National Day holiday is still in progress, and the oil market is also constantly changing. As of now, although the expected adjustment range of domestic refined oil prices is still in negative value operation, it is very likely that new changes will occur after the National Day holiday. Let’s analyze it together!
For some domestic regions, the price of gasoline and diesel in Shandong independent refineries is relatively weak, among which the price of gasoline is 8434 yuan/ton, down 94 yuan/ton or -1.10% from September 30 before the holiday; while the price of diesel is 8735 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or -0.78% month-on-month. Due to the restrictions on Shandong expressway during the inter-disciplinary period, and the epidemic situation in Dongying , Dongying , the industry is reluctant to pick up goods, and the refinery shipment situation has also performed poorly in the past two days. So how will Shandong gasoline and diesel operate after the holiday? Let’s make a prediction and analysis below.
First of all, due to the long National Day holiday, Shandong Expressway restricted travel from 1 to 7, and the epidemic in Dongying area has reappeared, making the two-day shipment of Shandong local refining unsatisfactory during the two-day holiday. Gasoline and diesel production and sales are both flat, which will also lead to the accumulation of refinery inventory. However, the current demand for diesel is strong, and there are many offshore orders in the early stage, and some orders still need to be delivered during the holiday, and diesel inventory is expected to rise slightly; on the other hand, gasoline is dragged down by the epidemic, and offshore transactions in the early stage are also average, so it is expected that the gasoline inventory in Shandong independent refineries will have a lot of room for growth after the holiday.
In terms of operating rate, the utilization rate of Shandong independent refineries' normal pressure reduction capacity was 65.63%, up 1.61 percentage points from last week and down 2.37 percentage points year-on-year. Due to the previous force majeure factor, the operating rate of Shandong independent refineries once fell to 61.83%, guiding the price of gasoline and diesel continues to rise, and the profit of Shandong independent refineries has gradually increased. Therefore, some refineries have also increased their processing load due to their own production profits. According to data, as of September 29, the comprehensive refinery profit of Shandong independent refineries was 875.52 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.70% month-on-month and 23.10% year-on-year. In addition, the issuance of a new batch of refined oil quotas has ensured the raw materials for some refineries. Therefore, with considerable profits, it is expected that the operating rate of Shandong's independent refinery may continue to rise after the holiday.
comprehensive or above, after the holiday, there may be expectations of gasoline and diesel inventory in Shandong's independent refineries, and with strong desire to discharge inventory, a certain concession sales strategy may be adopted, and the overall Shandong operating rate will continue to rise after the holiday. In this way, the probability of gasoline and diesel prices weaken after the holiday is high. However, with the boost of urgent demand and large orders still out of stock between the holidays, the decline is expected to narrow.
But it is worth noting that the market released major positive news before the holiday, that is, the fifth batch of refined oil and low-sulfur ship fuel export quotas will be issued in 2022, and the total amount of refined oil and low-sulfur ship fuel quotas will reach 15 million tons. Among them, the total amount of refined oil quota is 13.25 million tons! Then, on the premise of ensuring domestic supply, the newly added export tasks may increase the output of the main units to Shandong's independent refineries. At that time, when orders pour in, the refineries will have sufficient confidence in supporting prices. After the holiday, the trend of gasoline and diesel first suppressed and then rose may begin to appear.
Today is October 4th. Finally, let’s take a look at the new price of 92 and 95 gasoline after adjustment in , Sinopec and PetroChina gas stations. The following is only an example to illustrate the following. Please refer to the table below for the new price of 92 and 95 gasoline after adjustment in 31 regions of the country.
Shenyang Gas Station today's National VI 0# diesel priced at 7.77 yuan/liter; Shenyang Gas Station today's National VI E92# gasoline priced at 8.16 yuan/liter; Shenyang Gas Station today's National VI E95# gasoline priced at 8.70 yuan/liter.
Suzhou Region National VI 0# diesel today 7.82 yuan/liter; Suzhou 92# gasoline today 8.16 yuan/liter; Suzhou 95# gasoline today 8.68 yuan/liter.
Today, the price of No. 92 gasoline in Hunan is 8.13 yuan/liter, today the price of No. 95 gasoline in Hunan is 8.65 yuan/liter, and today the price of No. 0 diesel in Hunan is 7.93 yuan/liter.
Today's price of No. 92 gasoline in Chengdu, Sichuan is 8.28 yuan/liter, today's price of No. 95 gasoline in Chengdu, Sichuan is 8.85 yuan/liter, and today's price of No. 0 diesel in Chengdu, Sichuan is 7.91 yuan/liter.The prices above
are for reference only. The oil price fluctuates in the market. For specific retail prices of different models of gasoline and diesel, please refer to the real-time quotation of the local gas station.
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