Today is October 4, 2022. Half of the National Day holiday has passed. I believe that all the old friends are still enjoying their own holidays. Let’s take a look at the oil market news. According to the current data, oil prices are still in the expected stage of lowering. We wil

Today is October 4, 2022. Half of the National Day holiday has passed. I believe that all the old friends are still enjoying their own holidays. Let’s take a look at the oil market news. According to the current data, oil prices are still in the expected stage of lowering. We will wait for the oil market to change in the future.

In September, the average trading price of China's 92# gasoline market was 9176 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 1.36%; the average trading price of China's 0# diesel market was 8874 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 5.35%. At the beginning of the month, with the continued rise in market procurement and external procurement prices, as well as expectations of decline in supply and positive demand, domestic sales units actively built momentum to promote prices, especially diesel's rise, and prices in many places have several times sanitized the wholesale price limit. However, due to the weakening of crude oil cost support and the repeated impact of local regional epidemics, the market's wait-and-see mentality gradually arises, and prices tend to return rationally.

html Production and supply of refined oil industry fell in September. There were 14 refineries involved in maintenance in September, a decrease from the number of refineries in August. The total capacity involved in maintenance was 33.1 million tons/year, and a decrease of 3.9 million tons/year from the maintenance capacity in August; a total of 2.2988 million tons of crude oil losses were 2.2988 million tons.

In September 2022, the production and sales rate of gasoline in China's independent refinery was 96.8%, a month-on-month; the production and sales rate of diesel was 103.83%, a month-on-month. This month's production declined, resulting in a decrease in the base of production and sales. Gasoline and diesel sales fell slightly.

At the end of September 2022, the commercial gasoline inventory was 13.6434 million tons, an increase of 0.06% from the end of last month, and the average inventory was 13.7512 million tons, an increase of 0.9% from the previous month. The commercial diesel inventory was 15.1239 million tons, down 7.12% from the end of last month, and the average inventory was 16.1648 million tons, down 2.01% from the previous month.

Cost forecast: The international crude oil market price may have room for upward in October. Although the market continues to put pressure on the economic outlook, the geopolitical risks may still heat up after the "referendum" of the four Ukrainian states entering Russia, and Western sanctions will undoubtedly increase. At the same time, the European energy supply problem cannot be properly resolved after the weather turns cold. It is expected that WTI may run in the range of $78-89/barrel and Brent may run in the range of $85-96/barrel.

Supply forecast: The capacity utilization rate of China's refinery normal pressure reduction devices is expected to rise slightly in October, with fewer refineries for main refineries. In addition, the rumors of export quota are relaxed, the planned production of refineries may increase, but there will be important meetings in October, and production restrictions may be carried out, especially for independent refineries, which leads to more uncertain factors in October. The plan may also be adjusted at any time at the beginning of the month. According to the current plan information, the overall utilization rate is expected to increase slightly in October.

Inventory forecast: The impact of the epidemic in October and major domestic activities, consumption is lower than expected, while output is expected to continue to grow in October, and the supply and demand gap is likely to expand, and gasoline and diesel inventory may accumulate to varying degrees.

Demand forecast: gasoline has been boosted during the National Day holiday. Considering the reasons for epidemic prevention and control, short-distance tours and surrounding tours may become the mainstream choices. The increase in car travel frequency will drive the rapid growth of gasoline consumption. However, there is great uncertainty in the epidemic after the holiday, which may affect the later consumption of gasoline. Therefore, overall gasoline consumption is expected to increase slightly in October. In terms of diesel, although the construction infrastructure has entered the stage of rushing the construction period within the year, the autumn harvest has come to an end, and the boost of agricultural oil is weakened. At the same time, industrial and mining projects may have a certain impact, so there is a expectation of a slight increase in diesel consumption.

Overall, in October, the planned production of gasoline and diesel in the main refineries in the supply area increased, and the planned export volume of gasoline and diesel increased month-on-month, while the planned export volume of diesel is more than gasoline, and the subsequent domestic spot expectation of diesel is still relatively small. The demand is facing the epidemic and the reduction of air-conditioning oil, gasoline demand is on a downward trend, and diesel engineering is rushing to support demand. There is an expectation of a lower price adjustment in early October, which is bad for the oil market. The price of gasoline and diesel will show a downward trend next month.

Today is October 4th. Finally, let’s take a look at the latest 92 and 95 gasoline prices in various places after adjustments of , Sinopec and CNOOC gas stations. The following prices are for reference only. Please refer to the actual transactions in local gas stations.

Hunan gas station oil price: Hunan National VI 0# diesel price after adjustment 7.93 yuan/liter; Hunan National VI E92# gasoline price after adjustment 8.13 yuan/liter; Hunan National VI E95# gasoline price after adjustment 8.65 yuan/liter; Hunan National VI E98# gasoline price after adjustment 9.45 yuan/liter.

Tibet gasoline limit of 9.06 yuan/liter today; Tibet gasoline limit of 95 gasoline limit of 9.58 yuan/liter today; Tibet gasoline limit of 98 gasoline limit of 10.68 yuan/liter today; Tibet gasoline limit of 0 diesel at No. 0 today.

Yunnan gas station 92 gasoline price after adjustment is 8.34 yuan/liter; Yunnan gas station 95 gasoline price after adjustment is 8.95 yuan/liter; Yunnan gas station 98 gasoline price after adjustment is 9.63 yuan/liter; Yunnan gas station No. 0 diesel price after adjustment is 7.93 yuan/liter.

Shanghai gas station 92 gasoline after adjustment price 8.15 yuan/liter; Shanghai gas station 95 gasoline after adjustment price 8.67 yuan/liter; Shanghai gas station 98 gasoline after adjustment price 9.67 yuan/liter; Shanghai gas station No. 0 diesel after adjustment price 7.84 yuan/liter.

Please refer to the attached table after the adjustment of gasoline at gas stations in other regions. The above prices are for reference only. Please refer to the real-time quotations of gas stations in various places.