctuate upward and break through the trend, or to rebound and then get out of the second "foot". The main point is that it is not ruled out that the possibility of going out of the "sharp bottom" will directly pull up. This trend intention is to not give short positions the opportunity to get on the car at a low level; however, considering the current external situation (the Federal Reserve will likely continue to raise interest rates significantly in November 75 basis points) and multiple domestic pressures (repeated epidemics and increased downward pressure on the economy), we should still prepare for the second "foot" after rebounding, that is, build the double bottom pattern and then fluctuate and rebound.The sharp rise on Friday increased the probability of a sharp bottom, but whether it can continue to rebound is the key. Only by breaking through the 60-day line with a large volume (more than one trillion yuan) will it reverse the decline and truly become stronger. Last Sunday, we believed that A-shares will see an important turning point in October, or a major phased bottom may be built. At present, it will take two weeks to confirm whether the turning point has occurred, but no matter what, the strong reversal last week has begun to show good momentum.
is currently at this position. Under 3,000, you insist on reverse thinking and unswervingly. If you are trapped in heavy positions, as long as you are not chasing the rise at a high level and just breaking the decline, you should be patient and persistent; while those who are light or even short positions can adopt the method of buying low in batches for high-quality products you are familiar with. Pay attention to two points when operating this week: First, if you are trapped with heavy positions, you will still be patient in general. If you have consecutively strong and there will be opportunities to undo the concession and make a profit, you can reduce some positions first, especially at 3100-3150 and above; if you buy low and add positions below 3000 before, you can also consider taking advantage of the continuous strong positions, cashing in the profit chips that are low and waiting for the low-price opportunity to fall back, and continue to hold high-price chips; second, if you miss the short position last week, you should not chase the rise in the short term. You can wait until the fallback (or take out the second step) and buy high-quality core varieties that are still accumulating momentum at 3030-3000 and below (2985-2956) and choose the opportunity to buy low and still accumulate momentum at low levels.
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