Introduction: We are still enjoying the joy of the holiday, but Hong Kong stock has started trading, and overseas markets are also underway. In addition to A shares itself, including Hong Kong stocks, overseas markets and bulk, they are all the objects of our focus. Some linkage performance cannot be ignored, or in other words, A-shares will inevitably be affected by objective and subjective influence, and there are several aspects that are worth our detailed discussion.
First of all, let’s take a look at Hong Kong stocks. During the day, Hang Seng Index hit a new low, falling below 17,000 points during the session, and then began to rise rapidly after 13.30 points, and then maintained a rebound and fluctuation at a high level. Hang Seng Index has fallen by more than 45% since February last year, and has fallen by nearly 27% this year. The decline from the end of June to the present has reached 23%, so the adjustment is not small.
Why did Hong Kong stocks fall? We believe that the core influencing factor lies in liquidity. Hong Kong stocks are more sensitive to the liquidity of foreign currencies. We only need to look at the data of the two foreign exchange markets to understand. For example, the current exchange ratio is 0.9048:1, and the lowest to the highest increase this year exceeds 13%, which is consistent with the direction of our foreign exchange market fluctuation. Therefore, this shows that the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar are positively correlated. In other words, Hong Kong stocks are very significantly affected by liquidity.
Therefore, the trend of the Hong Kong dollar is just the opposite of the Hong Kong stock market. The liquidity of Hong Kong stocks is in the first place outflows, and the other is absorbed by the foreign exchange market. Therefore, the decline of Hong Kong stocks is caused by changes in fundamentals. Subjectively, if the foreign exchange market does not stabilize, or if money cannot come out of the foreign exchange market and flows to the Hong Kong stock market, then Hong Kong stocks are likely to have a low point. In addition, if Hong Kong stocks want to rise, in addition to domestic capital going south, foreign capital must also stabilize. The foreign capital here refers to foreign capital directly traded on the Hong Kong stock market.
is reflected in today's Hong Kong stock market. There are two major phenomena worth seeing:
1. The Hong Kong stock Hang Seng Mainland Real Estate Index led the rise, with an increase of up to 5.35%. Obviously, this is because of several major positive news before the holiday, so real estate listed on the Hong Kong stock market performed very well. This is objectively stimulating A-shares. The sensitivity of funds to the real estate industry obviously has more preferences. As one of the major industries of Hong Kong stocks, there is a possibility of excess returns.
2. The Hang Seng Financial Industry in Hong Kong stocks led the decline, including the Hang Seng Mainland Bank Index. It is logical that the linkage of financial real estate is very strong, and this extreme differentiation should not occur. However, we believe that the Hong Kong stock finance (bank) led the decline was mainly caused by news. Hong Kong Stock Exchange data showed that Li Ka-shing reduced its holdings in a certain savings bank to below 11% on 9.29, which was the first time in more than three years.
So, today a certain savings bank in Hong Kong stocks fell by more than 11%. Obviously, the A-share savings bank that came back after the holiday will inevitably be dragged down. This reminds us of the reduction of holdings of Buffett in early July on a certain Yadi in Hong Kong stocks. Although the status of the two stocks is different, due to the celebrity effect, there will inevitably be some funds to follow, and we need to pay attention to subsequent development.
Look at the overseas market again. In addition to the rise of Nikkei 225, almost both the Asian and European sessions were falling, and the FTSE 100 in the UK fell by more than 1%. At the same time, last Friday's US stock also fell, and the Dow Jones and S&P 500 hit lows one after another. Therefore, the performance of global stock markets is not very good, or in other words, when global fundamentals are in consistency or even crisis, it is difficult for A-shares to survive alone...
In terms of bulk, the most popular thing at this stage may be energy. Note that this refers to global energy. Among them, the most popular ones at the moment are not only new energy, but even the more important part of the stage is old energy, mainly coal and petroleum and petrochemicals. Today I will mainly talk about petroleum and petrochemicals.
Brent oil and WTI crude oil both rose by nearly 5% intraday, but domestic crude oil futures are in a state of closing, but due to the consistency of oil prices, A-shares after the holiday will inevitably reflect. The reason why international oil prices have risen sharply is subjectively believed that it is due to the stimulus of news. On the 10.5th, OPEC will discuss the oil production cut plan at the meeting.
Judging from the trend of international oil prices, it has almost been a roller coaster this year. The high point occurred in early March, exceeding US$130 per barrel. Now it has fallen back to a considerable decline. However, if OPEC cuts production, combined with the overseas situation, we believe that the production cuts have the phenomenon of stabilizing oil prices. Oil prices in the same period are negatively correlated with the trend of the US dollar, but we do not want oil prices to rise.
If oil prices rise to high again, inflation will rise. Overseas inflation reduction measures last for so long, it may be in vain. In fact, high inflation overseas this year is not driven by demand. Therefore, although OPEC's expected reduction in production is conducive to stabilizing oil prices, it will not help the global economy. In other words, if oil prices rise again, overseas liquidity tightening may be greater, and for the stock market, the harm is more than good...
It is said that since the beginning of this year, the global market has been revolving around energy, triggered by geopolitics at the beginning of the year, which is a typical "new and old energy" dispute. Therefore, it is reflected in the A-share market . The first half of the year (mainly the second quarter) is the rapid counterattack of new energy. During the period, with the fluctuations of old energy, the topic of old energy exceeded that of new energy in the second half of the year. Now it seems that this phenomenon may continue, but it may not be easy to make the real demand exceed the second quarter.
So, although the A-share market is closed this week, when you come back after the holiday, it will inevitably first reflect the status of the holiday. Hong Kong stocks have some linkage in A-shares, so first we must pay attention to the status of banks and real estate. Secondly, old energy sources such as petroleum and petrochemicals may cause new waves. Finally, the trend of global stock markets objectively affects A-shares, so the focus of this week should be Hong Kong stocks, oil prices and real estate. The probability of linkage reactions after the holiday is very high...
points to pay attention to and do not get lost. I am Mu Yi, aiming to share my understanding, profit and loss are the same source, and knowledge and action are one!
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